Nevada Greenhouse Gas Inventory and Reference Case Projections

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FINAL Nevada GHG Inventory and Reference Case Projection CCS, July 2007 Nevada Greenhouse Gas Emissions: Sources and Trends Table 1 provides a summary of annual GHG emissions estimated for Nevada by sector for the years 1990, 2000, 2005, 2010, and 2020. Details on the methods and data sources used to construct these draft estimates are provided in the appendices to this report. In the sections below, we discuss GHG emission sources (positive, or gross, emissions) and sinks (negative emissions) separately in order to identify trends, projections and uncertainties clearly for each. The next section of the report provides a summary of the historical emissions (1990 through 2005) followed by a summary of the forecasted reference-case projection-year emissions (2006 through 2020) and key uncertainties. We also provide an overview of the general methodology, principals, and guidelines followed for preparing the inventories. Appendices A through H provide the detailed methods, data sources, and assumptions for each GHG sector. Appendix I provides information on 2002 and 2018 BC estimates for Nevada. CCS estimated that BC emissions in 2002 ranged from 1.7 – 3.5 MMtCO 2 e with a mid-point of 2.6 MMtCO 2 e. A range is estimated based on the uncertainty in the global modeling analyses that serve as the basis for converting BC mass emissions into their carbon dioxide equivalents (see Appendix I for more details). Since the IPCC has not yet assigned a global warming potential for BC, CCS has excluded these estimates from the GHG summary shown in Table 1 below. Future year estimates (2018) are estimated to drop by about 40% after new Federal emissions standards for new diesel engines and new fuel sulfur content standards are phased in. Appendix I contains a detailed breakdown of emissions contribution by source sector. Appendix J provides background information on GHGs and climate-forcing aerosols. Nevada Division of 2 Center for Climate Strategies Environmental Protection www.climatestrategies.us
FINAL Nevada GHG Inventory and Reference Case Projection CCS, July 2007 Table 1. Nevada Historical and Reference Case GHG Emissions, by Sector a (Million Metric Tons CO 2 e) 1990 2000 2005 2010 2020 Explanatory Notes for Projections Electricity Consumption 13.0 19.0 20.8 20.5 27.4 Coal 15.1 18.0 17.9 7.8 11.0 See electric sector assumptions Natural Gas 1.3 6.6 8.3 10.8 11.3 in appendix Oil 0.3 0.06 0.02 0.03 0.03 Net Imported Electricity -3.7 -5.6 -5.3 1.9 5.2 Res/Comm/Ind (RCI) 4.4 5.9 6.4 7.8 10.7 Coal 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.6 0.7 Based on USDOE regional projections Natural Gas 2.2 3.6 4.1 5.0 6.9 Based on USDOE regional projections Oil 1.9 1.8 1.8 2.2 3.0 Based on USDOE regional projections Wood (CH 4 and N 2 O) 0.02 0.03 0.02 0.03 0.03 Based on USDOE regional projections Transportation 9.6 14.7 16.1 18.4 24.7 Motor Gasoline 5.7 8.3 9.1 10.1 13.1 VMT projections from MPO’s Diesel 1.4 2.6 3.4 4.3 6.6 VMT projections from MPO’s Natural Gas, LPG, other 0.04 0.06 0.08 0.1 0.2 Based on USDOE regional projections Jet Fuel and Aviation Gasoline 2.5 3.7 3.5 3.9 4.8 Aircraft operations projections from FAA Fossil Fuel Industry 0.4 0.5 0.7 0.7 0.9 Natural Gas Industry 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.9 Oil Industry 0.03 0.01 0.004 0.003 0.001 Industrial Processes 0.2 1.7 2.2 2.7 4.0 Cement Manufacture (CO 2 ) 0.000 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.4 Increase based on current trend to 2009, then USDOE to 2020 Increase based on current trend to 2009, then USDOE to 2020 Based on NV Nonmetallic Minerals employment projections (2004-2014) Lime Manufacture (CO 2 ) 0.000 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.8 Same as above Limestone & Dolomite Use Same as above (CO 2 ) 0.000 0.04 0.03 0.04 0.06 Soda Ash (CO 2 ) 0.01 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.02 Based on USGS projections Nitric Acid Production (N 2 O) Based on national projections (US State 0.000 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 Dept.) ODS Substitutes (HFC, PFC, EPA 2004 ODS cost study report and SF 6 ) 0.002 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.5 Electric Power T & D (SF 6 ) 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.09 0.05 Based on national projections (USEPA) Waste Management 0.8 1.4 1.4 1.5 2.2 Solid Waste Management 0.7 1.2 1.1 1.2 1.7 Historical waste emplacement rates Wastewater Management 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.4 Projections based on population Agriculture 1.6 1.8 1.6 1.7 1.8 Enteric Fermentation 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.8 Historical emissions for 1990-2002 Manure Management 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 Historical emissions for 1990-2002 Agricultural Soils (emissions) 0.8 0.9 0.8 0.8 0.8 Historical emissions for 1990-2002, except growth rate for fertilizers based on NV population growth for 1996-2020 Agricultural Residue Burning 0.0001 0.0001 0.0001 0.0001 0.0001 No growth assumed Total Gross Emissions 30.2 45.6 49.6 53.8 72.4 increase relative to 1990 51% 64% 78% 140% Forestry -4.8 -4.8 -4.8 -4.8 -4.8 Agricultural Soils (sinks) -0.2 -0.2 -0.2 -0.2 -0.2 Historical and projected emissions held at 2004 level (excludes soil carbon flux). Historical and projected emissions held at 1997 level. Net Emissions (incl. forestry*) 25.1 40.5 44.5 48.7 67.4 a Totals may not equal exact sum of subtotals shown in this table due to independent rounding. NA = not available. Nevada Division of 3 Center for Climate Strategies Environmental Protection www.climatestrategies.us
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