200 - Typhoon Committee

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ESCAP/WMO Typhoon Committee Annual Review 2007 the NWS products, operations, training, and science, but will be able to develop their own effective outreach and preparedness programs using their own languages. Ms. Chin completed several weeks of training on all WFO Guam programs including satellite analysis, Micronesia climatology, and marine forecasting, and spent several hours on outreach materials associated with the annual tropical cyclone disaster preparedness training. She also networked with officials from the University of Guam Water and Environmental Research Institute, Pacific ENSO Applications Center and PEACESAT, a satellitebased distance education program located at the University of Guam and the University of Hawaii with nodes scattered throughout the North and South Pacific. • Marine Patrol Training. Over 30 officers from the Guam Police Department received basic weather training from WFO Guam as part of their recruitment to the Marine Patrol Division. In addition to learning basic water safety, the officers rely on the National Weather Service for sea and surf training and basic weather understanding. The visits are normally 2 hours long. On one such visit in July, officers were able to watch the staff in action during real-time tropical cyclone operations as Tropical Storm Man-Yi moved through the region. NTR d. Training Progress. NTR. e. Research Progress. NTR. f. Other Cooperative/RCPIP Progress. NTR. 3. Opportunities for Further Enhancement of Regional Cooperation (including identification of other meteorological-related topics and opportunities, possible further exchange of information and priority needs for assistance). II.Regional Specialized Meteorological Centre (RSMC) Honolulu / Weather Forecast Office (WFO) Honolulu B. Meteorology 1. Progress in Member’s Regional Cooperation and Selected RCPIP Goals and Objectives: e. Research Progress NTR f. Other Cooperative/RCPIP Progress. NTR 2. Progress in Member’s Important, High-Priority Goals and Objectives (towards the goals and objectives of the Typhoon Committee). a. Hardware Progress. and/or Software NTR. b. Implications Progress. to Operational NTR. c. Interaction with users, other Members, and/or other components. NTR a. Hardware and/or Software Progress. • Interactive Forecast Preparation System (IFPS) and the Graphical Forecast Editor (GFE). This is the main forecast system in the U.S. NOAA National Weather Service which produces the forecast by first having the meteorologists prepare a set of gridded data for all elements of the forecast and then use automatic formatters to take these gridded data to generate a worded forecast. The meteorologists have new tools to edit the digital forecast database in this system, which can import the tropical cyclone maximum sustained wind and wind radii from RSMC Honolulu’s tropical cyclone track and intensity forecast and apply them to the local domain of gridded data which has a resolution of 2.5 km. Forecasters can apply an appropriate eye diameter for the tropical cyclone, and a wind speed reduction factor over land. This provides higher resolution spatial and temporal weather information to local disaster preparedness personnel. 96
TCAR CHAPTER 1 - TYPHOON COMMITTEE ACTIVITIES 2007 2007 • High Resolution Weather and Research Forecasting (WRF) Model - Nonhydrostatic Mesoscale Model (NMM) data. RSMC Honolulu began ingesting high resolution WRF-NMM data from the University of Hawaii Mesoscale Modeling Group into the Interactive Forecast Preparation System approximately 20 July 2007. The model is comprised of several different domains, with a maximum spatial resolution of 3 km over Maui and the Big Island of Hawaii, and 1.5 km over Kauai and Oahu. The model will provide forecasters with high resolution wind fields over the islands and provide insight into meso beta and gamma-scale terrain-forced local wind effects. • Hurricane WRF. Forecasters at RSMC Honolulu began utilizing and evaluating the new Hurricane WRF model provided by the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) during the 2007 tropical cyclone season. The Hurricane WRF is eventually expected to replace the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL) model. • Probabilistic Wind Guidance. RSMC Honolulu began generating graphical and text products of probabilistic guidance of 34, 50, and 64 knot winds for discrete and cumulative time periods from 0-120 hours in 2006. However, there were no significant land-based threats to Hawaii in 2006. With the approach of Hurricane Flossie, this was the first opportunity that land-based users had to evaluate the guidance during a significant threat to the Hawaiian Islands. • Graphical Watches and Warnings. RSMC Honolulu implemented graphical depiction of tropical cyclone watches and warnings on the RSMC Honolulu webpage. This is in addition to graphical depiction of tropical cyclone track forecasts, both deterministic and probabilistic. • Targeted Email Notification. RSMC Honolulu began targeted email service (listserv) to those key customers requesting delivery of RSMC Honolulu products via email. Approximately 1000 customers signed up for the service for Hurricane Flossie. b. Implications to Operational Progress. • Hurricane Flossie. Hurricane Flossie entered the Central Pacific on 11 August as a major hurricane, and was the first serious threat to the Hawaiian Islands in several years. Many significant advances have taken place in tropical cyclone detection and forecasting since the last major hurricane threatened Hawaii, and Hurricane Flossie allowed RSMC Honolulu Hurricane Specialists to evaluate many of them. The ability to use the Interactive Forecast Preparation System (IFPS) and the Graphical Forecast Editor (GFE) to both ingest RSMC Honolulu wind fields and manipulate those fields to represent localized topographic effects both on land and in the nearby channels gave the Weather Forecast Office (WFO) Honolulu forecasters the ability to add mesoscale details to the wind forecasts of far greater detail than in the past. Probabilistic wind guidance gave users the ability to judge the threat to their respective interests quantitatively for each wind field (34, 50, and 64 knots). The Director of RSMC Honolulu requested deployment of the Hurricane Hunters (4 C-130s), which flew numerous critical missions into the cyclone until the threat passed. Intensity estimates from both manual and automated Dvorak techniques were compared with reconnaissance data, and were shown to be very accurate. Along with the reconnaissance data, remotely sensed wind fields from the QuikSCAT and ASCAT satellite microwave sensors provided valuable information on the aerial extent of critical wind speeds. Additional microwave imagery from polar orbiting satellites, such as the 85 GHz and 37 GHz channels, provided valuable information to RSMC Honolulu Hurricane Specialists on storm structure. Wind shear analysis through the University of Wisconsin Cooperative Institute for Meteorological Satellite Studies (CIMSS) was ported directly to RSMC Honolulu, and used by Hurricane Specialists for both intensity and track forecasts. c. Interaction with users, other Members, and/or other components. • IWTC VI. The RSMC Honolulu Deputy Director participated in the WMO International Workshop on Tropical Cyclones held in San Jose Costa Rica 21-30 November, 2006. d. Training Progress • International Pacific Desk Training Internship. The WMO Regional Association (RA) V Pacific 97
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TCAR CHAPTER 1 - TYPHOON COMMITTEE
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TCAR APPENDIX I - TROPICAL CYCLONES
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