housing developments in european countries - Department of ...

Section 2
Context
Context Section 2
2.11 Germany
Table
2.11.1
Characteristics of the Housing Stock
in Germany, 2002
Table
2.11.2
Economic Trends in Germany, 1995-2001
2.11.1 Policy Making and
Implementation
Housing policy in Germany is designed to address
relevant housing market developments. At national
level, housing markets are more or less in equilibrium.
However, at the same time the balance between
demand and supply varies in regional housing markets,
depending on the level of economic dynamism locally
and consequent migratory movements. The situation
calls for increased differentiation in the objectives of
housing policy to address these regional issues.
Another key tenet of housing policy in Germany is the
promotion of owner occupation as an important
component of people’s retirement plans, the provision
of support to low-income households by means of
housing benefit and the promotion of social housing
and co-operative housing.
2.11.2 Stock
In 2002, the housing stock in Germany totalled
35,800,000 occupied dwellings or 434.3 per 1,000
inhabitants. Of these, 20.6 million (57.7%) were
rented and 15.1 million (43.2%) were owner-occupied.
6% of dwellings were rented from social landlords.
The number of owner-occupier households in the
country has risen by 1.7% since 1998, although the
German home ownership rate remains the lowest of
the 28 countries under examination. The increase in
owner occupation has been larger in the regions within
the former German Democratic Republic (GDR). Thus,
while the level of owner occupation is approximately
10% higher in Western Germany as compared to the
east, in the latter region the number of young
households entering the owner-occupier housing
market has moved closer to the average for Western
Germany in recent years.
TABLE 2.11.1 sketches the key characteristics of the
German housing stock. It reveals that compared to
many other European countries the German housing
Category %
Dwellings by size < 40m 2 4.7
40-60 m 2 17.9
60-80 m 2 25.4
80-100 m 2 17.6
> 100 m 2 34.4
Dwellings by period
of construction < 1949 27.9
1949-1978 46.9
1979-1986 10.9
1987-1990 3.2
> 1990 11.1
stock is comparatively young – 25% of all dwellings
have been built since 1979. In addition, in terms of
floor space German dwellings are relatively generously
sized – 77% are larger than 60 m 2 in size.
Vacancy rates vary quite considerably from region to
region in Germany. Until recently, in western Germany
housing vacancies have generally been a temporary
phenomenon. However, in some regions within the
former GDR a decrease in population has created a
problem of redundant housing. In these areas there is
an excess supply of vacant dwellings, amounting to
more than 1.1 million dwellings, for which there will
be no demand in the foreseeable future. This has in
turn undermined local rental markets and created
problems of urban decline. Although this phenomenon
is a limited problem, it is being closely monitored by
central and regional government.
2.11.3 Economy
Details of recent economic trends in Germany are set
out in TABLE 2.11.2. which shows that the rate of
growth in GDP in this country has fallen in recent
years – from 1.7% in 1995 to 0.8% in 2001. At the
same time inflation has increased marginally – from
1.2% in 1996 to 1.9% in 2001. But unemployment
has fallen from 8.0% of the labour force in 1995 to
7.8% in 2001.
Category 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001
% % % % % % %
Change in GDP at current prices (%) 1.7 0.8 1.4 2.0 2.0 2.9 0.8
Unemployed persons as a % of the labour force 8.0 8.7 9.7 9.1 8.4 7.8 7.8
Change in the consumer price index (%) Nav 1.2 1.5 0.6 0.6 1.4 1.9
2.11.4 Demography
Table
2.11.3
In 2002, the population of Germany totalled
82,537,000 persons. The German population has
increased slightly since 1992 when it stood at
80,274,600 persons. TABLE 2.11.3 demonstrates that
this population increase is the result of net migration
rather than natural increase, as the birth rate in
Germany has been consistently low since the 1970s.
Indeed, as a result of the low birth rate, the population
is projected to decline significantly after 2020. The
extent of the decrease will be largely determined by the
level of immigration to Germany. However, estimates
suggest that the population will decrease to just below
70 million by the year 2050, or by some 15%
compared to the current population.
TABLE 2.11.3 also demonstrates that these low birth
rates have also contributed to the ageing of the
Demographic Trends in Germany, 1992-2000
German population structure. Forecasts suggest that
between now and the year 2050 the ratio of the over-
60s to the 20-60 year age group will approximately
double. In 2001 there were 100 persons of working
age in Germany for every 44 persons of pensionable
age. The latter figure will rise to 54 by the year 2020,
while the elderly dependency ratio is expected to rise
to 75 by the year 2050.
In 2002, there were 38,720,000 households in
Germany. The average household size in this country
has remained stable since 1992, at 2.2 persons.
However, between now and the year 2020 the average
size of German households is projected to fall further
due to increasing numbers of 1 and 2 person
households and as a consequence the number of
households is set to increase.
Category 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000
Population by age group (%) 0-14 years 16.3 16.4 16.2 16.0 15.7
15-24 years 12.8 11.8 11.2 11.0 11.1
25-49 years 36.6 37.4 38.1 38.4 38.0
50-64 years 19.3 19.3 18.9 18.8 19.0
65-79 years 9.3 10.0 10.7 11.5 12.3
> 80 years 3.8 4.0 4.0 3.7 3.6
Population change
(per 1,000 population) Net migration 9.6 3.9 3.4 0.6 2.0
National population change –0.9 –1.4 –1.1 –0.8 –0.9
Average number of persons per private households 2.2 2.2 2.2 2.2 2.2
42 European Union Report
Regular National Report on Housing Developments in European Countries
43