Chapter 1 Minimum Flows and Levels - Southwest Florida Water ...
Chapter 1 Minimum Flows and Levels - Southwest Florida Water ...
Chapter 1 Minimum Flows and Levels - Southwest Florida Water ...
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2.4.2.1 Multidecadal Periods of High <strong>and</strong> Low <strong>Flows</strong><br />
Citing Enfield et al. (2001), Basso <strong>and</strong> Schultz (2003) noted that the Atlantic<br />
Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) offered an apparent explanation for observed<br />
rainfall deficits throughout central <strong>Florida</strong>. Although the District <strong>and</strong> others<br />
(Hammett 1990, Hickey 1998) have discussed the lack of tropical storm activity<br />
<strong>and</strong> deficit rainfall in recent decades, the mechanism or mechanisms that would<br />
account for such differences were unknown. Based on an emerging body of<br />
research, climatologists now believe that multidecadal periods of warming <strong>and</strong><br />
cooling of the North Atlantic Ocean's surface waters ultimately affect precipitation<br />
patterns across much of the United States. What is particularly interesting is that<br />
unlike most of the continental United States, there is for most of <strong>Florida</strong> a positive<br />
(rather than negative) correlation between rainfall <strong>and</strong> prolonged periods of North<br />
Atlantic Ocean sea surface warming (Enfield et al. 2001). While periods of<br />
warmer ocean temperature generally resulted in less rainfall over most of the<br />
United States, there are some areas, including peninsular <strong>Florida</strong>, where rainfall<br />
increased.<br />
Since river flows are largely rainfall dependent, variation in rainfall should result<br />
in variations in river flows. To be consistent with Enfield et al.'s (2001)<br />
conclusions regarding the AMO <strong>and</strong> rainfall <strong>and</strong> with Basso <strong>and</strong> Schultz (2003),<br />
who examined long-term variations in rainfall in west-central <strong>Florida</strong>, Kelly (2004)<br />
reasoned that in <strong>Florida</strong>, flows would be highest at streamflow gage sites when<br />
sea surface temperatures in the North Atlantic are in a warm period (i.e.,<br />
positively correlated). At the same time, most of the continental United States<br />
would be expected to be in a period of lower flows. Conversely, the majority of<br />
continental gage sites would be expected to exhibit higher flows during AMO cool<br />
periods <strong>and</strong> much of peninsular <strong>Florida</strong> would be expected to be in a period of<br />
low flows.<br />
Based on these hypotheses, Kelly (2004) examined flow records for multidecadal<br />
periods corresponding to warming <strong>and</strong> cooling phases of the AMO for numerous<br />
gage sites within the District, the state, <strong>and</strong> the southeastern United States to<br />
discern if increases <strong>and</strong> decreases in river flows were consistent with AMO<br />
phases. He concluded that flow decreases <strong>and</strong> increases in the northern part of<br />
the state <strong>and</strong> flow increases <strong>and</strong> decreases in peninsular <strong>Florida</strong> are consistent<br />
with the AMO <strong>and</strong> the reported relationship with rainfall. When rivers in<br />
peninsular <strong>Florida</strong> were in a multidecadal period of higher flows (1940 to 1969),<br />
rivers in the north to northwestern part of the state were in a low-flow period.<br />
Conversely rivers in peninsular <strong>Florida</strong> exhibited generally lower flows (1970 to<br />
1999) when rivers in the northern portion of the state exhibited higher flows.<br />
Examination of streams with a bi-modal flow pattern offered particularly strong<br />
supporting evidence for a distinct difference in flows between northern <strong>and</strong><br />
southern rivers, since differences between pre- <strong>and</strong> post 1970 flows that<br />
occurred during the spring were similar to differences noted for northern river<br />
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