UK Climate Change Programme 2006 - JNCC - Defra

76
Domestic
5. Over 2000-10, before the effects of policies in
this programme are taken into account, emissions
under Business as Usual (BAU) would now be
expected to remain almost constant, increasing
by only 0.3 MtC, from 39.8 MtC in 2000 to
40.1 MtC in 2010. However, policy savings,
which are calculated net of BAU savings, are
expected to reduce annual emissions by 4.8 MtC
below the BAU emissions figure for 2010, so that
emissions in 2010 are projected to be 35.3 MtC.
These policy savings consist of 3.6 MtC from
policies in the 2000 programme and a further
1.2 MtC from the new measures introduced in
this programme. These savings will keep us on
track to meet our 2010 targets for household
energy efficiency 2 .
6. As with the previous decade, the very small net
change in estimated BAU emissions for 2000-
2010 is the result of several larger effects: this
time, they more or less cancel out.
These are:
• upward pressure from service demand
increases (slightly less than in the 1990s as
gas central heating installations saturate) at
nearly 25 per cent, i.e. around 8.5 MtC;
• decreases from the background level of
energy efficiency improvement (ie before the
additional effects of policies are counted), very
similar to that over 1990-2000, at 12 per
cent, i.e. around 4.5 MtC;
Domestic carbon emissions
1990
2003
By end use
Lights &
appliances
33%
Cooking
8%
Space
heating
41%
Lights &
appliances
22%
Cooking
5%
Space
heating
53%
Water
heating
18%
Water
heating
20%
By fuel
Oil
5%
Solid
10%
Gas
37%
Oil
7%
Solid
3%
Gas
54%
Electricity
48%
Electricity
36%
Source: Defra
2 Our targets are: savings of 3.5 MtC from households in England by 2010 (as set out in the Energy Efficiency Action Plan 2004, in fulfilment of the
Sustainable Energy Act 2003); and to improve household energy efficiency in England by 20 per cent by 2010, from a 2000 baseline (Housing Act 2004).