UK Climate Change Programme 2006 - JNCC - Defra

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Emissions projections
Methodologies for non-carbon dioxide projections
Sector Gas Methodology
Agriculture Methane Projections are consistent with the approach adopted in the UK
Greenhouse Gas Inventory, 1990 to 2004 5 , incorporating forecasts of
livestock numbers (from Defra) and expectations for changes in body
mass per cow and milk production per head (Defra).
Nitrous oxide
Projections are consistent with the approach adopted in the UK
Greenhouse Gas Inventory, 1990 to 2004, incorporating forecast changes
in inorganic nitrogen-based fertiliser use (Agricultural Industries Federation).
Fuel combustion Methane & The DTI updated energy projections (UEP 21) have been incorporated
Nitrous oxide into a model consistent with that used to calculate CH4 and N 2
O emissions
for the UK Greenhouse Gas Inventory, 1990 to 2004. DTI industrial growth
forecasts are used to estimate emissions from the manufacturing and
construction sectors and from metal production.
Gas distribution Methane Projections are based on reductions in leakage expected through an
ongoing replacement programme for cast iron gas mains (low
pressure pipes).
Coal mining Methane Projections are based on DTI estimates of future UK mined coal
production, using the approach currently adopted in the UK
Greenhouse Gas Inventory, 1990 to 2004.
Abandoned coal mines Methane Projections are based on an emission of 0.74 per cent of the
estimated methane reserve of closed collieries per year 6 . Methane
reserve estimates are based on detailed plans of abandoned mine
workings and take into account the likely effects of rising water in the
workings due to flooding. Calculations allow for a higher expected
rate of emissions a few years after closure of individual collieries.
Some mitigation of emissions has also been assumed for collieries
closing in future. Projections are consistent with DTI estimates of
future colliery closure.
Oil & Gas Methane Projections are based on estimates provided by United Kingdom
Offshore Operators Association (UKOOA) and verified by comparison
with forecast offshore oil and gas production.
Transport Methane & Road – Emission projections are based on projections of vehicle km
Nitrous oxide traveled, provided by the Department for Transport and AEA
Technology, and emissions factors for each of the ‘Euro’ standards
comprising the vehicle fleet.
Civil aviation – Emission projections are based on assumed growth in
passenger demand (Aviation White Paper) 7 .
Navigation – Emission projections are based on information from
Department for Transport on expected growth (assuming emissions
proportional to activity).
Railways – Emission projections are based on the assumption that
changes in rail activity influence emissions proportionately. The data
was provided by the Department for Transport and the Strategic Rail
Authority.
Landfill Methane Estimates developed by Golder Associates 8 based on municipal solid
waste arisings generated from the Local Authority Waste Recycling
Recovery and Disposal Model.
Wastewater handling Methane Based on expected change in sewage sludge production and
projected changes in population developed by Government
Actuary’s Department.
Chemical industry Nitrous oxide Projected emissions from adipic and nitric acid manufacture are
calculated based on knowledge of abatement techniques applied at
relevant sites and projected future abatement achievable.
5 UK Greenhouse Gas Inventory, 1990 to 2004, to be published in April 2006, will be available at www.naei.co.uk/reports.php
6 Development of a Methodology for Estimating Methane Emissions from Abandoned Coal Mines in the UK, IMC White Young Green, 2005.
7 www.dft.gov.uk/stellent/groups/dft_aviation/documents/page/dft_aviation_031516.pdf
8 UK Landfill Methane Emissions: Evaluation and Appraisal of Waste Policies and Projections to 2050, Golder Associates, November 2005.