Economic crime report 2004 - Ekobrottsmyndigheten

A conservative estimate for 2002 would put the figure at 4.5%, or over
SEK 100 billion.
The National Accounts periodically undergo retroactive revisions. For
2000, uncollected revenues stemming from undeclared work are estimated
at SEK 56 billion. According to current National Accounts data,
the undeclared sector represented approximately 5% of the GDP in
1988-2000. The conservative 4.5% estimate for 2002 yields an undeclared
sector of SEK 105 billion and – based on the previous assumptions
– uncollected revenues of some SEK 70 billion stemming from undeclared
work. See Table 2.
Table 2
Schematic calculation of the total amount of tax error in 1997 and an updated
calculation for 2000, SEK billion
Tax error, SEK billion National Updated Share of
Tax Board calculation total taxerror
1997 2000 1999
Income tax, VAT and social
security contributions 60.4 56 64%
Tax on capital investments abroad ? 7.5 9%
Audit results – primarily non-deductible
costs and different forms of wrong accounts
and wrong tax calculation
Random audits of ordinary taxpayers and companies,
except the biggest groups of companies 20.8 25.3 ?
Coordinated audits of the biggest
groups of companies 20 16 ?
Selective purchase taxes on
alcohol, tobacco, oil, etc. 3.0 3.4 4%
Loss of VAT through electronic
trade on the Internet ,, 0.5 0.60%
Plain fraud against the tax administration,
e.g., claiming VAT repayments ,, ,,
Total tax error, SEK billion 83.8 88 100%
Total tax error as a percentage of GDP
(SEK 1 800 billion in 1997 and
SEK 2 083 billion in 2000) 4.7% 4.2%
Total tax error as a percentage of taxes
in the public sector (SEK 950 billion in 1997
and SEK 1 100 billion in 2000) 8.8% 8.0%
On behalf of the Tax Base Inquiry, SKV estimated uncollected revenues
linked to international transactions at SEK 20-30 billion, as broken down
in Table 3.
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