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Nevada Greenhouse Gas Inventory and Reference Case Projections

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FINAL <strong>Nevada</strong> GHG <strong>Inventory</strong> <strong>and</strong> <strong>Reference</strong> <strong>Case</strong> Projection<br />

CCS, July 2007<br />

to track methane emissions. Therefore, estimates based on emissions measurements in <strong>Nevada</strong><br />

are not possible at this time.<br />

The SGIT, developed by the US EPA, facilitates estimation of state-level greenhouse gas<br />

emissions. 64 Methane emission estimates are calculated by multiplying emissions-related<br />

activity levels (e.g. miles of pipeline, number of compressor stations) by aggregate industryaverage<br />

emission factors. Key information sources for the activity data are the US DOE EIA 65<br />

<strong>and</strong> American <strong>Gas</strong> Association’s annual publication <strong>Gas</strong> Facts. 66 Methane emissions were<br />

estimated using SGIT, with reference to the EIIP guidance document.<br />

Future projections of methane emissions from oil <strong>and</strong> gas systems are calculated based on the<br />

following key drivers:<br />

• Consumption – See Appendix A, Electricity, <strong>and</strong> Appendix B, Residential, Commercial <strong>and</strong><br />

Industrial Sector for assumptions used in projecting natural gas consumption in <strong>Nevada</strong>.<br />

Based on those assumptions, <strong>Nevada</strong>'s natural gas consumption is projected to grow at an<br />

annual average rate at 3.5% between 2006 <strong>and</strong> 2020. 67<br />

• Production –As a simple estimate for projections, oil <strong>and</strong> natural gas production are forecast<br />

to continue to decline at rates seen in the past 5 years in the State. Oil <strong>and</strong> gas production has<br />

been declining steadily for more than a decade in <strong>Nevada</strong>, <strong>and</strong> production of both appears to<br />

be nearing the end of the decline curve, with only small amounts of production now<br />

occurring. Simple assumptions were made for natural gas transmission, oil refining <strong>and</strong><br />

transport.<br />

Table E1 provides an overview of data sources <strong>and</strong> approach used to project future emissions.<br />

64 Methane emissions were calculated using SGIT, with reference to Emission <strong>Inventory</strong> Improvement Program,<br />

Volume VIII: Chapter. 5. “Methods for Estimating Methane Emissions from Natural <strong>Gas</strong> <strong>and</strong> Oil Systems”, March<br />

2005.<br />

65 “Petroleum Navigator” <strong>and</strong> “Natural <strong>Gas</strong> Navigator”, US DOE Energy Information Administration website,<br />

November 2006, Accessed at http://www.eia.doe.gov.<br />

66 American <strong>Gas</strong> Association “<strong>Gas</strong> Facts, A Statistical Record of the <strong>Gas</strong> Industry” <strong>Reference</strong>d annual publications<br />

from 1992 to 2004.<br />

67 Based on US DOE regional projections <strong>and</strong> electric sector growth assumptions (see Appendix A <strong>and</strong> B).<br />

<strong>Nevada</strong> Division of 53 Center for Climate Strategies<br />

Environmental Protection<br />

www.climatestrategies.us

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