Nevada Greenhouse Gas Inventory and Reference Case Projections

More documents

Recommendations

Info

FINAL Nevada GHG Inventory and Reference Case Projection CCS, July 2007 MtCO 2 e/MWh in 2004, increasing to 0.71 MtCO 2 e/MWh in 2020, reflecting an increasing domination of coal generation. This method does not account for differences in the type of electricity that is imported or exported from the State, and as such, it provides a simple method for reflecting the emissions impacts of electricity consumption in the State. The calculation also ignores “gross” imports – since Nevada plants have contracts to out-of-state entities, some of the in-state electricity generation will be exported and gross imports will be greater than net imports. More sophisticated methods – for example, expanding the adjustments that were made for Mohave exports to other plants based on individual utility information on resources used to meet loads – can be considered for further improvements to this approach. Estimating the mix of electricity generation for the imports/export of a state is possible and several states are developing data collection approaches to do this. Washington State has developed regular fuel disclosure reporting. 22 Summary of Assumptions and Reference Case Projections As noted, projecting generation sources, sales, and emissions for the electric sector out to 2020 requires a number of key assumptions, including economic and demographic activity, changes in electricity-using technologies, regional markets for electricity (and competitiveness of various technologies and locations), access to transmission and distribution, the retirement of existing generation plants, the response to changing fuel prices, and the fuel/technology mix of new generation plants. The key assumptions described above are summarized in Table A6. 22 http://www.cted.wa.gov/site/539/default.aspx Nevada Division of 24 Center for Climate Strategies Environmental Protection www.climatestrategies.us
FINAL Nevada GHG Inventory and Reference Case Projection CCS, July 2007 Table A6. Key Assumptions and Methods for Electricity Projections for Nevada Electricity sales Electricity generation Transmission and Distribution losses New Renewable Generation Sources New Non-Renewable Generation Sources (2006-2010) New Non-Renewable Generation Sources (2010-2020) Average annual growth of 3.1 percent from 2006 to 2020, based on growth rates provided by the Public Utilities Commission of Nevada. Average annual growth of 6.6 percent from 2007 to 2010, based on plants under construction and 2.2 percent per year from 2010 to 2020, based on regional growth rates in AEO2006. 10 percent losses are assumed, based on average statewide losses, 1994- 2000, (data from the US EPA Emission & Generation Resource Integrated Database 23 ) Nevada’s Renewable Portfolio Standard will be met by 2 investorowned utilities (88% of electricity sales), 9% of the utilities’ sales met by renewable generation by 2007, increasing to 20% by 2015 and in subsequent years. Resources to meet the RPS are assumed to be 5% solar 18%-20% energy efficiency (based on Utilities’ Compliance Plan) remainder of new resource requirement are met by a split between geothermal and wind The mix of new non-renewable generation is based on plants under construction for this period (table A4). The mix of new generation in this period is based on regional projections from the AEO2006. 75% coal 25% natural gas Heat Rates The assumed heat rates for new gas and coal generation are 7000 Btu/kWh and 9000 Btu/kWh, respectively, based on estimates used in similar analyses. 24 Operation of Existing Facilities Existing non-hydro facilities are assumed to continue to operate as they were in 2005. Existing hydro facilities are assumed to generate 2,302 GWh per year, the average generation over the period 1996-2005. Improvements in existing facilities that lead to higher capacity factor and more generation are captured under the new generation sources. Figure A4 shows historical sources of electricity generation in the state by fuel source, along with projections to the year 2020 based on the assumptions described above. With these assumptions and the temporary shut down of the Mohave plant, natural gas is projected to take over from coal as the dominant source of electricity by 2020. Renewable generation also shows high growth, relative to levels in 2005 due to the State RPS. Overall electricity generation grows at 3.4 percent per year from 2006 to 2020. 23 http://www.epa.gov/cleanenergy/egrid/index.htm. 24 See, for instance, the Oregon Governor’s Advisory Group On Global Warming http://egov.oregon.gov/ENERGY/GBLWRM/Strategy.shtml. Nevada Division of 25 Center for Climate Strategies Environmental Protection www.climatestrategies.us
Page 1 and 2: FINAL Nevada GHG Inventory and Refe
Page 13 and 14: Summary of Preliminary Findings Int
Page 35: FINAL Nevada GHG Inventory and Refe
Page 49 and 50: Appendix C. Transportation Energy U
Page 55 and 56: Appendix D. Industrial Processes FI
Page 75 and 76: Appendix G. Waste Management Overvi
Page 81 and 82: Forest FINAL Nevada GHG Inventory a
Page 87 and 88:
FINAL Nevada GHG Inventory and Refe
Page 89 and 90:
Sector Subsector FINAL Nevada GHG I
Page 91 and 92:
Final Nevada GHG Inventory and Refe
Page 93 and 94:
Page 95 and 96:
Page 97 and 98:
show all

Nevada Greenhouse Gas Inventory and Reference Case Projections

You also want an ePaper? Increase the reach of your titles

Delete template?

Save as template?