Living with Risk. A global review of disaster reduction initiatives

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Living with Risk: A global review of disaster reduction initiatives
prediction, early warning and disaster preparedness.
They are also covered by the
work of the UN sustainable development
conventions, the UNFCCC, UNCCD and
CBD.
Drought, unlike sudden-onset disasters, has
some unique characteristics that may require
different approaches to effectively address
how to reduce their impacts:
• Drought does not directly destroy food
in storage, shelter or infrastructure.
• Its effects are cumulative.
• It is often very difficult to detect its
onset until some major impacts such as
lack of water or food become discernible.
• Impacts can be spread over a larger
geographical area than the damages that
result from most of the other natural
disasters, and hence quantification of
impacts and provision of disaster relief
is far more difficult.
“Amartya Sen, the Nobel prize winning economist of Cambridge
University, famously pointed out that ‘in the terrible
history of famines in the world, no substantial famine has
ever occurred in an independent and democratic country
with a relatively free press’. The Human Rights Watch
took this to heart, and asserts that ‘the best way to prevent
famine today is to secure the right to free expression – so
that misguided government policies can be brought to public
attention and corrected before food shortages become acute’”
Source: The Economist, 18 August 2001
Further, there are several social and economic
parameters that affect the severity of drought
including food prices, wars, various intervention
methods, human activity, vegetation,
water supplies and demands, making it
extremely difficult to quantify its severity and
also provide universal definition and indicators
of drought. Drought risk is a product of
a region’s exposure to the natural hazards and
its vulnerability to extended periods of water
shortage. To reduce serious consequences,
affected nations must improve understandings
of hazards and the factors that influence
vulnerability, and establish comprehensive
and integrated early warning systems.
Case: Zimbabwe
Drought is the most common hazard in Zimbabwe,
a country whose economy is dependent on
agriculture. The incidence of drought is often
linked to the occurrence of El Niño episodes and
has worsened since the 1980s. Floods frequently
occurring in the southern and northern
provinces of the country compound drought
conditions in other parts of the country. In 1996,
there were localized floods resulting from abnormally
heavy downpours. However, in 2000,
flooding associated with Cyclone Eline caused
considerable infrastructure and environmental
damage in the country. The livelihoods of more
than 250,000 people were affected in rural areas,
with 100 fatalities and more than US$ 7.5 million
in losses recorded.
Drought has been a recurrent feature in most
parts of Southern Africa, with five major periods
of drought since 1980: 1982-83, 1987-88, 1991-
92, 1994-95 and 1997-98. Three of these events
were regional in scale, with the 1991-92 drought
considered the “worst in living memory”, placing
more than 20 million people at serious risk.
Case: Central Asia
The persistent multi year drought in Central and
Southwest Asia is an example of climatic variability
that has affected up to 60 million people in
parts of Iran, Afghanistan, Tajikistan, Uzbekistan
and Turkmenistan, since November 2001.
Chronic political instability in many parts of the
region and the recent military action in
Afghanistan have further complicated the situation.
A recent study by the International
Research Institute for Climate Prediction (IRI)
concludes that Central and Southwest Asia represent
the largest region of persistent drought
over the last three years in the world. In Iran
alone, 37 million people are affected. Water
reserves in the country were down by 45 per cent
in 2001, 800,000 heads of livestock were lost in
2000, and 2.6 million hectares of irrigated land
and 4 million hectares of rain-fed agriculture
were affected. Damage to agriculture and livestock
has been estimated by the UN at US$ 2.5
billion in 2001 and US$ 1.7 billions in 2000.
Afghanistan and Pakistan are affected on a similar
scale.
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