Research 350 - NZ Transport Agency

5. CONCLUSIONS
• Question 4.1: Is the upgrading of transport links within or to/from a particular
(‘disadvantaged’) region likely to be an effective means of enhancing the economic
development of that region, and in what circumstances?
• Question 4.2: How are the distributional impacts of transport investment on particular
regions/areas best assessed; and how do the results of such assessments relate to
SCBA assessments of national economic costs and benefits?
• Question 4.3: How are the other (non-geographic) distributional impacts of transport
investment on different social/demographic and market segments best assessed?
• Question 4.4: Would the assessments of distributional (geographic, socio/demographic
etc) impacts of transport investments provide useful additional information (additional
to the overall impact assessment) for decision-makers?
The answers to these questions, along with other key points of interest and relevance, can be
summarised as follows:
5.3.2 Question 4.1
• Upgrading of transport links within or to/from a given ‘disadvantaged’ region, in and
of itself is insufficient for enhancing regional economic development. As is the case for
national development, transport is, in general, a necessary but not sufficient condition
for regional development. There is a clear need for other supporting programs and
infrastructure to be in place.
• Further, economic theory offers no conclusive guidance regarding the distributional
impact of transport investment on specific regional economies. Issues such as the ‘two
way road problem’, the need for supporting measures, well developed transport
networks and economic displacement effects cloud the ultimate impacts of transport
investment on economic development within a specified ‘target region’.
• Analysts such as O’Fallon (2004) have stressed that regional growth may simply result
in the displacement of economic activity from one region to another. Though she may
overstate her case, displacement effects are a real issue.
5.3.3 Question 4.2
• While SCBA offers, perhaps, the best method of assessing the geographic distributional
effects of transport investment, the difficulties of ringfencing regional growth effects
using either SCBA can be significant. A possible (or partial) solution may be the use of
origin-destination (O-D) data, other survey work and/or census data to identify regional
beneficiaries, though this may be complicated by the nature of regional benefits and
migratory movements over project timeframes.
• If SCBA is not feasible within a given context, the best approach may be the use of
descriptive and/or qualitative indicators (e.g. likely changes in regional income, land
values) in conjunction with a global SCBA.
• I-O modelling could be used as a complement to SCBA at the regional level if there is a
need to assess economic impacts as opposed to benefits. CGE analysis is generally not
practical at a regional level.
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