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WORLD ENERGY [R]EVOLUTION A SUSTAINABLE ENERGY OUTLOOK “Worldwide we would see more direct jobs created in the energy sector if we shift to either of the Energy [R]evolution scenarios than if we continue business as usual.” The total fuel cost savings in the Energy [R]evolution Scenario reach a total of $2.0 trillion, or $45 billion per year. The advanced Energy [R]evolution has even higher fuel cost savings of $2.2 trillion, or $51 billion per year. This is because renewable energy has no fuel costs. So in both cases the additional investment for renewable power plants refinance entirely via the fuel cost savings, which add up to $518 billion ($740 billion in the advanced case) from today until 2050. This is enough to compensate for the entire investment in renewable and cogeneration capacity required to implement both of the Energy [R]evolution scenarios two times over. future global employment The Energy [R]evolution scenarios lead to more energy sector jobs in Mexico at every stage of the projection. • There are 185,000 energy sector jobs in the Energy [R]evolution scenario and 228,000 in the advanced version by 2015, compared to 127,000 in the Reference scenario. • By 2020 job numbers reach 181,000 in the Energy [R]evolution scenario (166,000 in the advanced version), twice as much as in the Reference scenario. • By 2030 job numbers in the renewable energy sector remain at around 120,000 in the Energy [R]evolution scenario, while the advanced version has a further growth up to 138,000. In the Reference scenario jobs in the renewable power sector has only 26,000 jobs. development of CO2 emissions Whilst Mexico’s emissions of CO2 will increase by -166% under the Reference scenario, under the Energy [R]evolution scenario they will decrease from 397 million tons in 2007 to 180 million tons in 2050. Annual per capita emissions will drop from 3.7 to 1.4 tons. In spite of the phasing out of nuclear energy and increasing demand, CO2 emissions will decrease in the electricity sector. In the long run efficiency gains and the increased use of renewable electricity in the transport sector will even reduce CO2 emissions. With a share of 45% of total CO2, the transport sector will be the largest source of emissions in 2050. The advanced Energy [R]evolution scenario reduces energy related CO2 emissions over a period ten to 15 years faster than the basic scenario, leading to 2.3 tons per capita by 2030 and 0.5 tons by 2050. By 2050, Mexico’s CO2 emissions are 77% below 1990 levels. policy changes To make the Energy [R]evolution real and to avoid dangerous climate change, Greenpeace and EREC demand that the following policies and actions are implemented in the energy sector: 1. Phase out all subsidies for fossil fuels and nuclear energy. 2. Internalize the external (social and environmental) costs of energy production through emissions trading and regulation. 3. Mandate strict efficiency standards for all energy consuming appliances, buildings and vehicles. 4. Establish legally binding targets for renewable energy and combined heat and power generation. 5. Reform the electricity markets by guaranteeing priority access to the grid for renewable power generators. 6. Provide defined and stable returns for investors, with programs like feed-in tariffs. 7. Implement better labelling and disclosure mechanisms to provide more environmental product information. 8. Increase research and development budgets for renewable energy and energy efficiency. figure 0.1: development of primary energy consumption under the three scenarios (‘EFFICIENCY’ = REDUCTION COMPARED TO THE REFERENCE SCENARIO) 18,000 16,000 14,000 12,000 10,000 8,000 6,000 4,000 2,000 PJ/a 0 REF E[R] adv E[R] REF E[R] adv E[R] REF E[R] adv E[R] REF E[R] adv E[R] REF E[R] adv E[R] REF E[R] adv E[R] ‘EFFICIENCY’ OCEAN ENERGY GEOTHERMAL SOLAR BIOMASS WIND HYDRO NATURAL GAS OIL • COAL NUCLEAR 12 2007 2015 2020 2030 2040 2050
image CONSTRUCTION OF THE OFFSHORE WINDFARM AT MIDDELGRUNDEN NEAR COPENHAGEN, DENMARK. © PAUL LANGROCK/ZENIT/GP table 0.1: energy [r]evolution: summary for policy makers emissions transport consumer final energy heating power mechanisms targets targets POLICY Climate • Peak global temperature rise well below 2°C • Reduce ghg emissions by 40% by 2020 (as compared to 1990) in developed countries • Reduce ghg emissions by 15 to 30% of projected growth by 2020 in developing countries • Achieve zero deforestation globally by 2020 • Agree a legally binding global climate deal as soon as possible Energy • USA: binding target of at least 20% renewable energy in primary energy consumption by 2020 • G8: min 20% renewable energy by 2020 • No new construction permits for new coal power plants in Annex 1 countries by 2012 • Priority access to the grid for renewables • Establish efficiency targets and strict standards for electric applications • Strict efficiency target for vehicles: 80g CO2/km by 2020 • Build regulations with mandatory renewable energy shares (e.g. solar collectors) • Co-generation law for industry and district heating support program Finance • Phase-out subsidies for fossil and nuclear fuels • Put in place a Climate Fund under the auspices of the UNFCCC • Provide at least 140 billion USD/year to the Climate Fund by 2020 • Ensure priority access to the fund for vulnerable countries and communities • Establish feed-in law for renewable power generation in Annex 1 countries • Establish feed-in law with funding from Annex 1 countries for dev. countries ENERGY [R]EVOLUTION RESULTS Renewables & Supply Global Renewable Power Generation • Shares (max = adv. ER - Min = ER): 30% / 50% / 75% / over 90% • Implementation of Smart Grids (Policy/Planning/Construction) • Smart Grids interconnection to Super Grids (Policy/Planning/Construction) • Renewables cost competitive (max = worst case - min = best case) • Phase out of coal power plants in OECD countries • Phase out of nuclear power plants in OECD countries Global Renewable Heat supply shares • Shares (max = adv. ER - Min = ER): 30% / 50% / 75% / over 90% • Implementation of district heating (Policy/Planning/Construction) • Renewables cost competive (max = worst case - min = best case) Global Renewable Final Energy shares • Shares (max = adv. ER - Min = ER): 30% / 50% / 75% / over 90% • Consumer and business (Other Sectors) • Industry • Transport • Total Final Energy Efficiency & Demand Global Statonary Energy Use • Efficiency standards reduce OECD household demand to 550 kWh/a per person • Power demand for IT equipment stablized and start to decrease • National energy intensity drops to 3 MJ/$GDP (Japan’s level today) Global Transport Development • Shift fright from road to rail and where possible from aviation to ships • Shift towards more public transport • Efficient cars become mainstream WHO 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 UNFCCC UNFCCC UNFCCC UNFCCC UNFCCC USA G8 G8 G8 National Governments National Governments National Governments National Governments G20 UNFCCC UNFCCC UNFCCC National Governments G8 + G77 Utilities & RE Industry National Governments Gov & Grid Operator RE - Industry Utilities Utilities RE Industry National Governments RE Industry Cusumer Product Dev. IT Industry Industry + Gov. Gov. + Logistic Industry Regional Governments Car-Industry Energy Related CO2 Emissions • Global CO2 reductions (min = adv. ER - Max = ER): Emission peak / -30% / -50% / -80% • Annex 1 CO2 reductions (min = adv. ER - Max = ER): Emission peak / -30% / -50% / -80% • Non Annex 1 CO2 reductions (min = adv. ER - Max = ER): Emission peak / -30% / -50% / -80% 13
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Page 45 and 46: Moving from principles to action on
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image THE SUN IN THE DESERT, MEXICO
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image GEOTHERMIC WELL IN THE AZUFRE
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The issue of security of supply is
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This chapter describes the range of
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geothermal energy Geothermal energy
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climate and energy policy GLOBAL ST
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image A WOMAN IN FRONT OF HER FLOOD
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image A YOUNG INDIGENOUS NENET BOY
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glossary & appendix GLOBAL 0 “bec
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mexico: energy [r]evolution scenari
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mexico: total new investment by tec
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