Nevada Greenhouse Gas Inventory and Reference Case Projections

More documents

Recommendations

Info

FINAL Nevada GHG Inventory and Reference Case Projection CCS, July 2007 rates of 3.7% and 3.2%, respectively, and these growth rates are reflected in the growth rates in energy use shown in Table B2 for the two sectors. The 2004 to 2014 commercial and industrial employment growth rates were carried forward to 2020 for the purpose of estimating emissions for the reference case projections. These estimates of growth relative to population and employment reflect expected responses of the economy — as simulated by the EIA’s National Energy Modeling System — to changing fuel and electricity prices and changing technologies, as well as to structural changes within each sector (such as shifts in subsectoral shares and in energy use patterns). Table B1. Electricity Sales Annual Growth Rates, Historical and Projected Sector 1990-2004 a 2005-2010 b 20010-2020 b Residential 4.8% 3.4% 3.4% Commercial 5.6% 3.4% 3.4% Industrial 5.0% 2.5% 2.5% Total 4.7% 3.0% 3.1% a 1990-2004 compound annual growth rates calculated from Nevada electricity sales by year from EIA state electricity profiles (Table 8), (http://www.eia.doe.gov/cneaf/electricity/st_profiles/e_profiles_sum.html). b 2005-2020 compound annual growth rate for total for all three sectors taken from forecast for the energy supply sector (see Appendix A). Results Figures B1, B2, and B3 show historic and projected emissions for the RCI sectors in Nevada from 1990 through 2020. These figures show the emissions associated with the direct consumption of fossil fuels and, for comparison purposes, show the share of emissions associated with the generation of electricity consumed by each sector. During the period from 1990 through 2020, the residential sector’s share of total RCI emissions from direct fuel use and electricity use ranges from 30% to 35%, the commercial sector’s share of total emissions ranges from 26% to 28%, and the industrial sector’s share of total emissions ranges from 37% to 44%. For the residential sector, emissions from electricity and direct fossil fuel use in 1990 were about 5.7 MMtCO 2 e, and are estimated to increase to about 13.4 MMtCO 2 e by 2020. Emissions associated with the generation of electricity to meet residential energy consumption demand accounted for about 78% of total residential emissions in 1990 and are estimated to decrease to 74% of total residential emissions by 2020. In 1990, natural gas consumption accounted for about 17% of total residential emissions, and gas use is estimated to account for about 24% of total residential emissions by 2020. Residential sector emissions associated with the use of coal, petroleum, and wood in 1990 were about 0.3 MMtCO 2 e combined, and accounted for about 5% of total residential emissions. By 2020, emissions associated with the consumption of these three fuels are estimated to drop to 0.27 MMtCO 2 e, and to account for 2% of total residential sector emissions in that year. Nevada Division of 32 Center for Climate Strategies Environmental Protection www.climatestrategies.us
FINAL Nevada GHG Inventory and Reference Case Projection CCS, July 2007 Table B2. Historic and Projected Average Annual Growth in Energy Use in Nevada, by Sector and Fuel, 1990-2020 1990-2004 a 2005-2010 b 2010-2015 b 2015-2020 b Residential natural gas 5.1% 5.0% 3.7% 2.4% petroleum -3.9% 3.6% 3.0% 1.6% wood -0.8% 3.5% 1.0% 0.5% coal -13.0% 3.4% 0.5% -0.5% Commercial natural gas 3.7% 3.2% 5.0% 4.3% petroleum 0.1% 0.4% 3.2% 2.8% wood 2.9% 1.9% 2.4% 2.1% coal -9.5% 1.8% 2.4% 2.1% Industrial natural gas 3.5% 3.3% 2.3% 2.3% petroleum -0.8% 4.3% 3.7% 3.1% wood c 13.6% 4.9% 4.1% 4.0% coal 2.2% 2.9% 2.0% 1.8% a Compound annual growth rates calculated from EIA SED historical consumption by sector and fuel type for Nevada. Latest year for which EIA SED information was available for each fuel type is 2003 for coal and wood/wood waste, 2004 for petroleum, and 2005 for natural gas. Petroleum includes distillate fuel, kerosene, and liquefied petroleum gases for all sectors plus residual oil for the commercial and industrial sectors. b Figures for growth periods starting after 2004 are calculated from AEO2006 projections for EIA’s Mountain region, adjusted for Nevada’s projected population for the residential sector, projections for non-manufacturing employment for the commercial sector, and projections for manufacturing employment for the industrial sector. c Industrial wood consumption is zero for 1990 through 1995; industrial wood consumption growth rate is based on SED information reported for 1996 through 2003. Figure B1. Residential Sector GHG Emissions from Fuel Consumption MMtCO2e 14 12 10 8 6 4 2 0 Electricity Wood Natural Gas Petroleum Coal 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 Year Source: CCS calculations based on approach described in text. Note: Emissions associated with coal and wood combustion are too small to be seen on this graph. Nevada Division of 33 Center for Climate Strategies Environmental Protection www.climatestrategies.us
Page 1 and 2: FINAL Nevada GHG Inventory and Refe
Page 13 and 14: Summary of Preliminary Findings Int
Page 43: FINAL Nevada GHG Inventory and Refe
Page 49 and 50: Appendix C. Transportation Energy U
Page 55 and 56: Appendix D. Industrial Processes FI
Page 75 and 76: Appendix G. Waste Management Overvi
Page 81 and 82: Forest FINAL Nevada GHG Inventory a
Page 89 and 90: Sector Subsector FINAL Nevada GHG I
Page 91 and 92: Final Nevada GHG Inventory and Refe
Page 93 and 94: Final Nevada GHG Inventory and Refe
Page 95 and 96:
Final Nevada GHG Inventory and Refe
Page 97 and 98:
Final Nevada GHG Inventory and Refe
show all

Nevada Greenhouse Gas Inventory and Reference Case Projections

You also want an ePaper? Increase the reach of your titles

Delete template?

Save as template?