Economic crime report 2004 - Ekobrottsmyndigheten

that a certain volume of uncollected revenues, including evasion, must be
accepted in a democracy with a tax system based on information provided
by citizens themselves. The amount of uncollected revenue and evasion
that can be tolerated is a purely political issue in which both financial and
non-financial factors must be considered.
In its estimate of uncollected revenues, SKV combined macroeconomic
calculations with the results of its own checks, mostly random.
The uncollected revenues that can be detected by audits or other in-depth
checks were estimated at SEK 40 billion. That part of the estimate was
essentially based on scrupulous earlier checks of a wholly random selection,
the results of which were extrapolated to the national level. Since
the biggest business Groups are fully reviewed within the framework of
planned, coordinated audits, the figures for them are 10-year averages.
Thus, the uncollected revenues that can be identified by checking, as well
as those that escape detection in the form of unreported income or other
benefits to private individuals, will be included in the statistics on which
macroeconomic calculations of the undeclared sector are based. The
adjusting entry reflects that dynamic, as well as periodization errors.
In conclusion, it should be kept in mind that the calculation does not cover
all taxes, all taxpayers or outright fraud directed at SKV involving VAT
and the like. Nor are cases included in which taxpayers declare income but
evade payment by making their assets inaccessible to collection.
As the general economy grows, new data emerges that can help fill in the
blanks. SKV’s updated 2000 calculation proceeded from the National
Accounts estimate that the undeclared sector represented over 4% of the
GDP. In addition, the GDP increase provided a somewhat more reliable
basis for estimating uncollected revenues on assets invested abroad that
are subject to taxation. The calculation implies that SKV’s current auditing
procedures have the ability to detect less than 50% of total uncollected
revenues.
The calculation for 2000 puts uncollected revenues at almost SEK 90
billion. According to the adjusted calculation, that represents more than
4% of the GDP and approximately 8% of total tax revenues. That is
somewhat lower than the 1997 calculation, which nevertheless did not
explicitly include investments abroad. A large percentage of estimated
uncollected revenues are attributable to the undeclared sector, which SKV
deemed in 1997 to be 5% of the GDP on the basis of previous assessments.
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