download the mexico energy revolution scenario

WORLD ENERGY [R]EVOLUTION
A SUSTAINABLE ENERGY OUTLOOK
“Worldwide we would see more direct jobs created in the
energy sector if we shift to either of the Energy [R]evolution
scenarios than if we continue business as usual.”
The total fuel cost savings in the Energy [R]evolution Scenario reach
a total of $2.0 trillion, or $45 billion per year. The advanced Energy
[R]evolution has even higher fuel cost savings of $2.2 trillion, or
$51 billion per year. This is because renewable energy has no fuel
costs. So in both cases the additional investment for renewable power
plants refinance entirely via the fuel cost savings, which add up to
$518 billion ($740 billion in the advanced case) from today until
2050. This is enough to compensate for the entire investment in
renewable and cogeneration capacity required to implement both of
the Energy [R]evolution scenarios two times over.
future global employment
The Energy [R]evolution scenarios lead to more energy sector jobs
in Mexico at every stage of the projection.
• There are 185,000 energy sector jobs in the Energy [R]evolution
scenario and 228,000 in the advanced version by 2015,
compared to 127,000 in the Reference scenario.
• By 2020 job numbers reach 181,000 in the Energy [R]evolution
scenario (166,000 in the advanced version), twice as much as in
the Reference scenario.
• By 2030 job numbers in the renewable energy sector remain at around
120,000 in the Energy [R]evolution scenario, while the advanced
version has a further growth up to 138,000. In the Reference scenario
jobs in the renewable power sector has only 26,000 jobs.
development of CO2 emissions
Whilst Mexico’s emissions of CO2 will increase by -166% under the
Reference scenario, under the Energy [R]evolution scenario they will
decrease from 397 million tons in 2007 to 180 million tons in 2050.
Annual per capita emissions will drop from 3.7 to 1.4 tons. In spite of
the phasing out of nuclear energy and increasing demand, CO2
emissions will decrease in the electricity sector. In the long run
efficiency gains and the increased use of renewable electricity in the
transport sector will even reduce CO2 emissions. With a share of 45%
of total CO2, the transport sector will be the largest source of emissions
in 2050. The advanced Energy [R]evolution scenario reduces energy
related CO2 emissions over a period ten to 15 years faster than the
basic scenario, leading to 2.3 tons per capita by 2030 and 0.5 tons by
2050. By 2050, Mexico’s CO2 emissions are 77% below 1990 levels.
policy changes
To make the Energy [R]evolution real and to avoid dangerous
climate change, Greenpeace and EREC demand that the following
policies and actions are implemented in the energy sector:
1. Phase out all subsidies for fossil fuels and nuclear energy.
2. Internalize the external (social and environmental) costs of
energy production through emissions trading and regulation.
3. Mandate strict efficiency standards for all energy consuming
appliances, buildings and vehicles.
4. Establish legally binding targets for renewable energy and
combined heat and power generation.
5. Reform the electricity markets by guaranteeing priority access to
the grid for renewable power generators.
6. Provide defined and stable returns for investors, with programs
like feed-in tariffs.
7. Implement better labelling and disclosure mechanisms to provide
more environmental product information.
8. Increase research and development budgets for renewable energy
and energy efficiency.
figure 0.1: development of primary energy consumption under the three scenarios
(‘EFFICIENCY’ = REDUCTION COMPARED TO THE REFERENCE SCENARIO)
18,000
16,000
14,000
12,000
10,000
8,000
6,000
4,000
2,000
PJ/a 0
REF E[R]
adv
E[R]
REF E[R]
adv
E[R]
REF E[R]
adv
E[R]
REF E[R]
adv
E[R]
REF E[R]
adv
E[R]
REF E[R]
adv
E[R]
‘EFFICIENCY’
OCEAN ENERGY
GEOTHERMAL
SOLAR
BIOMASS
WIND
HYDRO
NATURAL GAS
OIL
• COAL
NUCLEAR
12
2007
2015
2020
2030
2040
2050