Chapter 1 Minimum Flows and Levels - Southwest Florida Water ...

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flows while differences in summer flows were similar to flow changes that occurred in southern rivers. 2.4.3 Braden River Flow Trends 2.4.3.1 Gage Sites and Periods of Record Data are available for three USGS gages within the Braden River MFLs study corridor. Gage height (water surface elevation) data are available from March 2002 though October 2004 for the Braden River at Lorraine FL (02300029) site, the most upstream of the four sites. The Braden River near Lorraine FL gage (02300032) has the longest period of record, with gage height and stream flow measurements (Figure 2-13) available from July 1988 through the present date. Based on the availability of data for the Braden River near Lorraine site, the minimum flows and levels recommended in this report for the upper, freshwater segment of the Braden River were developed for flows measured at this gaging station. The most downstream gaging station in the study corridor is the Braden River at Linger Lodge near Bradenton FL (023000358) site. Water surface elevation values were recorded at this site form March 2002 through October 2006. The Linger Lodge gage was installed to assist with MFLs development. Gage locations are marked on Figures 2-1 and 4-1. Braden River near Lorraine, FL 250 200 Flow (cfs) 150 100 50 0 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 Day of Year Figure 2-13. Median (orange line) and mean (blue line) daily flows for the USGS Braden River near Lorraine gage for the period of record (1988-2005). 2-17
2.4.3.2 Step Trend in River Flows Kelly (2004) argued, similarly to McCabe and Wolock (2002), that there was a step change in Florida river flow volumes related to climatic change associated with the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO). This is shown graphically for the USGS Peace River at Arcadia FL gage site in Figure 2-14. The upper panel of the figure shows the results of a Kendall's tau regression of mean annual flows at the site versus time for the period 1940 to 1999. The Kendall's tau p-value was 0.0269 with a slope of –8.825 cfs/yr indicating a statistically significant declining trend. However, using 1970 as a break-point and repeating the analysis for the periods from 1940 to 1969 and 1970 to 1999 (periods corresponding to warm and cool-water phases of the AMO) indicated that there were no significant trends for either period. As can be seen in the middle panel of Figure 2-14, there was not a statistically significant trend in mean annual flows for the period 1940 to 1969; p = 0.8028, slope = –1.947. In the lower panel, Kendall's tau regression for the period 1970 to 1999 also showed no significant trend; p = 0.5680, slope = 3.759. A Mann-Whitney U Test for differences between mean annual flows for the two multidecadal time periods indicated that flows at the Arcadia gage site were significantly greater (p=0.0035) during the earlier period (1940 to 1969) as compared to the more recent period (1970 to 1999). Similar results were found for other area rivers and are noted (Tables 2-4 and 2-5), providing evidence for a step change in Peace River flows rather than a monotonic trend as suggested by Hammett (1990). To paraphrase slightly McCabe and Wolock (2002), the identification of an abrupt decrease in peninsular Florida streamflow rather than a gradual decreasing trend is important because the implications of a gradual trend is that the trend is likely to continue into the future whereas the interpretation of a step change is that the climate system has shifted to a new regime that will likely remain relatively constant until a new shift or step change occurs. 2-18
Page 1 and 2: Proposed Minimum Flows and Levels f
Page 3 and 4: Table of Contents TABLE OF CONTENTS
Page 5 and 6: 5.5 PRESCRIBED FLOW REDUCTION FOR B
Page 7 and 8: Figure 2-19. Potassium concentratio
Page 9 and 10: Figure 5-13. Median daily flow at t
Page 11 and 12: mean feature elevations are listed
Page 13 and 14: For the high flow season of the yea
Page 15 and 16: Acknowledgements The authors would
Page 17 and 18: fluctuations in water flows or leve
Page 19 and 20: Common to this list and the flow re
Page 21 and 22: Fundamental to the approach used fo
Page 23 and 24: 300 250 Block 1 Block 3 Block 2 Flo
Page 25 and 26: are outlined in Chapter 4. In Chapt
Page 27 and 28: as the freshwater segment upstream
Page 29 and 30: attributed to analytic precision di
Page 31 and 32: Figure 2-4. 1999 land use/cover map
Page 33 and 34: Table 2-2. Land use/cover and land
Page 35 and 36: Figure 2-8. 1999 Land use/cover map
Page 37 and 38: Figure 2-10. 1972 Land use/cover ma
Page 39 and 40: Smith and Stopp (1978) note that "i
Page 41: 2.4.2.1 Multidecadal Periods of Hig
Page 45 and 46: Table 2-4. Results of Kendall's tau
Page 47 and 48: 2.4.4 Benchmark Periods Climate-bas
Page 49 and 50: Oscillation were examined. On a sea
Page 51 and 52: Water Chemistry 2.4.6 Water Quality
Page 53 and 54: Braden River near Lorraine, FL 0.6
Page 55 and 56: Peace River at Arcadia, FL 10 Potas
Page 57 and 58: Table 2-8. Summary statistics for B
Page 59 and 60: 3.2 Resources and Area of Concern T
Page 61 and 62: habitat, the greater area of stream
Page 63 and 64: levels such as fish have been shown
Page 65 and 66: Figure 3-1. Example of low flow in
Page 67 and 68: USGS Braden River near Lorraine gag
Page 69 and 70: instream cross-sections were sample
Page 71 and 72: Figure 4-2. Upstream vegetation cro
Page 73 and 74: supports water surface profile calc
Page 75 and 76: The HEC-RAS model was run using 21
Page 77 and 78: Adult Spotted Sunfish Adults - Brad
Page 79 and 80: species of interest. For example cu
Page 81 and 82: 4.4 Seasonal Flow and Development o
Page 83 and 84: Wetted Perimeter - Sta. 44.9 25 20
Page 85 and 86: factors, the most conservative of w
Page 87 and 88: Chapter 5 Results and Recommended M
Page 89 and 90: Wetted Perimeter Requirements Flow
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Floodplain profiles and vegetation
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mean elevation of the Oak/popash ve
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Table 5-3. Mean (±SD) flows at the
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Elevaton (NGVD) 27.0 22.0 17.0 12.0
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Table 5-7. Median elevations, in fe
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80 70 60 Flow reduction (%) 50 40 3
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Table 5-8. Recommended percent flow
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100 90 80 % DOMINANCE 70 60 50 40 3
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Table 5-9. Mean elevation of instre
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The second standard was developed t
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Table 5-10. Proposed Minimum Flows
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Division Information and Technology
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Hupalo, R., C. Neubauer, L. Keenan,
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communities in the corridors of the
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Wharton, C.H., W.M. Kitchens, E.C.
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Confined Aquifer - A term used to d
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Instream Habitats - A specific type
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Riffle - A relatively shallow reach
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Chapter 8 Appendix A A Review of
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steps to reduce the uncertainty and
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2007). In addition, the approach us
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with limited biological knowledge o
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the other factors listed above or w
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have now been developed and adopted
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An example of the primary output fr
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prevent negative effects associated
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methods, such as LiDAR, to improve
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habitat reduction criterion and the
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Summary, Special Publication SJ2002
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Errata / comments by page number in
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4-20 Section 4.7.1, 1 st paragraph,
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Chapter 9 Appendix B - Staff Respon
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2) The panel notes that the period
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4) One aspect of Chapter 2 should b
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Preventing Significant Harm - 15% C
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they aren't getting enough particul
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Habitat Criteria and Characterizati
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Compliance Standards and Proposed M
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Glossary of Terms 13) When an inter
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