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Step Five: Determine if Causes Are Sufficient and Necessary
is exacerbated when those writing the stories use correlations to convey
the message.
Baloney Detection Kit
In 1997, Carl Sagan wrote about ways to separate “fact” from fiction
or, more specifically, science from pseudoscience in his book, The Demon
Haunted World: Science as a Candle in the Dark. 2 The following is based on
that work and correlates it to what we have learned so far in this book.
1. Seek independent facts. Remember, a fact is a cause supported
by sensed evidence and should be independently verified by you
before it can be deemed legitimate. If you cannot find sensed
evidence of causal relationships you should be skeptical.
2. Welcome open debate on all points of view. Suspend
judgment about the event or claim until all cause paths have
been pursued to your satisfaction using RealityCharting®.
3. Always challenge authority. Ask to be educated. Ask the expert
how they came to know what they know. If they cannot explain
it to your satisfaction using evidence-based causal relationships
then be very skeptical.
4. Consider more than one hypothesis. The difference between
a genius and a normal person is that when asked to solve a
problem the genius doesn’t look for the right answer, he or she
looks for how many possible solutions he or she can find. A
genius fundamentally understands that there is always another
possibility, limited by our fundamental ignorance of what is
really happening.
5. Don’t defend a position because it is yours. All ideas are
prototypical because there is no way we can really know all the
causes. Seek to understand before seeking to be understood.
6. Try to quantify what you think you know. Can you put
numbers to it
7. If there is a chain of causes presented, every link must work.
Use RealityCharting® to verify that the chain of causes meets the
advanced logic checks defined above and that the causes are
sufficient in and of themselves.
8. Use Occam’s razor to decide between two hypothesis; If two
explanations appear to be equally viable, choose the simpler one
if you must. Nature loves simplicity.
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