2020 Vision for Athy - Entire Document - Kildare.ie

6.2 Employment
Because of the uncertainty involved in long-term projections of labour force participation rates (LFPR) the CSO 2
restricted their projection period up to and including 2011. Two scenarios have been developed, the first (M1)
being the one consistent with the existing Irish economy and the labour market continuing to perform strongly in
comparison with other countries, and the second (M2) taking a more pessimistic view on Irish economic growth
rates and therefore net migration.
To be able to provide some indication of the labour force in 2016 a participation rate of 45% of the total population
as a continuation of Scenario M2 is being assumed. Although the M1 Scenario is considered the more likely one
on a national level, the peripheral location of Athy suggests the application of the M2 Scenario. At a population of
20,000 in 2016 this means a labour force of 9,000 persons. (It should be noted that for the purpose of forecasting
the participation rate in this section is the proportion of persons in the labour force as a percentage of the total
population as opposed to a percentage of all persons in the 15+ age group. In Section 3.3, following the CSO
methodology, the participation rate is taken as the proportion of persons in the workforce aged 15+ expressed as a
percentage of all persons in that age group.)
In an ideal situation the total labour force would be employed in the Study Area itself. This scenario does not take
regard of outward migration but assumes that outward and inward migration balance each other and that the total
number of people working in the Study Area equals the labour force of 9,000 persons.
Following this methodology and taking regard to jobs likely to be provided by granted and pending planning
applications (see Section 3.4) an additional 6,700 jobs have to be created in the timeframe of this Study.
Participation Rate: 45%
Labour Force: 9,000 (at a population of 20,000)
Existing Jobs 2002: 1,760
Jobs Provided by Planning Applications: 600
Additional Jobs between 2002-2016: 6,700
Average Jobs to be created per annum: 480
It is the vision of the study that Athy will provide employment across as broad a spectrum as possible. However, in
order to project the amount of land needed for various employment sectors, some assumptions were necessary.
These are based on the current split in Athy between retail, office, industry and warehousing and the prediction
that this split will change in the future in line with national trends. These trends indicate a decline in industrial
employment and an increase in office employment and warehousing.
In terms of specific sites for each of the viable land use scenarios considered in section 7 the following site
coverages and occupancy ratios were assumed:
Site Coverage Assumptions
− Retail: 0.66
− Industrial: 0.4
− Warehousing: 0.3
− Office: 0.7
Occupancy Rates
− Retailing: 1 no. employee per 50 sq m
− Industry: 1 no. employee per 50 sq m
− Warehousing: 1 no. employee per 100 sq m
− Office: 1 no. employee per 32.5 sq m
2 CSO, Population and Labour Force Projections 2001-2031, July 1999.
Athy IFPLUT Study 53 Final Report December 2004