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Peace and Security Review, Vol.1 No. 2 - International Centre for ...

Peace and Security Review, Vol.1 No. 2 - International Centre for ...

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S. Mahmud Ali Post-Cold War Great Power <strong>Security</strong> Dynamics 47<br />

incorporated its naval facilities on the disputed Spratly Isl<strong>and</strong>s as an administrative<br />

unit under the Hainan provincial government, thus <strong>for</strong>malizing its<br />

control over parts of an archipelago also claimed, to varying extents, by five<br />

ASEAN member states. Protests only came from Vietnam where demonstrators<br />

marched in Hanoi <strong>and</strong> Ho Chi Minh City with no overt official support, but<br />

Sino-Vietnamese tensions had risen in t<strong>and</strong>em with growing intimacy<br />

between Hanoi, Washington, Delhi <strong>and</strong> Tokyo.<br />

As the Bush era climaxed, Washington’s robust stance to Beijing looked<br />

only partially effective; using a shrewd combination of soft <strong>and</strong> not-so-soft<br />

power, China has unthreateningly exp<strong>and</strong>ed the boundaries of its autonomy.<br />

Subordinate-systemic uncertainties notwithst<strong>and</strong>ing, this would continue.<br />

Joseph Nye’s observation that after Beltway rhetoric had crossed its febrile<br />

peaks, Washington often oscillated back to sensible moderation vis-à-vis<br />

China looked increasingly prophetic.<br />

What of the future, then? If the past is any guide, America’s systemic dominance<br />

could persist <strong>for</strong> decades, simply because the bases of its mutuallyrein<strong>for</strong>cing<br />

economic, military, scientific <strong>and</strong> diplomatic mettle ⎯ despite<br />

recent erosion ⎯ remain insuperable. Even its democratizing zeal retains<br />

powerful attraction among re<strong>for</strong>mists <strong>and</strong> victims of repression. <strong>No</strong> single<br />

power or coalition appears capable of rolling back US imperium. However,<br />

no effective barrier to the accretion of Chinese power beckons either. Given<br />

America’s unassailable position at the top of the hierarchy <strong>and</strong> the almost<br />

inevitable growth of Chinese capability, a time will come ⎯ probably in<br />

2030-2050 ⎯ when their fungible in-theatre power will match up. The cooption<br />

competition mix at the time will determine if they can work out a modus<br />

vivendi or not. Decisions taken by the occupants of the White House <strong>and</strong><br />

Zhongnanhai over the next few years, <strong>and</strong> the support they garner from<br />

Moscow, Tokyo <strong>and</strong> Delhi, will shape that mix. The world waits.<br />

<strong>Vol.1</strong>, <strong>No</strong>.2 2008 pp.27-47

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