Lunenburg Part 2 - Section 5 - Social Vulnerability - August 30.pdf

Executive Summary
Researchers have observed that throughout both the developing and developed world the
impacts of natural hazards are unequal: the most severe consequences are on underprivileged
people and areas. This observation has led to the study of social vulnerability to climate
change.
An important component of research on social vulnerability to climate change is the
development of methods for measuring the geographic distribution of social vulnerability,
through the use of an index. An index of social vulnerability measures the prevalence of various
indicators of social vulnerability in different geographic areas. The purpose of such an index is
to identify the most socially vulnerable areas so that efforts related to adaptation, emergency
management, and disaster relief may be directed to those areas. Areas of greater social
vulnerability will experience more severe consequences from a natural hazard than those of
lesser socially vulnerability even if they have the same physical exposure.
The purpose of this study was to evaluate social vulnerability to climate change impacts in the
Municipality of the District of Lunenburg, Nova Scotia. The study assesses the prevalence of
characteristics that contribute to the social vulnerability of individuals and households, using
data aggregated at the Statistics Canada dissemination area level. It generates an index of
social vulnerability that can also have for application in Nova Scotia, generally, and proceeds to
map the index to visually represent the distribution of residential areas and populations in the
District with high levels of social vulnerability. This assessment will allow the District of
Lunenburg to identify areas most at need of assistance, particularly in focusing adaptation and
emergency management planning on high-risk populations and areas. It will also serve as an
example for other Nova Scotia municipalities.
This study used a mixed methods approach: an index of social vulnerability that measures data
from statistical sources, and consultations with persons possessing local knowledge relevant to
issues of social vulnerability, to provide context for the index results and offer additional local
detail.
The indicators selected for use in the index of social vulnerability are based on the Canadian
Social Determinants of Health. Indicators chosen include: low income; government transfer
payments; unemployment; children; seniors; seniors living alone; lone parent families; no
secondary education; no knowledge of English or French; recent immigrants; visible minorities;
and Aboriginal identity. The report includes a full explanation of the reasons for the inclusion of
each factor, and the exclusion of other factors relevant to social vulnerability.
All statistical data are sourced from the 2006 Census of Canada. The unit of analysis is the
dissemination area – the smallest scale at which Census data is available. The prevalence of
each indicator of social vulnerability, in each dissemination area, is measured in comparison to
the average for all dissemination areas in Nova Scotia. The unit of measurement is the standard
deviation of results in Nova Scotia for that indicator. Scores are assigned categories of low to
high vulnerability, colour-coded, and mapped using Esri ArcGIS v. 10 Geographic Information
System software. This method closely resembles that of Dr. Susan Cutter, a prominent
researcher of social vulnerability to climate change.
In order to estimate the possible impacts of storm surge on socially vulnerable populations in the
Municipality, and specifically in the coastal regions, storm surge scenarios generated in a
companion ACAS project were overlaid with the mapped results of the index of social
vulnerability. The most severe storm surge scenario is based on the storm surge generated by
Hurricane Juan in 2003, which caused serious damage along the Atlantic coast.
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