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WORLD ENERGY [R]EVOLUTION A SUSTAINABLE ENERGY OUTLOOK 2 implementing the energy [r]evolution | GREENHOUSE DEVELOPMENT RIGHTS table 2.6: population, income, capacity, responsibility and RCI calculated for 2010 for IEA regions and selected countries, plus projected 2020 and 2030 RCI. REGION/COUNTRY OECD North America United States Mexico Canada Europe Pacific Japan Non-OECD E.Europe/Eurasia Russia Asia China India Middle East Africa Latin America Brazil World European Union POPULATION (2010) 17.6% 6.6% 4.5% 1.6% 0.5% 8.0% 3.0% 1.9% 82.4% 4.9% 2.0% 52.5% 19.7% 17.2% 14.9% 3.1% 7.0% 2.9% 100.0% 7.3% INCOME USD /A (2010) 32,413 37,128 45,640 12,408 38,472 29,035 30,961 33,422 5,137 11,089 15,031 4,424 5,899 2,818 2,617 12,098 8,645 9,442 9,929 30,471 CAPACITY (2010) 86.6% 39.8% 35.8% 1.3% 2.6% 29.3% 17.5% 14.3% 13.4% 1.5% 0.9% 5.6% 2.9% 0.1% 0.8% 2.4% 3.1% 1.5% 100.0% 28.1% RESPONSIBILITY (2010) 75.3% 41.5% 36.8% 1.6% 3.1% 22.2% 11.5% 7.3% 24.7% 7.8% 5.9% 7.2% 4.3% 0.1% 2.0% 4.8% 2.9% 1.1% 100.0% 21.8% RCI (2010) 80.9% 40.6% 36.3% 1.5% 2.9% 25.8% 14.5% 10.8% 19.1% 4.7% 3.4% 6.4% 3.6% 0.1% 1.4% 3.6% 3.0% 1.3% 100.0% 25.0% RCI (2020) 72.8% 36.9% 32.7% 1.5% 2.7% 23.2% 12.7% 9.2% 27.2% 5.2% 3.5% 12.7% 8.3% 0.5% 1.7% 4.3% 3.3% 1.4% 100.0% 22.6% RCI (2030) 63.7% 32.9% 28.9% 1.5% 2.5% 20.1% 10.7% 7.4% 36.3% 5.7% 3.8% 20.1% 13.6% 1.3% 2.0% 4.8% 3.6% 1.4% 100.0% 19.6% A more detailed description of the GDR framework can be found in “The Greenhouse Development Right Framework” published in November 2008. 30 For this study, the standard GDR framework has been slightly modified to account for the most recent IEA World Energy Outlook 2009 baseline emissions and economic growth scenario up to 2030, and for the target pathways defined by the Energy [R]evolution and advanced Energy [R]evolution scenarios (for more details see Chapter 6). Because the GDR framework calculates the share of global climate obligation for each country, it can therefore be used to calculate (against a baseline) the amount of reductions required for each country to meet an international target. In Figure figure 2.3: energy [r]evolution wedges 2.3 we show the global obligation required to move from the IEA baseline to the emissions pathway in the Energy [R]evolution scenario (declining to 25 GtCO2 in 2020 and 21 GtCO2 in 2030), with the reduction divided into “wedges” proportional to each country’s share. Figure 2.4 shows the global emissions reductions required under the advanced Energy [R]evolution scenario, also divided into “wedges” proportional to each country or region’s Responsibility and Capacity Indicator. Note that the size of each wedge in percentage terms changes over time, consistent with Table 2.6. The largest share is for the US, followed by Europe, while the wedges for India and China increase over time. Africa and Developing Asia have the smallest wedges. figure 2.4: advanced energy [r]evolution wedges 45,000 45,000 fossil CO2 emissions (Mt CO2) 40,000 35,000 30,000 25,000 20,000 15,000 10,000 fossil CO2 emissions (Mt CO2) 40,000 35,000 30,000 25,000 20,000 15,000 10,000 5,000 5,000 0 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 0 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 references 30 THE GREENHOUSE DEVELOPMENT RIGHT FRAMEWORK” PUBLISHED IN NOVEMBER 2008, BAER ET AL. 2008 26 BAU UNITED STATES • OECD EUROPE OTHER OECD EITs CHINA • INDIA OTHER NON-OECD
The charts in Figure 2.5 show for the US, EU, India and China, the relationship between domestic emissions reductions under the Energy [R]evolution scenarios and the allocation of responsibility through the GDR framework. For the EU and the US, the allocations (solid blue and green lines) are well below the estimated emissions (dotted blue and green lines), with the difference resulting from an international obligation to fund reductions in other countries. In India and China, by contrast, the allocation of permits is greater than the estimated emissions, indicating that other countries will need to support a reduction from the level indicated by the allocation (solid lines) and projected emissions (dashed lines). Because the forward calculation of the Responsibility and Capacity Indicator (RCI) depends on the budget that is allocated, the percentage reductions of different countries and regions are slightly different under the Energy [R]evolution and advanced Energy [R]evolution pathways. Nevertheless, because neither capacity nor responsibility from 1990-2010 vary in the two scenarios, the RCIs figure 2.5: annual ghg emissions and reduction pathways allocated under the GDR system for the USA, Europe, China and India image WIND TURBINES AT THE NAN WIND FARM IN NAN’AO. GUANGDONG PROVINCE HAS ONE OF THE BEST WIND RESOURCES IN CHINA AND IS ALREADY HOME TO SEVERAL INDUSTRIAL SCALE WIND FARMS. for specific countries are still quite similar, and thus the actual allocations going forward differ between the two scenarios primarily because of the stricter targets in the advanced scenario. It is also important to note that because GDRs allocate obligations as a percentage of the global commitment, measured in MtCO2 in this example, a country with lower per capita emissions will appear to have a more stringent reduction target, when their target is stated in terms of a percentage of 1990 emissions by 2020 or 2030. However, it should be borne in mind that the GDR calculation does not specify the split between domestic and internationally supported reductions. Since we assume that emissions trading or a similar mechanism will lead to a rough equalisation of the marginal cost of reductions, it is in essence the “per capita tonnes of reductions”, and thus per capita costs, which are made comparable (not equal) through the calculation of the RCI. With this in mind, we can see under the Energy [R]evolution scenario that the OECD nations have a global responsibility equal to a reduction to 45% below 1990 levels in 2020 and 2% of 1990 levels in 2030. © GP/XUAN CANXIONG 2 implementing the energy [r]evolution | GREENHOUSE DEVELOPMENT RIGHTS 5,000 European Union 6,000 United States annual CO2 emissions (Mt CO2) 4,000 3,000 2,000 1,000 percent of CO2 emissions annual CO2 emissions (Mt CO2) 5,000 4,000 3,000 2,000 1,000 percent of CO2 emissions 0 -500 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 0 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 12,000 China 4,000 India annual CO2 emissions (Mt CO2) 10,000 8,000 6,000 4,000 2,000 percent of CO2 emissions annual CO2 emissions (MtCO2) 3,000 2,000 1,000 percent of CO2 emissions 0 0 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 BUSINESS AS USUAL ENERGY [R]EVOLUTION PATHWAY GDRS ALLOCATION UNDER ENERGY [R]EVOLUTION ENERGY [R]EVOLUTION PATHWAY GDRS ALLOCATION UNDER ADVANCED ENERGY [R]EVOLUTION 27
Page 1 and 2: energy [r]evolution A SUSTAINABLE E
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Page 15 and 16: The greenhouse effect is the proces
Page 17 and 18: demands for the energy sector Green
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Page 21 and 22: policies to considerate Legislation
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This chapter describes the range of
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geothermal energy Geothermal energy
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climate and energy policy GLOBAL ST
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glossary & appendix GLOBAL 0 “bec
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