UK Climate Change Programme 2006 - JNCC - Defra

Emissions projections
173
Methodologies for non-carbon dioxide projections – continued
Sector Gas Methodology
Industrial, business, HFCs, PFCs, Based on projections developed by AEA Technology in 2003 and
residential SF 6
updated in 2004 9 . Mainly based on production trends and assumed
trends in emission factors.
Mineral Products Methane Projections based on site-specific forecasts, developed in discussion with
operators.
Overall uncertainty
13. Uncertainty ranges for each greenhouse gas,
including carbon dioxide, were combined
probabilistically to determine the overall
uncertainty range for total greenhouse gas
emissions and projections presented in the
Programme. For this exercise, the probabilistic
range of baseline emissions from energy use
was consistent with the Average of central
projections scenario.
14. This analysis suggests that in 2010, UK emissions
of greenhouse gases will be between 16 per cent
and 22 per cent below 1990 levels, with the
central scenario about 19 per cent below. The
range takes into account macroeconomic,
sectoral and modeling uncertainties. Overall
therefore, the Kyoto target would be delivered
on the basis of the policies included in the
projections. The additional policies set out in this
Programme could further reduce UK emissions of
greenhouse gases to between 20 per cent and
26 per cent below 1990 levels by 2010, with the
central scenario about 23 per cent below.
9 Emissions and projections of HFCs, PFCs and SF 6
for the UK and Constituent Countries, AEA Technology plc, June 2004.