TABLE OF CONTENTS - Everything R744

Market Forecasts until 2020
The first part of the North American natural refrigerant
industry survey, which was answered by 559 individuals,
was uniform for all respondents. In the second part of the
survey, individuals had to select their field of expertise
among six different industry sectors: heating (residential,
commercial, and industrial), refrigeration (domestic),
refrigeration (commercial), refrigeration (industrial), air
conditioning (stationary), and air conditioning (mobile).
Mobile air conditioning and heating were excluded in
the final results due to a lack of data.
Each industry sector was represented to a different
extent, ranging from just over 164 responses for the
commercial refrigeration sector, 162 responses for the
light commercial refrigeration sector, 110 responses for
the industrial refrigeration sector, 54 responses for the
stationary AC sector, and 22 responses for the domestic
refrigeration sector, to 21 responses for the mobile air
conditioning sector.
The high response rate for the commercial and light
commercial refrigeration sectors confirms that there is
a growing interest in natural refrigerant technologies
in these areas, particularly concerning CO 2
technology
for supermarkets and hydrocarbons, which were SNAP
approved in 2012, for applications like ice cream freezers
and bottle coolers.
RAPIDLY EXPANDING MARKETS
Retailers have started exploring refrigeration systems
that incorporate CO 2
and other natural refrigerants, such
as ammonia and hydrocarbons, in the hopes of reducing
or even eliminating entirely their use of synthetic
refrigerants. This has been one of the major HVAC&R
developments in North America in recent years. In the
US, several retailers have invested in CO 2
secondary or
cascade systems, while in Canada, the number of CO 2
transcritical installations is on the rise. Despite the fact
that with just over 120 installations, the equivalent of
0-5% of the market share, CO 2
refrigeration applications
currently represent only a niche market in North America,
almost half of the natural refrigerant commercial
refrigeration experts (45%) believed that by 2020, the
market share of CO 2
could rise to more than 20%. In fact,
CO 2
in commercial refrigeration was expected to be the
most rapidly expanding natural refrigerant market.
MODEST GROWTH MARKETS
Hydrocarbons represent a more modest growth market
for the commercial refrigeration sector. Almost half
(42%) of those questioned responded that hydrocarbons
would have a market share of more than 10% by 2020.
It should be noted that, without changes to standards,
laws, and regulations, the 150g charge limit per
system constrains the transition to hydrocarbons in
the commercial refrigeration sector. In all likelihood,
this is reflected in the prediction that hydrocarbons
would have a lower market share than CO 2
. Ammonia
ranked third in predictions for market growth in the
commercial refrigeration sector. Nearly half (48%) of
respondents forecast a market share above 5% for
ammonia by 2020. Historically, fears concerning toxicity
have hindered the wide scale use of ammonia in North
American supermarkets. However, thanks to significant
improvements in system design, reductions in charge
sizes, and better safety features, several retail chains are
now using ammonia cascade systems in pilot projects.
In the industrial refrigeration sector a significant change
in the market share of CO 2
and hydrocarbons is expected.
The majority (72%) of respondents believed that, by
2020, CO 2
industrial refrigeration could reach a market
share of more than 10%. A third (35%) of respondents
thought that hydrocarbon industrial refrigeration could
reach a market share of more than 10%.
For stationary AC, the market share for ammonia has
the potential to grow to more than 10% by 2020,
according to 41% of respondents. Respondents assume
a market share of less than 5% in today’s markets. Half
of respondents also believe that the market share of
hydrocarbon technology will exceed 10% by 2020.
STABLE MARKETS
In the industrial refrigeration market, ammonia has long
been the preferred refrigerant for many applications, in
particular in the food industry. This was evident in the
survey responses. Half of respondents (51%) believe the
market share of ammonia in industrial refrigeration to be
more than 50% today, decreasing ever so slightly in 2020
to 46% of respondents. Interestingly, it is widely reported
that ammonia has a 95% penetration in the industrial
refrigeration sector, which, when compared to the survey
responses, suggests that respondents are hesitant to
paint too positive a picture for natural refrigerants, even
when it comes to an established technology such as
ammonia.
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