Nevada Greenhouse Gas Inventory and Reference Case Projections

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FINAL Nevada GHG Inventory and Reference Case Projection CCS, July 2007 Development of CO 2e for BC+OM Emissions We used similar methods to those applied previously in Maine and Connecticut for converting BC mass emissions to CO 2 e. 109 These methods are based on the modeling of Jacobson (2002) 110 and his updates to this work (Jacobson, 2005a). 111 Jacobson (2005a) estimated a range of 90:1 to 190:1 for the climate response effects of BC+OM emissions as compared to CO 2 carbon emissions (depending on either a 30-year or 95-year atmospheric lifetime for CO 2 ). It is important to note that the BC+OM emissions used by Jacobson were based on a 2:1 ratio of OM:BC (his work in these papers focused on fossil fuel BC+OM; primarily diesel combustion, which has an OM:BC ratio of 2:1 or less). For Maine and Connecticut, ENE (2004) applied climate response factors from the earlier Jacobson work (220 and 500) to the estimated BC mass to estimate the range of CO 2 e associated with BC emissions. Note that the analysis in the northeast was limited to BC emissions from onroad diesel exhaust. An important oversight from this work is that the climate response factors developed by Jacobson (2002, 2005a) are on the basis of CO 2 carbon (not CO 2 ). Therefore, in order to express the BC emissions as CO 2 e, the climate response factors should have been adjusted upward by a factor of 3.67 to account for the molecular weight of CO 2 to carbon (44/12). For this inventory, we started with the 90 and 190 climate response factors adjusted to CO 2 e factors of 330 and 697 to obtain a low and high estimate of CO 2 e for each sector. An example calculation of the CO 2 e emissions for 10 tons of PM less than 2.5 microns (PM 2.5 ) from onroad diesel exhaust follows: BC mass = (10 short tons PM 2.5 ) x (0.613 ton EC/ton PM 2.5 ) = 6.13 short tons BC Low estimate CO 2 e = (6.13 tons BC) (330 tons CO 2 e/ton BC+OM) (3 tons BC+OM/ton BC) (0.907 metric ton/ton) = 5,504 metric tons CO 2 e High estimate CO 2 e = (6.13 tons BC) (697 tons CO 2 e/ton BC+OM) (3 tons BC+OM/ton BC) (0.907 metric ton/ton) = 11,626 metric tons CO 2 e NOTE: The factor 3 tons BC+OM/ton BC comes directly from the global modeling inputs used by Jacobson (2002, 2005a; i.e., 2 tons of OM/ton of BC). For source categories that had an OM:BC mass emissions ratio >4.0, we zeroed out these emission estimates from the CO 2 e estimates. The reason for this is that the net heating effects of OM are not currently well understood (overall OM is thought to have a negative climate forcing 109 ENE, 2004. Memorandum: “Diesel Black Carbon Calculations – Reductions and Baseline” from Michael Stoddard, Environment Northeast, prepared for the Connecticut Stakeholder Dialog, Transportation Work Group, October 23, 2003. 110 Jacobson, 2002. Jacobson, M.Z., “Control of fossil-fuel particulate black carbon and organic matter, possibly the most effective method of slowing global warming”, Journal of Geophysical Physical Research, volume 107, No. D19, 4410, 2002. 111 Jacobson, 2005a. Jacobson, M.Z., “Updates to ‘Control of fossil-fuel particulate black carbon and organic matter, possibly the most effective method of slowing global warming”, Journal of Geophysical Research Atmospheres, February 15, 2005. Nevada Division of 74 Center for Climate Strategies Environmental Protection www.climatestrategies.us
FINAL Nevada GHG Inventory and Reference Case Projection CCS, July 2007 effect or a net cooling effect). Therefore, for source categories where the PM is dominated by OM (e.g., biomass burning), the net climate response associated with these emissions is highly uncertain and could potentially produce a net negative climate forcing potential. Further, OM:BC ratios of 4 or more are well beyond the 2:1 ratio used by Jacobson in his work. Results and Discussion We estimate that BC mass emissions in Nevada total about 2.6 MMtCO 2 e in 2002. This is the mid-point of the estimated range of emissions. The estimated range is 1.7 – 3.5 MMtCO 2 e (see Table I1). The primary contributing sectors in 2002 were nonroad diesel (53%), rail (14%), and onroad diesel (9%). The nonroad diesel sector includes exhaust emissions from construction/mining, industrial and agricultural engines. Construction and mining engines contributed about 75% of the diesel nonroad engine total while agricultural engines contributed about 15%. Other significant contributing sectors to BC emissions in NV are coal-fired electricity generating units (EGUs) and nonroad gasoline engines at around 5% each of the total CO 2 e. The coal-fired EGU contribution should drop in the future due to the temporary shut down of the Mohave Generating Station. Pleasure craft and lawn and garden equipment engines contributed about one-third each to the nonroad gasoline total. Wildfires and miscellaneous sources such as fugitive dust from paved and unpaved roads contributed a significant amount of PM and subsequent BC and OM mass emissions (see Table I1); however the OM:BC ratio is >4 for these sources, so the BC emissions were not converted to CO 2 e. The WRAP’s 2018 forecast inventory was used to assess the changes in future year emissions for the most significant contributors to the BC inventory. Generally, these are diesel engines in both the onroad (e.g. heavy-duty vehicles) and nonroad categories. In 2002, the high estimate for the onroad diesel sector was 0.32 MMtCO 2 e, while in 2018, the estimated emissions drop to 0.07 MMtCO 2 e. For nonroad engines, the high estimate for emissions drops from 1.9 MMtCO 2 e in 2002 to 0.49 MMtCO 2 e in 2018. These reductions in BC are the result of new engine and lower sulfur diesel standards being phased in prior to 2018. Overall, BC emissions are estimated to drop by about 40% by 2018. While the state of science in aerosol climate forcing is still developing, there is a good body of evidence supporting the net warming impacts of black carbon. Aerosols have a direct radiative forcing because they scatter and absorb solar and infrared radiation in the atmosphere. Aerosols also alter the formation and precipitation efficiency of liquid water, ice and mixed-phase clouds, thereby causing an indirect radiative forcing associated with these changes in cloud properties (IPCC, 2001). 112 There are also a number of other indirect radiative effects that have been modeled (see, for example, Jacobson, 2002, as noted in footnote on the previous page). The quantification of aerosol radiative forcing is more complex than the quantification of radiative forcing by GHGs because of the direct and indirect radiative forcing effects, and the 112 IPCC, 2001. Climate Change 2001: The Scientific Basis, Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, 2001. Nevada Division of 75 Center for Climate Strategies Environmental Protection www.climatestrategies.us
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Nevada Greenhouse Gas Inventory and Reference Case Projections

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