TABLE OF CONTENTS - Everything R744

their business activities. When calculating the arithmetic
mean across all responses, a share of 38% of natural
refrigerant-connected activities among all respondents
is reached. Based on the results, four (unequal) groups
can be distinguished: 1) those having either only
recently started NR activities or those still lagging behind
after lack of investment in NR 2) those growing their
NR business, also called the "late majority" in product
adoption cycles. 3) those catching up with the leaders,
or the “early majority” and 4) the leaders in NR adoption.
Group 1 accounts for 40% of respondents, with a 1-10%
NR share in business activities; Group 2 accounts for
23%, using 11-40% of NR; Group 3 comprises 9% of
respondents, using 41-70% of NR; and Group 4 is made
up of 27% of respondents with a dominant share of
natural refrigerants of 71-100%.
TYPE OF REFRIGERANTS USED NOW & IN THE
FUTURE
Among the respondents already providing or using
natural refrigerants, 66% used carbon dioxide in
their products and/or services, followed by 54% who
used ammonia, and 52% who used hydrocarbons.
As multiple responses were possible, overlaps for
corporations offering / using various natural refrigerants
were accounted for. Water (26%) and air (15%) were
represented to a minor extent among respondents.
For the sub-group of end-users (91 responses), the
distribution was different from the total response
set. Two-thirds (67%) said they use ammonia today, a
reflection of the high representation of end-users from
the industrial refrigeration and air-conditioning sector
in the survey. 58% used carbon dioxide, one third (33%)
hydrocarbons, 28% water, and 14% air refrigerant.
The second related question investigated which
refrigerants respondents would use in which year.
Responses were intended to reflect industry trends and
provide an indication of how fast change would happen
inside the HVAC&R industry and among end-users. The
question looked at all five natural working fluids to
investigate the development trends for water and air,
which currently show lower application rates than the
remaining three groups. Logically, results only reflected
responses from those that indicated the intention to
use NRs in the future. Hence, the total response set
was reduced to 312 individuals. Multiple options were
possible per refrigerant, meaning that respondents
could indicate if they would use a certain NR in 2012,
2015, and/or 2020. For the year 2012, most respondents
used ammonia (71%), followed closely by hydrocarbons
(67%) and CO 2
(67%). All values, with the exception of
air, decreased in the years 2015 and 2020, indicating
that respondents either thought NR solutions would
be adopted immediately (in 2012), or that they were
still hesitating about decisions for the years to come.
Noteworthy is that, respondents saw the potential of
air as a refrigerant first declining from 2012 to 2015, and
then growing again. 37% believed that in 2020, water
would be used as a refrigerant, and 43% believed the
same for air refrigerant, a significantly higher percentage
than for ammonia, hydrocarbons and CO 2
.
BUSINESS & POLICY CLIMATE FOR NR
When asked how the business & policy climate in their
country of location would develop for individual natural
refrigerants, 78% of respondents indicated that, on
average, the conditions for natural refrigerants overall
would be either “very favorable" or “rather favorable.”
Across all natural refrigerants, respondents felt
developments were “rather favorable” (2.96).
With a value of 2.99 out of 4.0, the current business
& policy climate seems to be the most positive for
the refrigerant CO 2
. 78% of respondents thought the
business & policy climate for CO 2
was either “very
favorable” or “rather favorable,” compared to 63% for
ammonia, and 52% for hydrocarbons. It must be noted
that for hydrocarbon refrigerants, the “rather negative”
option was the most pronounced (40% of all responses),
supporting the assumption that unsolved issues
regarding uniform standards and limited application
potential due to unsolved legislative approval are
affecting the HC industry. Taking into account the “very
negative” option for hydrocarbons, nearly half of all
respondents (48%) thought the current situation was
unsatisfactory.
In the sub-group of respondents not using NR today
(148 responses), fewer participants believed that
developments were positive. For NRs generally, 65%
nevertheless believed the situation was “very favorable”
or “rather favorable” (average rating: 2.8), while 64%
believed the same was true for CO 2
(average rating:
2.8). Among this response group the situation for
hydrocarbons was rated to be better than that for
ammonia, with 55% saying conditions were beneficial
for hydrocarbons (average rating: 2.6), while only 49%
said the same about ammonia (average rating: 2.5).
It needs to be noted that refrigerants air and water
were not included as individual choices, but it can be
assumed that the category “Natural Refrigerants Overall”
contained evaluations regarding these two groups.
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