PLENTIFUL ENERGY

e generally held, even as facts increasingly contradict it. The facts today lead
directly to a contrary and very simple conclusion. If we are to maintain our present
prosperous manner of life, large amounts of nuclear-generated electricity will be
essential. There is no other non-fossil source with the necessary magnitude. And
this need is not far off. The outlook for fossil fuel sustainability is worse than
commonly thought.
Conventional oil production, the free-flowing crude oil that is easy and cheap to
recover, is approaching its peak worldwide. It will soon begin a long decline, if, in
fact, it hasn‘t already. Debate continues about the details of the precise timing of the
peak, and its shape, but the petroleum geologists and others who have insisted that
such a production peak is coming soon and may already have occurred are now
being joined by increasing numbers of prominent figures inside and outside the oil
business.
The National Petroleum Council, the Advisory Body to the Secretary of Energy,
in 2007 issued a report on America‘s oil and gas position to the year 2030. [2] The
membership of the Committee included the CEOs of several of the major
international oil companies and informed observers and analysts expert in oil
matters. Significantly, the effort was chaired by Lee Raymond, the long-time CEO
of ExxonMobil, and the architect of the Exxon-Mobil merger, a man noted for hardheaded
practicality. The report was carefully worded. While stopping just short of
an outright endorsement of the imminence of the Peak Oil picture, it states that ―the
capacity of the oil resource base to sustain growing production is uncertain,‖ that
―accumulating risks‖ threaten ―continued expansion‖ of oil and gas from
conventional sources, and that ―several outlooks indicate that increasing oil
production may become a significant challenge as early as 2015.‖ Importantly, the
uncertainty is stated to be based on the rate and timing at which ―significant
quantities of unconventional oil enter the supply mix,‖ and the industry‘s ability to
overcome increasing risks to supply. Thus non-conventional sources are looked to,
not the free-flowing oil of the present, for the necessary increases in total liquids,
and even then trouble may come by 2015.
The National Petroleum Council report in a sense led the way. Its authoritative
membership gave credence to the repeated statements of geologists who for some
years had warned of the approaching crisis of oil production reaching its peak.
Today it‘s almost common wisdom. There is a rising chorus from every corner of
the energy business stressing the need to face the implications of the imminence of
peak oil. The International Energy Agency's World Energy Outlook [3] makes the
point that the era of cheap oil has now passed and the IEA's chief economist, Fatih
Birol, has recently stated repeatedly that ―the age of cheap oil is over.‖ [4]
Saudi Arabia is considered by all to be the key to the future of world oil
production. It has the greatest daily production, varying somewhat with demand,
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