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Kalimantan Forests and Climate Partnership (KFCP) Design ...

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sometimes speeding up <strong>and</strong> at other times slowing. Indonesia has a history of periodic severe fire<br />

seasons, for example 1982/83, 1992/93, 1997/98, that will need to be considered. Inclusion or<br />

exclusion of a particular fire season in an historic REL will also have a strong influence. Depending<br />

on which REL is chosen there are substantial differences in the potential pool of carbon credits.<br />

Modelled REL<br />

Applying a modelling approach allows the identification <strong>and</strong> assessment of affects in the future of the<br />

drivers of deforestation that include population growth <strong>and</strong> economic development. The IFCA process<br />

notes that economic models can be used to project deforestation based on planned development. This<br />

enables variation between provinces in a country to be identified <strong>and</strong> considered, such as a relatively<br />

undeveloped province where large areas of the forest remains as compared to a province with strong<br />

development where forest has been converted. An analysis that considers the full suite of drivers for<br />

deforestation requires a wide range of related primary, secondary <strong>and</strong> proxy data. Collecting, collating<br />

<strong>and</strong> verifying data to predict the deforestation pattern is a key task in modelling a REL.<br />

A REL for the <strong>KFCP</strong> demonstration activity<br />

There is not yet any internationally agreed guidance on developing REDD RELs. The process for this<br />

will be subject to negotiation among Parties. Whichever approach is negotiated, a credible REL of<br />

emissions from REDD should be established for the <strong>KFCP</strong> using existing scientific <strong>and</strong> technical<br />

tools <strong>and</strong> models. Both approaches will need to be developed for the demonstration activity in order to<br />

inform international negotiations <strong>and</strong> enable Indonesia to consider options <strong>and</strong> approaches to national<br />

REL preparation that most suitably reflect national circumstances.<br />

Assessment <strong>and</strong> monitoring will be required at a range of scales as part of the <strong>KFCP</strong>. Crediting may<br />

be based on local or project level activities in the context of a broader national approach while<br />

accountability for leakage could lie with national governments or potentially with provincial<br />

authorities. Project level RELs <strong>and</strong> monitoring will support assessments of changes to local carbon<br />

stocks <strong>and</strong> emissions for the purpose of carbon crediting. The capacity to monitor forest cover <strong>and</strong><br />

factors relating to emissions will support the assessment of permanence. National assessments, a<br />

national carbon accounting system, will identify leakage by wall-to-wall coverage that will monitor<br />

all relevant l<strong>and</strong>s for change. The <strong>KFCP</strong> will need to be designed in a way to complement <strong>and</strong><br />

integrate with this national system as it is developed.<br />

Monitoring against a REL<br />

REDD demonstration activities require a credible reduction in emissions from deforestation <strong>and</strong><br />

degradation to be measured against the REL at specific intervals, for example annually. The<br />

monitoring will confirm the effect of REDD activities, management change <strong>and</strong> policies variation in<br />

terms of reduced emissions against the REL. In a fully developed REDD project, this should include<br />

monitoring of the displacement of deforestation <strong>and</strong> degradation from one area to another, the<br />

―leakage‖. Emission reductions identified compared to the REL may then be made available as carbon<br />

credits.<br />

For the <strong>KFCP</strong>, the two key parameters to be monitored are:<br />

1. Change in forest cover which includes change in forest area <strong>and</strong> reduction in forest cover; <strong>and</strong><br />

2. Change in carbon stocks <strong>and</strong> emissions of non-CO 2 gases.<br />

Remote sensing provides a strong approach to monitoring forest cover change that is constantly<br />

evolving, considering new data sets <strong>and</strong> refining approaches. Indonesia is currently considering a<br />

system, guidelines, <strong>and</strong> protocols for measurement <strong>and</strong> processes for preparing a national carbon<br />

accounting system. This demonstration of REDD under the <strong>KFCP</strong> will identify the underpinning<br />

science, data collection methodologies <strong>and</strong> approach for applying a national REL at the<br />

demonstration, provincial <strong>and</strong> national scale to assess emissions over time <strong>and</strong> inform knowledge<br />

around the issues <strong>and</strong> problems of reporting the carbon account from local to national levels. While<br />

detailed data collection will focus primarily on the specific locations selected for the <strong>KFCP</strong><br />

demonstration activity area, the methodologies developed would have broader benefits for Indonesia‘s<br />

FRIS <strong>and</strong> assessment of tropical peat carbon stocks <strong>and</strong> flows internationally.<br />

6-2 KALIMANTAN FORESTS AND CLIMATE PARTNERSHIP (<strong>KFCP</strong>) DESIGN DOCUMENT

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