UK Climate Change Programme 2006 - JNCC - Defra

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ANNEX A
Emissions projections
Carbon dioxide
1. Projections of the UK’s emissions of carbon
dioxide are largely derived from the DTI Energy
Model. This is a set of interlocking sub-models of
the UK energy market including final user energy
sectors and the electricity supply sector. It is a top
down demand model, based on econometrically
estimated relationships between energy demand,
energy supply, economic activity and energy
prices and a bottom–up supply side model. The
demand side comprises over 150 equations
linking historic fuel demand for residential,
transport, industry, service and agriculture sectors.
The supply side comprises data on every major
power producer and other energy producing
industries. The sector classification and the
principal source of energy statistics is the Digest
of UK Energy Statistics (DUKES) 1 . The DTI model
makes projections based on prospects for fossil
fuel prices, economic growth and demographics.
2. Rather than producing a single forecast, the
projections provide a view of possible future
levels of emissions and composition of energy
demand based on agreed assumptions of world
energy prices. This results in different scenarios
within the umbrella of overall projected UK
economic growth. Even then, considerable
uncertainties remain. These are discussed further
in Annex B.
3. Energy and emissions projections which informed
the Climate Change Programme 2000 were
published in November 2000 in Energy Paper 68.
The exercise to provide updated energy and
emissions projections began in April 2003 and
Updated Energy Projections (UEP) are now
published periodically. The UEP exercise includes
significant improvements to the DTI model in
several sectors. Key assumptions have been
updated and revised and have been incorporated
in the baseline. It also now includes all current
government environmental policy measures as
most recently evaluated, as described below.
Baseline with measures projections underpinning
the Climate Change Programme review were
published in UEP 21, in February 2006 2 .
4. Government policies and measures introduced
since the Kyoto Protocol was negotiated, and
since the publication of the Climate Change
Programme in 2000, are now incorporated within
the baseline projections. Thus, for example, the
demand response to the climate change levy is
incorporated in the projections, as is the impact
of the Renewables Obligation, which is assumed
in the DTI energy projections to raise the share of
renewables in electricity supply to around 8 per
cent by 2010. The level of carbon saving from the
policy measure incorporated in the baseline has
been determined during the re-evaluation process
undertaken during the Summer of 2005. A table
setting out the carbon savings associated with
each policy included in the baseline projections is
included in Section 2.
5. The UEP projections provide two central scenarios
based on HM Treasury projections of economic
growth combined with two variations on
assumptions of world fossil fuel price projections.
The two central price variations provide relative
price situations that would indicate either gas or
UK carbon dioxide emission projections by scenario, 1990 to 2020, MtC 3
1990 1995 2000 2004 2010 2015 2020
Central favouring coal 160.6 150.1 148.7 148.8 144.6 149.3 147.3
Central favouring gas 160.6 150.1 148.7 148.8 144.9 148.4 144.6
Average of central projections 160.6 150.1 148.7 148.8 144.8 148.8 145.9
LULUCF emissions and removals 0.8 0.3 -0.1 -0.6 -0.5 0.1 0.7
Total CO 2
emissions and removals 161.4 150.4 148.6 148.3 144.3 149.0 146.6
Change from 1990 emissions for row above -6.8% -7.9% -8.2% -10.6% -7.8% -9.2%
Note: the percentage changes and emission estimates may differ slightly due to rounding.
1 See www.dti.gov.uk/energy/inform/dukes/dukes2005/index.shtml
2 www.dti.gov.uk/energy/sepn/UEP_Feb2006.pdf
3 Historical CO 2
emissions and CO 2
energy projections in the table are based on the greenhouse gas inventory published in 2005 which agrees with the
inventory published in 2006 (used elsewhere in the programme) to about 0.01 per cent for total CO 2
emissions on average over the period 1990 to 2003,
with individual years differing by up to about 0.4 per cent. The energy projections will be updated to be based on the inventory published in 2006. The LULUCF
emissions are taken from the inventory published in 2006.