Research 350 - NZ Transport Agency

More documents

Recommendations

Info

ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT BENEFITS OF TRANSPORT INVESTMENT implies that simply relaying on I-O modelling to provide guidance for long term policymaking decisions could have deleterious effects on a given national economy (i.e. inefficient growth which simply suck in more and more inputs). Conversely, the utility of SCBA as providing a foundation for efficient outcomes is reinforced. 134
APPENDIX I Appendix I: Predicting the Impacts of Road Investment on Gross State Product and Employment (George Docwra and Guy West, Contributed paper presented at 23rd Australasian <strong>Transport</strong> <strong>Research</strong> Forum, Perth, Australia, Sept-Oct 1999) AI.1 Synopsis As its name suggests, the focus of this paper is on examining the utility of various approaches to measuring the impacts of road projects on regional output and employment. The authors view SCBA as useful, but also see it as providing limited guidance due to the fact that policymakers often wish to have a wider test of ‘public benefit’ than the economic efficiency impacts captured by SCBA (i.e. one including measures of regional employment, output and income). As such, they see Input-Output (I-O) and/or General Equilibrium (CGE) modelling as complementing the results of SCBA. They indicate that applying a model which provides knowledge of employment and Gross State Product (GSP) outcomes may be useful for a variety of reasons, including: • It may assist in obtaining funding allocations. • There may be conflict between the results of SCBA and employment implications of a given project. For example, projects with low benefit-cost ratios could generate high levels of employment. Using SCBA in conjunction with other models can help decisionmakers identify when choices need to be made between conflicting policy goals. • Various projects may have different impacts on regional development. These may not match differences in benefit-cost ratios. The authors compare what they term the Applied General Equilibrium (ACGE) and inputoutput econometric (IOEC) models. The second of these appears to combine standard I-O modelling with some additional econometric data. In general, the IOEC model is preferred to the ACGE approach for regional analysis. This relates to the authors’ specification of the properties which an ‘ideal regional model’ for road investment should possess. These include: • Use of a bottom-up modelling approach. • Comprehensive supply-side specification supplemented by data on capacity limits and endogenised prices. • Integration with the national economy, allowing for feed back interactions to measure both region-specific and national policy impacts at the regional level. This would include an inter-regional model to allow for flow-on effects to surrounding regions. • A fully comprehensive labour market sub-model, allowing for differential skills, labour mobility and turnover. The authors also note that only IOEC modelling can adequately cater for the short run dynamics of road investment programs. In addition, the lack of dynamics in ACGE models 135
Page 1 and 2:
Economic Development Benefits of Tr
Page 3 and 4:
An important note for the reader Th
Page 5 and 6:
Contents Executive Summary ........
Page 7 and 8:
Executive summary The purpose of th
Page 9 and 10:
modified CGE modelling. However, ad
Page 11 and 12:
• Question 4.3: How are the other
Page 13:
Abstract This report reviews the ma
Page 16 and 17:
ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT BENEFITS OF TR
Page 18 and 19:
Page 20 and 21:
Page 22 and 23:
Page 24 and 25:
Page 26 and 27:
Page 28 and 29:
Page 30 and 31:
Page 32 and 33:
Page 34 and 35:
Page 36 and 37:
Page 38 and 39:
Page 40 and 41:
Page 42 and 43:
Page 44 and 45:
Page 46 and 47:
Page 48 and 49:
Page 50 and 51:
Page 52 and 53:
Page 54 and 55:
Page 56 and 57:
Page 58 and 59:
Page 60 and 61:
Page 62 and 63:
Page 64 and 65:
Page 66 and 67:
Page 68 and 69:
Page 70 and 71:
Page 72 and 73:
Page 74 and 75:
Page 76 and 77:
Page 78 and 79:
Page 80 and 81:
Page 82 and 83:
Page 84 and 85: ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT BENEFITS OF TR
Page 140: ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT BENEFITS OF TR
show all

Research 350 - NZ Transport Agency

You also want an ePaper? Increase the reach of your titles

Delete template?

Save as template?