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<strong>mexico</strong>: <strong>energy</strong> [r]evolution <strong>scenario</strong><br />
table 10.7: <strong>mexico</strong>: electricity generation<br />
table 10.10: <strong>mexico</strong>: installed capacity<br />
TWh/a<br />
2007 2015 2020 2030 2040 2050 GW<br />
2007 2015 2020 2030<br />
Power plants<br />
258 339 397 491 612 755 Power plants<br />
58 79 105 160<br />
Coal<br />
0 0 09 02 00 00 Coal<br />
04 03 02 00<br />
Lignite<br />
31 16<br />
Lignite<br />
Gas<br />
126 197 200 164 116 600000 Gas<br />
23 34 335012 271002<br />
Oil<br />
502 40197 2405 500 0005<br />
Oil<br />
15 10<br />
Diesel<br />
Diesel<br />
110 011<br />
Nuclear<br />
10 Nuclear<br />
Biomass<br />
3<br />
11 11<br />
Biomass<br />
Hydro<br />
27 30 32 32 32 32 Hydro<br />
11 1265233 13 13<br />
Wind<br />
0.3 12 43 112 194 278 Wind<br />
00100 20 49<br />
PV<br />
0700 6 15 41 77 123 PV<br />
10 27<br />
Geo<strong>the</strong>rmal<br />
11 20 29 38 53 Geo<strong>the</strong>rmal<br />
398 4<br />
Solar <strong>the</strong>rmal power plants<br />
93 30 75 123 168 Solar <strong>the</strong>rmal power plants<br />
17<br />
Ocean <strong>energy</strong><br />
8 19 27 40 Ocean <strong>energy</strong><br />
19<br />
Combined heat & power production 1 7 17 38 83 127 Combined heat & power production 0 2 4 8<br />
Coal<br />
0000000 0050100 00 00 00 00 Coal<br />
0000000 0010000 0030100 0<br />
Lignite<br />
Lignite<br />
0<br />
Gas<br />
12 25 47 650 Gas<br />
5<br />
Oil<br />
0400 0 0<br />
Oil<br />
0<br />
Biomass<br />
12 32 51 Biomass<br />
2<br />
Geo<strong>the</strong>rmal<br />
10 40 11 Geo<strong>the</strong>rmal<br />
0<br />
Hydrogen<br />
0 Hydrogen<br />
0<br />
CHP by producer<br />
Main activity producers<br />
0 3 5 17 40 58 CHP by producer<br />
Autoproducers<br />
1 4 12 21 43 69 Main activity producers<br />
0 1 1 4<br />
Autoproducers<br />
0 1 3 4<br />
Total generation<br />
258 346 413 528 695 882<br />
Fossil<br />
209 258 245 196 163 125 Total generation<br />
58 81 108 168<br />
Coal<br />
0 0 09 02 00 00 Fossil<br />
44 48 4302 3400<br />
Lignite<br />
31 16<br />
Coal<br />
04 03<br />
Gas<br />
126 202 212 189 163 125 Lignite<br />
Oil<br />
502 40190 24050 5000 0000 0000 Gas<br />
23 35 36 33<br />
Diesel<br />
Oil<br />
15 10 5010 1000<br />
Nuclear<br />
10 Diesel<br />
110 010<br />
Hydrogen<br />
0<br />
Nuclear<br />
Renewables<br />
38 79 163 332 532 757 Hydrogen<br />
Hydro<br />
27 30 32 32 32 32 Renewables<br />
13 32 64 134<br />
Wind<br />
003700 12 43 112 194 278 Hydro<br />
11 12 13 13<br />
PV<br />
68 15 41 77 123 Wind<br />
000100 652233 20 49<br />
Biomass<br />
15 23 37 52 PV<br />
10 27<br />
Geo<strong>the</strong>rmal<br />
11 20 30 42 64 Biomass<br />
3398 44<br />
Solar <strong>the</strong>rmal<br />
93 30 75 123 168 Geo<strong>the</strong>rmal<br />
Ocean <strong>energy</strong><br />
8 19 27 40 Solar <strong>the</strong>rmal<br />
17<br />
Ocean <strong>energy</strong><br />
19<br />
Distribution losses<br />
42 52 59 65 59 54<br />
Own consumption electricity<br />
18 16 18 23 26 29 Fluctuating RES (PV, Wind, Ocean) 0 14 38 96<br />
Electricity for hydrogen production 0 0 0 0 0 0 Share of fluctuating RES<br />
0.3% 17.0% 34.7% 57.0%<br />
Final <strong>energy</strong> consumption (electricity) 196 277 336 439 610 798<br />
RES share<br />
21.9% 39.4% 59.6% 79.5%<br />
Fluctuating RES (PV, Wind, Ocean) 0 21 66 172 298 441<br />
Share of fluctuating RES<br />
0.1% 6.1% 16.0% 32.6% 42.9% 50.0%<br />
table 10.11: <strong>mexico</strong>: primary <strong>energy</strong> demand<br />
RES share<br />
14.6% 22.8% 39.4% 62.8% 76.5% 85.8%<br />
‘Efficiency’ savings (compared to Ref.) 0 41 94 182 252 330<br />
PJ/A<br />
2007 2015<br />
2030<br />
Total<br />
6,460 7,831 8,220 8,333<br />
table 10.8: <strong>mexico</strong>: heat supply<br />
Fossil<br />
5,810 6,633 6,377 5,445<br />
Hard coal<br />
96 77 85 80<br />
2007 2015 2020 2030 2040 2050 Lignite<br />
316 153 77 17<br />
Natural gas<br />
1,652 2,345 2,426 2,193<br />
Crude oil<br />
3,746 4,057 3,790 3,155<br />
PJ/A<br />
District heating plants<br />
Fossil fuels<br />
Biomass<br />
Solar collectors<br />
Geo<strong>the</strong>rmal<br />
Heat from CHP<br />
Fossil fuels<br />
Biomass<br />
Geo<strong>the</strong>rmal<br />
Fuel cell (hydrogen)<br />
Direct heating 1)<br />
Fossil fuels<br />
Biomass<br />
Solar collectors<br />
Geo<strong>the</strong>rmal<br />
Total heat supply 1)<br />
Fossil fuels<br />
Biomass<br />
Solar collectors<br />
Geo<strong>the</strong>rmal<br />
Fuel cell (hydrogen)<br />
RES share<br />
(including RES electricity)<br />
‘Efficiency’ savings (compared to Ref.)<br />
1) heat from electricity (direct and from electric heat pumps) not included; covered in <strong>the</strong> model under ‘electric appliances’<br />
table 10.9: <strong>mexico</strong>: co2 emissions<br />
MILL t/a<br />
Condensation power plants<br />
Coal<br />
Lignite<br />
Gas<br />
Oil<br />
Diesel<br />
Combined heat & power production<br />
Coal<br />
Lignite<br />
Gas<br />
Oil<br />
CO2 emissions electricity<br />
& steam generation<br />
Coal<br />
Lignite<br />
Gas<br />
Oil & diesel<br />
CO2 emissions by sector<br />
% of 1990 emissions<br />
Industry<br />
O<strong>the</strong>r sectors<br />
Transport<br />
Electricity & steam generation<br />
District heating<br />
Population (Mill.)<br />
CO2 emissions per capita (t/capita)<br />
0<br />
0<br />
0<br />
0<br />
0<br />
0<br />
0<br />
0<br />
0<br />
0<br />
1,290<br />
1,047<br />
238<br />
50<br />
1,290<br />
1,047<br />
238<br />
500<br />
18.8%<br />
0<br />
2007<br />
131<br />
0<br />
35<br />
56<br />
39<br />
1<br />
0<br />
0000<br />
131<br />
0<br />
35<br />
56<br />
40<br />
397<br />
129%<br />
48<br />
40<br />
150<br />
131<br />
28<br />
107<br />
3.7<br />
22<br />
0<br />
18<br />
22<br />
15<br />
11<br />
400<br />
1,534<br />
1,177<br />
285<br />
55<br />
16<br />
1,570<br />
1,188<br />
308<br />
57<br />
18<br />
0<br />
24.3%<br />
41<br />
2015<br />
130<br />
0<br />
17<br />
84<br />
29<br />
0<br />
3<br />
0030<br />
133<br />
0<br />
17<br />
87<br />
29<br />
431<br />
140%<br />
51<br />
50<br />
167<br />
131<br />
31<br />
116<br />
3.7<br />
45<br />
0<br />
31<br />
76<br />
23<br />
14<br />
720<br />
1,663<br />
1,213<br />
284<br />
128<br />
38<br />
1,731<br />
1,227<br />
322<br />
135<br />
460<br />
29.1%<br />
135<br />
2020<br />
112<br />
09<br />
86<br />
17<br />
0<br />
4<br />
0040<br />
116<br />
09<br />
90<br />
17<br />
404<br />
131%<br />
51<br />
54<br />
158<br />
113<br />
28<br />
120<br />
3.4<br />
87<br />
0<br />
57<br />
17<br />
13<br />
40<br />
19<br />
11<br />
90<br />
1,789<br />
1,110<br />
294<br />
274<br />
111<br />
1,916<br />
1,129<br />
362<br />
292<br />
133<br />
0<br />
41.1%<br />
378<br />
2030<br />
75<br />
02<br />
6930<br />
6<br />
0060<br />
81<br />
02<br />
753<br />
332<br />
108%<br />
43<br />
52<br />
138<br />
77<br />
21<br />
126<br />
2.6<br />
135<br />
0<br />
74<br />
39<br />
22<br />
85<br />
29<br />
21<br />
35<br />
0<br />
1,850<br />
873<br />
321<br />
405<br />
251<br />
2,070<br />
902<br />
417<br />
444<br />
307<br />
0<br />
56.4%<br />
660<br />
2040<br />
49<br />
00<br />
49<br />
00<br />
13<br />
00<br />
13<br />
0<br />
62<br />
00<br />
62<br />
0<br />
255<br />
83%<br />
37<br />
39<br />
112<br />
55<br />
13<br />
130<br />
2.0<br />
162<br />
0<br />
73<br />
61<br />
27<br />
160<br />
36<br />
28<br />
95<br />
0<br />
1,867<br />
672<br />
276<br />
528<br />
392<br />
2,188<br />
708<br />
377<br />
589<br />
515<br />
0<br />
67.7%<br />
988<br />
2050<br />
25<br />
00<br />
25<br />
00<br />
17<br />
00<br />
17<br />
0<br />
42<br />
00<br />
42<br />
0<br />
180<br />
58%<br />
33<br />
26<br />
80<br />
33<br />
7<br />
129<br />
1.4<br />
Nuclear<br />
Renewables<br />
Hydro<br />
Wind<br />
Solar<br />
Biomass<br />
Geo<strong>the</strong>rmal<br />
Ocean Energy<br />
RES share<br />
‘Efficiency’ savings (compared to Ref.)<br />
PJ/a<br />
Total (incl. non-<strong>energy</strong> use)<br />
Total (<strong>energy</strong> use)<br />
Transport<br />
Oil products<br />
Natural gas<br />
Biofuels<br />
Electricity<br />
RES electricity<br />
Hydrogen<br />
RES share Transport<br />
Industry<br />
Electricity<br />
RES electricity<br />
District heat<br />
RES district heat<br />
Coal<br />
Oil products<br />
Gas<br />
Solar<br />
Biomass and waste<br />
Geo<strong>the</strong>rmal<br />
Hydrogen<br />
RES share Industry<br />
O<strong>the</strong>r Sectors<br />
Electricity<br />
RES electricity<br />
District heat<br />
RES district heat<br />
Coal<br />
Oil products<br />
Gas<br />
Solar<br />
Biomass and waste<br />
Geo<strong>the</strong>rmal<br />
RES share O<strong>the</strong>r Sectors<br />
Total RES<br />
RES share<br />
Non <strong>energy</strong> use<br />
Oil<br />
Gas<br />
Coal<br />
114<br />
536<br />
9815<br />
337<br />
950<br />
8.3%<br />
0<br />
2007<br />
4,805<br />
4,429<br />
2,129<br />
2,076<br />
4904<br />
0.6<br />
0<br />
0.0%<br />
1,210<br />
414<br />
6000<br />
83<br />
220<br />
444<br />
0<br />
4900<br />
9.0%<br />
1,090<br />
289<br />
42000<br />
502<br />
465<br />
248<br />
0<br />
27.1%<br />
405<br />
9.1%<br />
375<br />
273<br />
102<br />
0<br />
98<br />
1,100<br />
108<br />
43<br />
110<br />
681<br />
147<br />
11<br />
14.0%<br />
2020<br />
55<br />
1,788<br />
115<br />
155<br />
297<br />
918<br />
274<br />
29<br />
21.7%<br />
733 1,868<br />
table 10.12: <strong>mexico</strong>: final <strong>energy</strong> demand<br />
0<br />
2,888<br />
115<br />
403<br />
711<br />
1,130<br />
461<br />
68<br />
34.6%<br />
4,309<br />
2040<br />
222<br />
00<br />
190001<br />
13<br />
83<br />
51<br />
5<br />
22<br />
27<br />
17<br />
00<br />
10<br />
0610<br />
8<br />
9<br />
239<br />
3000<br />
29<br />
0000<br />
209<br />
13<br />
83<br />
51<br />
76<br />
22<br />
27<br />
161<br />
67.6%<br />
87.6%<br />
2040<br />
8,415<br />
4,332<br />
270<br />
1,969<br />
2,336<br />
0<br />
4,083<br />
115<br />
698<br />
1,164<br />
1,232<br />
776<br />
97<br />
48.5%<br />
6,542<br />
2050<br />
294<br />
00<br />
100000<br />
13<br />
116<br />
828<br />
26<br />
40<br />
25<br />
00<br />
14<br />
0920<br />
11<br />
14<br />
319<br />
2400<br />
24<br />
0000<br />
295<br />
13<br />
116<br />
8299<br />
26<br />
40<br />
238<br />
74.5%<br />
92.5%<br />
2050<br />
8,462<br />
3,176<br />
20<br />
1,559<br />
1,616<br />
0<br />
5,287<br />
115<br />
1,001<br />
1,637<br />
1,117<br />
1,273<br />
144<br />
62.5%<br />
8,717<br />
2015 2020 2030 2040 2050<br />
5,840 6,197 6,540 6,892 7,155<br />
5,432 5,793 6,144 6,505 6,776<br />
2,531 2,581 2,545 2,514 2,464<br />
2,315 2,180 1,885 1,505 1,055<br />
60 71 92 108 120<br />
140 256 370 406 400<br />
1640 73 198 495 889<br />
29 124 379 763<br />
0 0 0 0<br />
5.7% 11.0% 19.4% 31.2% 47.2%<br />
1,425 1,519 1,550 1,611 1,670<br />
533 592 648 730 797<br />
121 233 407 559 684<br />
24 33 47 66 100<br />
20 30 43 61 940<br />
74 77 73 23<br />
212 183 93 38 28<br />
493 510 494 476 430<br />
6 19 62 105 129<br />
8130 97 114 131 134<br />
80 170 420 510<br />
16.2% 25.6% 41.6% 55.7% 65.4%<br />
1,476 1,693 2,049 2,379 2,642<br />
450 543 736 970 1,187<br />
102 214 462 742 1,018<br />
13 34 80 154 221<br />
11 32 74 142 207<br />
0 0 0 0 0<br />
622 650 606 406 230<br />
60 83 103 133 139<br />
49 109 212 300 399<br />
273 251 242 253 191<br />
10 22 70 163 275<br />
30.1% 37.1% 51.7% 67.3% 79.1%<br />
820 1,301 2,198 3,283 4,344<br />
15.1% 22.5% 35.8% 50.5% 64.1%<br />
408 404 396 387 379<br />
297 294 288 282 276<br />
111 110 108 106 104<br />
0 0 0 0 0<br />
109<br />
10<br />
glossary & appendix | APPENDIX - MEXICO
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