PLENTIFUL ENERGY

cf per day from Canada via pipelines. Thus we are about 98.5% self-reliant on
natural gas supply from North America and about 86% self-reliant on natural gas
supply from the U.S. Contrast that with oil, where we are much less self-reliant;
only about 41% North American self-reliant and only about 27% self-reliant from
U.S. sources. [2]
This picture of a large supply of natural gas has been strengthened by the
increase in production from a number of the gas shale fields, at the same time that
the recession (and global financial crisis) hit; as a result, there has been more gas
available than needed, and the price has therefore dropped considerably. This, in
turn, has led to a considerable reduction in the number of rigs that have been
drilling new wells. Even with this, however, there are concerns about the ability of
wells in the gas shale to produce to the targets that are being set up. For instance,
the very high costs for the wells and technology required to create them has meant
that, as a result of having relatively short lives, only 28% of them have returned a
reasonable profit. The subject remains controversial. Some see shale gas allowing
substantial increases in domestic gas production; others argue, based on the rapid
declines found after initial well production, that the present enthusiasm for the
prospects of shale gas is overblown. [2]
Gas production is thought to be sufficient to postpone the peak in total
hydrocarbons for spans of time anywhere from a year or two up to a decade or two.
But gas is not a direct substitute for oil and it is simply not plentiful enough to
replace declining oil production for long, even where it can substitute for oil.
The outlook for coal is the cloudiest of all. Coal, particularly in America where
large deposits exist, has for many years been cited as the ultimate fuel of last resort.
Estimates of coal lasting from two hundred fifty to four hundred years ―at present
production rates‖ have been, and still are, common. And coal has been described as
plentiful globally as well. The biggest deposits are in the U.S., China, Russia, and
Australia; coal is by no means uniformly distributed globally. China is using rapidly
increasing amounts of coal, to the point where their reserves will soon be strained.
Indeed, despite being the world‘s largest coal producer, China is now a net coal
importer. The U.S. has already mined much of its more easily recoverable
anthracite and even the bituminous coal of Illinois. The softer lignite coals of
Wyoming and Montana, of lower heat content, require strip mining on an ever
increasing scale. Coal, for this reason, and for the carbon dioxide generated when it
is burned, is of environmental concern. The principal point about coal, however, is
that the amount of coal actually recoverable is very poorly defined. The coal
resource itself is poorly defined: many of the current numbers date back to 1970s
when the first global estimates were made. And the resource numbers, even if they
were accurate, are deceiving in their estimates of the amount that can actually be
mined economically. For a variety of fairly obvious reasons, the coal that can be
recovered is only a fraction of the resource in the ground. The current guesses are
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