Nevada Greenhouse Gas Inventory and Reference Case Projections

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FINAL Nevada GHG Inventory and Reference Case Projection CCS, July 2007 Table C1. Nevada Vehicle Miles Traveled Compound Annual Growth Rates Vehicle Type 2002-2005 2005-2010 2010-2015 2015-2020 Heavy Duty Diesel Vehicle 5.77% 4.55% 4.25% 4.21% Heavy Duty Gasoline Vehicle 4.45% 3.01% 3.70% 3.77% Light Duty Diesel Truck 7.29% 8.14% 8.15% 8.37% Light Duty Diesel Vehicle 7.29% 8.14% 8.15% 8.37% Light Duty Gasoline Truck 3.02% 3.09% 3.08% 3.04% Light Duty Gasoline Vehicle 3.02% 3.09% 3.08% 3.04% Motorcycle 3.02% 3.09% 3.08% 3.04% Onroad gasoline and diesel fuel consumption was forecasted by developing a set of growth factors that adjusted the VMT projections to account for improvements in fuel efficiency. Fuel efficiency projections were taken from EIA’s Annual Energy Outlook (AEO). These projections suggest onroad fuel consumption growth rates of 2.3% per year for gasoline and 4.7% per year for diesel between 2002 and 2020. Gasoline consumption estimates for 1990-2002 were adjusted by subtracting ethanol consumption. While the historical ethanol consumption suggests continued growth, projections for ethanol consumption in Nevada were not available. Therefore, ethanol consumption was assumed to remain at the 2002 level (3.8% of total gasoline) in the reference case projections. Biodiesel and other biofuel consumption were not considered in this inventory because historical and projection data were not available. For the aircraft sector, emission estimates for 1990 to 2002 are based on SGIT methods and fuel consumption from EIA. Emissions were projected from 2002 to 2020 using general aviation and commercial aircraft operations for 2002 to 2020 from the Federal Aviation Administration’s Terminal Area Forecast System 47 and national aircraft fuel efficiency forecasts. To estimate changes in jet fuel consumption, itinerant aircraft operations from air carrier, air taxi/commuter, and military aircraft were first summed for each year of interest. The post-2002 estimates were adjusted to reflect the projected increase in national aircraft fuel efficiency (indicated by increased number of seat miles per gallon), as reported in AEO2006. Because AEO2006 does not estimate fuel efficiency changes for general aviation aircraft, forecast changes in aviation gasoline consumption were based solely on the projected number of itinerant general aviation aircraft operations in Nevada, which was obtained from the FAA source noted above. These projections resulted in compound annual growth rates of 2.3% for aviation gasoline and 2.1% for jet fuel. Nevada DOT provided aircraft operations projections 48 ; however, these data were not broken down by commercial and general aviation. Also, military operations were not available. Commercial aircraft operations were estimated by summing the total operations for the four 47 Terminal Area Forecast, Federal Aviation Administration, http://www.apo.data.faa.gov/main/taf.asp. 48 Matthew Furedy, Nevada Department of Transportation, Aviation Planning. Nevada Division of 38 Center for Climate Strategies Environmental Protection www.climatestrategies.us
FINAL Nevada GHG Inventory and Reference Case Projection CCS, July 2007 largest airports (Reno-Tahoe, McCarran, North Las Vegas, and Elko). The aircraft operations for the remaining airports were assumed to be general aircraft operations. These projections resulted in growth rates of 2.8% for general gasoline and 0.6% for jet fuel (-0.6% when the fuel efficiency adjustment was applied). Since this approximation does not produce realistic growth rates for jet fuel consumption, FAA data (described above) were used to project aviation emissions instead of the available state data. For the rail and marine sectors, 1990 – 2004 estimates are based on SGIT methods and fuel consumption from EIA. For rail, the historic data show no significant positive or negative trend. The historic marine sector gasoline consumption data show growth from 1990 to 2000; however, there was no growth between 2000 and 2004. Therefore, no growth was assumed for these two sectors. Fuel consumption data from EIA includes nonroad gasoline and diesel fuel consumption in the commercial and industrial sectors. Therefore, nonroad emissions are included in the RCI emissions in this inventory (see Appendix B). Table C3 shows how EIA divides gasoline and diesel fuel consumption between the transportation, commercial, and industrial sectors. Nevada Division of 39 Center for Climate Strategies Environmental Protection www.climatestrategies.us
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Nevada Greenhouse Gas Inventory and Reference Case Projections

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