Nevada Greenhouse Gas Inventory and Reference Case Projections

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FINAL Nevada GHG Inventory and Reference Case Projection CCS, July 2007 Figure 4. Sector Contributions to Emissions Growth in Nevada, 1990-2020: Historical Growth and Reference Case Projections Waste Management Agriculture 2020 - 2005 2005 - 1990 Other Ind. Process ODS Substitutes (HFCs) Transport Fossil Fuel Industry RCI Fuel Use Electric Sector (in-state) 0.0 1.0 2.0 3.0 4.0 5.0 6.0 7.0 8.0 9.0 10.0 MMtCO2e/yr Notes: RCI – direct fuel use in residential, commercial and industrial sectors; ODS – ozone depleting substance. Key Uncertainties and Next Steps Some data gaps exist in this inventory, and particularly in the reference case projections. Key tasks for future refinement of this inventory and forecast include review and revision of key drivers, such as the electricity and transportation fuel use growth rates that will be major determinants of Nevada’s future GHG emissions (See Table 2). These growth rates are driven by uncertain economic, demographic, and land use trends (including growth patterns and transportation system impacts), all of which deserve closer review and discussion. One of the variables with important implications for GHG emissions is the type and number of power plants built in Nevada between now and 2020. The assumptions on vehicle miles traveled (VMT) and air travel growth also have large impacts on the GHG emission growth in the State. Finally, uncertainty remains on estimates for historic and projected GHG sinks from forestry, which can greatly affect the net GHG emissions attributed to Nevada. Nevada Division of 8 Center for Climate Strategies Environmental Protection www.climatestrategies.us
FINAL Nevada GHG Inventory and Reference Case Projection CCS, July 2007 Table 2. Key Annual Growth Rates for Nevada, Historical and Projected 1990-2005 2005-2020 Sources Population a 4.9% 3.1% Nevada State Demography Office. Cumulative growth from 2005-2020 is estimated to be 47%. 7 Employment a Goods 5.4% 3.7% Nevada Department of Employment website, 2004- 2014 trend assumed to continue to 2020 Services 4.5% 3.2% Electricity Sales 4.7% 3.1% EIA data for 1990-2005. Growth rate for 2005-2020 provided by Nevada PUC. Vehicle Miles Traveled 5.0% 3.3% Nevada Department of Transportation, Regional Transportation Commissions of Washoe and Southern Nevada, WRAP projections a For the RCI fuel consumption sectors, population and employment projections for Nevada were used together with US DOE EIA’s Annual Energy Outlook 2006 projections of changes in fuel use for the EIA’s Mountain region on a per capita basis for the residential sector, and on a per employee basis for the commercial and industrial sectors. For instance, growth in Nevada’s residential natural gas use is calculated as the Nevada population growth times the change in per capita natural gas use for the Mountain region. Emissions of aerosols, particularly black carbon from fossil fuel combustion, could have significant impacts in terms of radiative forcing (i.e., climate impacts). Methodologies for conversion of black carbon mass estimates and projections to global warming potential involve significant uncertainty at present, but CCS has developed and used a recommended approach for estimating black carbon emissions based on methods used in other States. Current estimates suggest a relatively small CO 2 e contribution overall from BC emissions, as compared to the CO 2 e contributed from the gases. 7 Additional information on population growth can be found at the following links: http://quickfacts.census.gov/qfd/rankings/PL0120000r.html and page 13 of the report at http://www.nsbdc.org/what/data_statistics/demographer/pubs/docs/NV_2006_Projections.pdf. Nevada Division of 9 Center for Climate Strategies Environmental Protection www.climatestrategies.us
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