download the mexico energy revolution scenario

WORLD ENERGY [R]EVOLUTION
A SUSTAINABLE ENERGY OUTLOOK
6
key results | CO2 EMISSIONS & PRIMARY ENERGY CONSUMPTION
development of CO2 emissions
Whilst Mexico’s emissions of CO2 will increase by 166% under the
Reference scenario, under the Energy [R]evolution scenario they will
decrease from 397 million tons in 2007 to 180 million tons in
2050. Annual per capita emissions will drop from 3.7 tons to 1.4
tons. In spite of the phasing out of nuclear energy and increasing
demand, CO2 emissions will decrease in the electricity sector. In the
long run efficiency gains and the increased use of renewable
electricity in the transport sector will even reduce CO2 emissions.
With a share of 45% of total CO2, the transport sector will be the
largest source of emissions in 2050. The advanced Energy
[R]evolution scenario reduces energy related CO2 emissions over a
period ten to 15 years faster than the basic scenario, leading to
2.3 tons per capita by 2030 and 0.5 tons by 2050. By 2050,
Mexico’s CO2 emissions are 77% below 1990 levels.
primary energy consumption
Taking into account the assumptions discussed above, the resulting
primary energy consumption under the Energy Revolution Scenario is
shown in Figure 6.9. Compared to the Reference Scenario, overall
energy demand will be reduced to 49% in 2050. Around 62% of the
remaining demand will be covered by renewable energy sources
The advanced version phases out coal and oil about ten to 15 years
faster than the basic scenario. This is made possible mainly by the
replacement of new coal power plants with renewables after a 20 rather
than 40 year lifetime and a faster introduction of electric vehicles in the
transport sector to replace oil combustion engines. This leads to an
overall renewable energy share of 41% in 2030 and 82% in 2050.
Nuclear power is phased out in both Energy [R]evolution scenarios soon
after 2040.
figure 6.8: development of CO2 emissions by sector under
both energy [r]evolution scenarios
Mil t/a
1,100
1,000
900
800
700
600
500
400
300
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100
0
E[R] adv
E[R]
E[R] adv
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E[R] adv
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E[R] adv
E[R]
2007 2015 2020 2030 2040
POPULATION DEVELOPMENT
SAVINGS FROM ‘EFFICIENCY’ & RENEWABLES
OTHER SECTORS
INDUSTRY
• TRANSPORT
PUBLIC ELECTRICITY & CHP
E[R] adv
E[R]
2050
Million
people
140
120
100
80
60
40
20
0
figure 6.9: development of primary energy consumption under three scenarios
18,000
16,000
14,000
12,000
10,000
8,000
6,000
4,000
2,000
PJ/a 0
REF E[R]
adv
E[R]
REF E[R]
adv
E[R]
REF E[R]
adv
E[R]
REF E[R]
adv
E[R]
REF E[R]
adv
E[R]
REF E[R]
adv
E[R]
‘EFFICIENCY’
OCEAN ENERGY
GEOTHERMAL
SOLAR
BIOMASS
WIND
HYDRO
NATURAL GAS
OIL
• COAL
NUCLEAR
2007
2015
2020
2030
2040
2050
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