UK Climate Change Programme 2006 - JNCC - Defra

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12 What is climate change and why does it matter? How the climate may change in the future 15. Complex computer models are used to simulate global and regional climates of the past, present and future. The first graph below shows observed global temperature change between 1861 and 2000 (black curve) as well as a simulation of global temperature change back into the 19th century from the latest climate change model developed by the Met Office’s Hadley Centre (red curve). The second graph shows four simulations into the future using the same model and based on four emissions scenarios of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). Each shows a continuing global temperature rise until the end of this century. Recent warming can be simulated when man-made factors are included Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Recognising the need for a scientific assessment, the World Meteorological Organisation (WMO) and the United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP) established the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change in 1988. The role of the IPCC is to assess on a comprehensive, objective, open and transparent basis the scientific, technical and socio-economic information relevant to understanding the scientific basis of risk of human-induced climate change, its potential impacts and options for adaptation and mitigation. The IPCC does not carry out research. It bases its assessments on peer reviewed and published scientific/technical literature. Since its establishment the IPCC has produced a series of publications which have become standard works of reference. The main products are Assessment Reports, Special Reports, Methodology Reports and Technical Papers. Each assessment includes a Summary for Policymakers published in all official UN languages. IPCC’s next major assessment, the Fourth Assessment Report on climate change, is currently under preparation and will be published during 2007. Predicted warming due to range of IPCC emissions The UK considers that the assessments of the IPCC provide the most authoritative and comprehensive picture of all aspects of climate change. UK scientist Professor Martin Parry co-chairs Working Group II on impacts, adaptation and vulnerability. The Government funds a technical unit, which supports him in this role. Abrupt and dangerous climate change 16. As global temperatures continue to increase, the risks of abrupt and possibly irreversible changes that would have serious consequences are
What is climate change and why does it matter? 13 increasing. These include substantial melting of polar ice sheets like those of Greenland and West Antarctica, which would cause an additional sea level rise of up to 12 metres, reduction in the strength of the North Atlantic ocean currents, which could cause significant cooling in the North Atlantic and Europe region, and increased methane emissions following melting of permafrost or destabilisation of the large quantities of methane hydrates deposited in the oceans depths along continental margins. • emission pathways to climate stabilisation and technological options available to achieve them. 20. The conference findings were published by Cambridge University Press in January 2006 4 . The conference concluded that climate change looks to be worse than expected, that we need to act urgently to avoid considerable risks and that the long term costs of mitigation are small and less than previously stated. 17. Important questions are how the current upward trend in greenhouse gas emissions can be halted and how their atmospheric concentrations can ultimately be stabilised at a level which avoids these and other potentially dangerous changes; in the mid-1990s the EU proposed that the aim should be to limit global temperature rise to no more than 2ºC to avoid dangerous climate change. 18. At that time, it was thought that this equated to atmospheric carbon dioxide levels below approximately 550 ppm. The more recent work of the IPCC suggests that a limit closer to 450 ppm or even lower, might be more appropriate to meet a 2°C stabilisation limit. Since pre-industrial times we have already seen a rise from 270 to about 380 ppm adding urgency to need for action to reduce emissions sufficiently to avoid “dangerous levels” of climate change. 19. In order to encourage scientific debate on this issue, the UK Government hosted an International Symposium on Stabilisation of Greenhouse Gases, “Avoiding Dangerous Climates Change” 3 in February 2005 at the Met Office, Exeter. The conference brought together over 200 experts from some 30 countries. Issues including the long-term implications of different levels of climate change for different sectors and the world as a whole were considered. Major themes included: • key vulnerabilities of the climate system and critical thresholds; How the world might be affected 21. As a result of past and present emissions, some degree of climate change is now inevitable. Global temperature is now increasing at 0.17°C per decade, and is projected by the IPCC to be between 1.4 and 5.8°C above 1990 levels in 2100. Sea levels could be between 9 and 88 centimetres above 1990 levels by 2100. As temperature continues to increase the frequency of droughts and extreme rainfalls are also expected to increase with a wide range of impacts on both the natural environment and human society. The table below summarises some of the key impacts that are predicted to become significant at different levels of temperature change. Temperature increase above preindustrial 1-2ºC 2-3ºC 1-4ºC 2-4.5ºC Impacts Major impacts on ecosystems and species; wide ranging impacts on society Greenland ice cap starts to melt, major loss of coral reef ecosystem; considerable species loss; large impacts on agriculture; water resources; health; and economies. Terrestrial carbon sink could become a source North Atlantic circulation at increasing risk of collapse West Antarctic ice sheet at increasing risk of collapse • socio-economic effects, both globally and regionally; and 3 Further information can be found at: www.stabilisation2005.com 4 “Avoiding Dangerous Climate Change”, Cambridge University Press, January 2006.
Page 1: Climate Change The UK Programme 200
Page 4 and 5: ©Crown Copyright 2006 The text in
Page 6 and 7: iv Foreword We will work with our E
Page 8 and 9: 2 Contents Section 5 - Annexes 00 S
Page 10 and 11: 4 Executive Summary Recent experien
Page 12 and 13: 6 Executive Summary In the agricult
Page 14 and 15: 8 CHAPTER ONE What is climate chang
Page 16 and 17: 10 What is climate change and why d
Page 20 and 21: 14 What is climate change and why d
Page 22 and 23: 16 International framework for acti
Page 30 and 31: 24 CHAPTER ONE UK emissions invento
Page 32 and 33: 26 UK emissions inventory and proje
Page 34 and 35: 28 UK emissions inventory and proje
Page 36 and 37: 30 CHAPTER TWO Strategy to reduce U
Page 38 and 39: 32 CHAPTER THREE Energy supply The
Page 40 and 41: 34 Energy supply Energy policy 6. T
Page 42 and 43: 36 Energy supply Electricity from r
Page 44 and 45: 38 Energy supply grid. While these
Page 46 and 47: 40 Energy supply phase allocations
Page 48 and 49: 42 Energy supply 53. Carbon abateme
Page 50 and 51: 44 CHAPTER FOUR Business In 2004, t
Page 52 and 53: 46 Business Existing measures Carbo
Page 54 and 55: 48 Business • fuel used by good q
Page 56 and 57: 50 Business Carbon Trust 1,000 inst
Page 58 and 59: 52 Business long-term strategy to t
Page 60 and 61: 54 Business provides interest free
Page 62 and 63: 56 Business could be complex. The r
Page 64 and 65: 58 Business 85. The EU Landfill Dir
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62 Transport make and on the other
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64 Transport Policies and measures
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66 Transport that they can make inf
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68 Transport An example of the fuel
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70 Transport 43. Other aspects of t
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72 Transport • research and devel
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74 CHAPTER SIX Domestic In 2004, th
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76 Domestic 5. Over 2000-10, before
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78 Domestic Additional measures Inc
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80 Domestic Building Regulations 16
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82 Domestic Energy Performance of B
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84 Domestic regulatory action unnec
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86 Domestic • consumers’ lack o
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88 Domestic England 19 will be met
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90 CHAPTER SEVEN Agriculture, fores
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92 Agriculture, forestry and land m
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100 Agriculture, forestry and land
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102 Agriculture, forestry and land
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104 CHAPTER EIGHT Public sector In
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106 Public sector Sustainable Energ
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108 Public sector new unfunded burd
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110 Public sector 24. The Governmen
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112 Public sector Government Estate
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114 Public sector 48. The Higher Ed
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116 Public sector THE ENCODE The De
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118 Stimulating action by individua
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124 CHAPTER TEN Bringing it all tog
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126 CHAPTER ELEVEN Monitoring and r
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SECTION 3 Adapting to the impacts o
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Adaptation 131 • increased subsid
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Adaptation 133 We will analyse stak
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Adaptation 135 additional market ri
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Adaptation 137 Climate change partn
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Adaptation 139 the UK Presidency of
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Adaptation 141 Conclusions 45. It i
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144 CHAPTER ONE Scotland The Scotti
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146 Scotland The review of the Scot
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148 Scotland carried out around 600
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150 Scotland Fuel poverty 28. Polic
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152 Scotland Planning Building Regu
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154 Northern Ireland Northern Irela
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156 Northern Ireland • by 2012 at
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158 Northern Ireland view to ensuri
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160 Northern Ireland network. The i
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162 Northern Ireland increase in th
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164 Wales The impacts of climate ch
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166 Wales CHP 11. Health estates in
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168 Wales conserved and enhanced. C
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170 ANNEX A Emissions projections C
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172 Emissions projections Methodolo
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174 ANNEX B Carbon dioxide Key fact
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176 ANNEX C Methane Key facts Metha
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178 ANNEX D Nitrous oxide 1. Nitrou
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180 ANNEX E HFCs, PFCs and SF 6 Key
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182 HFCs, PFCs and SF 6 HFC, PFC, S
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184 Carbon sequestration Greenhouse
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186 Carbon sequestration future rat
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188 ANNEX H List of greenhouse gase
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190 ANNEX I Review of the 2000 Clim
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192 Glossary of terms HCFC Hydrochl
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Published by TSO (The Stationery Of
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