3nuclear power and climate protection GLOBAL A SOLUTION TO CLIMATE PROTECTION? NUCLEAR POWER BLOCKS SOLUTIONS NUCLEAR POWER IN THE E[R] SCENARIO THE DANGERS OF NUCLEAR POWER NUCLEAR PROLIFERATION NUCLEAR WASTE SAFETY RISKS image SIGN ON A RUSTY DOOR AT CHERNOBYL ATOMIC STATION. © DMYTRO/DREAMSTIME “safety and security risks, radioactive waste, nuclear proliferation...” GREENPEACE INTERNATIONAL CLIMATE CAMPAIGN 30
Nuclear <strong>energy</strong> is a relatively minor industry with major problems. It covers just one sixteenth of <strong>the</strong> world’s primary <strong>energy</strong> consumption, a share set to decline over <strong>the</strong> coming decades. The average age of operating commercial nuclear reactors is 23 years, so more power stations are being shut down than started. In 2008, world nuclear production fell by 2% compared to 2006, and <strong>the</strong> number of operating reactors as of January 2010 was 436, eight less than at <strong>the</strong> historical peak of 2002. In terms of new power stations, <strong>the</strong> amount of nuclear capacity added annually between 2000 and 2009 was on average 2,500 MWe. This was six times less than wind power (14,500 MWe per annum between 2000 and 2009). In 2009, 37,466 MW of new wind power capacity was added globally to <strong>the</strong> grid, compared to only 1,068 MW of nuclear. This new wind capacity will generate as much electricity as 12 nuclear reactors; <strong>the</strong> last time <strong>the</strong> nuclear industry managed to add this amount of new capacity in a single year was in 1988. Despite <strong>the</strong> rhetoric of a ‘nuclear renaissance’, <strong>the</strong> industry is struggling with a massive increase in costs and construction delays as well as safety and security problems linked to reactor operation, radioactive waste and nuclear proliferation. a solution to climate protection? The promise of nuclear <strong>energy</strong> to contribute to both climate protection and <strong>energy</strong> supply needs to be checked against reality. In <strong>the</strong> most recent Energy Technology Perspectives report published by <strong>the</strong> International Energy Agency 31 , for example, its Blue Map <strong>scenario</strong> outlines a future <strong>energy</strong> mix which would halve global carbon emissions by <strong>the</strong> middle of this century. To reach this goal <strong>the</strong> IEA assumes a massive expansion of nuclear power between now and 2050, with installed capacity increasing four-fold and electricity generation reaching 9,857 TWh/year, compared to 2,608 TWh in 2007. In order to achieve this, <strong>the</strong> report says that 32 large reactors (1,000 MWe each) would have to be built every year from now until 2050. This would be unrealistic, expensive, hazardous and too late to make a difference. Even so, according to <strong>the</strong> IEA <strong>scenario</strong>, such a massive nuclear expansion would cut carbon emissions by less than 5%. unrealistic: Such a rapid growth is practically impossible given <strong>the</strong> technical limitations. This scale of development was achieved in <strong>the</strong> history of nuclear power for only two years at <strong>the</strong> peak of <strong>the</strong> statedriven boom of <strong>the</strong> mid-1980s. It is unlikely to be achieved again, not to mention maintained for 40 consecutive years. While 1984 and 1985 saw 31 GW of newly added nuclear capacity, <strong>the</strong> decade average was 17 GW each year. In <strong>the</strong> past ten years, less than three large reactors have been brought on line annually, and <strong>the</strong> current production capacity of <strong>the</strong> global nuclear industry cannot deliver more than an annual six units. image MEASURING RADIATION LEVELS OF A HOUSE IN THE TOWN OF PRIPYAT THAT WAS LEFT ABANDONED AFTER THE NUCLEAR DISASTER. expensive: The IEA <strong>scenario</strong> assumes very optimistic investment costs of $2,100/kWe installed, in line with what <strong>the</strong> industry has been promising. The reality indicates three to four times that much. Recent estimates by US business analysts Moody’s (May 2008) put <strong>the</strong> cost of nuclear investment as high as $7,500/kWe. Price quotes for projects under preparation in <strong>the</strong> US cover a range from $5,200 to 8,000/kWe. 32 The latest cost estimate for <strong>the</strong> first French EPR pressurised water reactor being built in Finland is $5,000/kWe, a figure likely to increase for later reactors as prices escalate. The Wall Street Journal has reported that <strong>the</strong> cost index for nuclear components has risen by 173% since 2000 – a near tripling over <strong>the</strong> past eight years. 33 Building 1,400 large reactors of 1,000 MWe, even at <strong>the</strong> current cost of about $7,000/kWe, would require an investment of $9.8 trillion. hazardous: Massive expansion of nuclear <strong>energy</strong> would necessarily lead to a large increase in related hazards. These include <strong>the</strong> risk of serious reactor accidents, <strong>the</strong> growing stockpiles of deadly high level nuclear waste which will need to be safeguarded for thousands of years, and potential proliferation of both nuclear technologies and materials through diversion to military or terrorist use. The 1,400 large operating reactors in 2050 would generate an annual 35,000 tonnes of spent fuel (assuming <strong>the</strong>y are light water reactors, <strong>the</strong> most common design for most new projects). This also means <strong>the</strong> production of 350,000 kilograms of plutonium each year, enough to build 35,000 crude nuclear weapons. Most of <strong>the</strong> expected electricity demand growth by 2050 will occur in non-OECD countries. This means that a large proportion of <strong>the</strong> new reactors would need to be built in those countries in order to have a global impact on emissions. At <strong>the</strong> moment, <strong>the</strong> list of countries with announced nuclear ambitions is long and worrying in terms of <strong>the</strong>ir political situation and stability, especially with <strong>the</strong> need to guarantee against <strong>the</strong> hazards of accidents and proliferation for many decades. The World Nuclear Association listed <strong>the</strong> Emerging Nuclear Energy Countries in February 2010. In Europe this included Italy, Albania, Serbia, Portugal, Norway, Poland, Belarus, Estonia, Latvia, Ireland and Turkey. In <strong>the</strong> Middle East and North Africa: Iran, Gulf states including UAE, Yemen, Israel, Syria, Jordan, Egypt, Tunisia, Libya, Algeria and Morocco. In central and sou<strong>the</strong>rn Africa: Nigeria, Ghana, Uganda and Namibia. In South America: Chile, Ecuador and Venezuela. In central and sou<strong>the</strong>rn Asia: Azerbaijan, Georgia, Kazakhstan, Mongolia and Bangladesh. In South East Asia: Indonesia, Philippines, Vietnam, Thailand, Malaysia, Australia and New Zealand. slow: Climate science says that we need to reach a peak of global greenhouse gas emissions in 2015 and reduce <strong>the</strong>m by 20% by 2020. Even in developed countries with an established nuclear infrastructure it takes at least a decade from <strong>the</strong> decision to build a reactor to <strong>the</strong> delivery of its first electricity, and often much longer. This means that even if <strong>the</strong> world’s governments decided to implement strong nuclear expansion now, only a few reactors would start generating electricity before 2020. The contribution from nuclear power towards reducing emissions would come too late to help. © GP/STEVE MORGAN 3 nuclear power and climate protection | A SOLUTION TO CLIMATE PROTECTION? references 31 ‘ENERGY TECHNOLOGY PERSPECTIVES 2008 - SCENARIOS & STRATEGIES TO 2050’, IEA. 32 PLATTS, 2008; ENERGY BIZ, MAY/JUNE 2008 33 WALL STREET JOURNAL, 29 MAY 2008 31