PLENTIFUL ENERGY

But the principal line of development is the PWR followed by the Fast Breeder
Reactor for long term fuel economy. Three steps are planned: the China
Experimental Fast Reactor (CEFR) at 25 MWe, UO 2 and mixed Pu-UO 2 fueled; the
China Prototype Fast Reactor (CPFR) at 800 MWe, mixed Pu-UO 2 and metalfueled,
and the CDFR at 1000 to 1500 MWe, metal-fueled for the highest
production of plutonium fuel. The intent is to expand the system as rapidly as
possible. For the fast reactor, the self-contained, integral (IFR) fuel cycle is
planned.
The rapid increase in PWR capacity will, however, stress the world‘s uranium
markets. There, as with oil, gas and coal, China will play an increasingly dominant
role.
4.7 The Energy Picture in Total
Soon the world‘s energy needs will no longer be dominated by the western
world. By 2030 China will have passed the U.S. in energy consumption. Oil
production at best will have long since reached a plateau. Severe competition for
imports of oil can be expected, as the two biggest users of oil are the two biggest
importers and the two most powerful nations on earth.
Electricity growth will be very robust; electricity will near 50 % of total primary
energy usage. Nuclear is assigned only a small part in most prognostications, nontrivial,
but small and constant. But note carefully: for these predictions to be
explainable, all growth had to be assigned to coal and natural gas.
The scenarios foreseen by a number of knowledgeable institutions and observers
regarding peak production rates are quite similar. There is disagreement on the
dates of the various peaks, but with a surprising degree of agreement considering
the disparate interests of those involved. The graph below shows the main points. It
is taken from the Association for the Study of Peak Oil (ASPO) 2006 Base Case
Scenario. [13-14] Here they show that global production of conventional oil peaked
in 2006, while all liquids (including non-conventional oil) and natural gas combined
will peak in approximately 2010.
The combined peak of oil and gas will probably determine the peak—at least the
first peak—in total world energy production and consumption. A similar coal
analysis suggests that the global coal peak will occur around a decade after the
petroleum/gas peak, so there will be a ten-year interval, starting around 2010, of
relatively slow fall-off in total energy from fossil fuels, followed by a gradually
accelerating decline.
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