Proceedings of the Workshop - United Nations Office for Outer ...

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48low earth orbit. This commercial part of the marketencourages us to look at launch services not any moreat the national or regional level but also at the globallevel.On the other hand the global launch services are notdriven by the free market but rather by a series of rulesoften associated to national security and nationalinterest. As a matter of fact, the weight of governmentsis still heavy in this sector of activities both becausegovernments are still investing largely in developmentof launch vehicles and because they are a majorcustomer for launch services.The situation worldwide is therefore complex andthe author has attempted to analyze a complicated,sometime contradictory and constantly evolvinglandscape. The paper is well documented and tries to beexhaustive even though some aspects are missing, suchas the role of insurance and the role of therestructuration of industry leading to "vertical" giantsable to sell at the same time launch services, satellitesand services associated to satellites. These aspects canbe additional obstacles. Japan is also surprisinglyabsent in the paper, while it is already a significantplayer and partner in the field of launchers.Based on these considerations I would like to makethe following general comments:1. It is not easy to draw a line between launchers andother space related activities since:• launchers on the one hand constitute a worldapart in space activity, not only because of thehigh level of technical expertise needed todesign and to operate these vehicles but alsoeven more because of the special link existingbetween the launcher technology and themissile technology which makes them a verysensitive and highly confidential subject,• and on the other hand launchers also form anintegral part of space activities where mostdebates regarding national security versus freemarket are the same for launchers, satellitesand associated services. For instance, as it wasalready underlined by the author in his paper,EXPANDING GLOBAL LAUNCH SERVICESthe recent US export control measures concernnot only launchers but also satellites.2. The line between governmental and commerciallaunch activities, as referred to bv the author in hispaper, is not easy to define since:• the commercial success of a launcher alleviatesthe burden of governments in maintaining anindustrial and operational capability able toguarantee a continuous and reliable access tospace (this is for instance the case for Ariane);• reciprocally a governmental market which is acaptive market, at least in the United States,certainly supports the commercial success of alauncher;• more generally most of the space technologyapplications are of dual (civil/military) use, liketelecommunications, earth observation andnavigation.It is therefore very difficult to distinguish thedriving forces of the governmental and those of the nongovernmental/commercialactivities, especially since,despite the expansion of the commercial market, thegovernmental market still remains of the same order ofmagnitude as the one for the commercial market. Thatis why the role of governments in the field of launchersis still very important and will probably remain so inthe foreseeable future.3. This is why the "national security aspects" andthe "export control restrictions" applied forexample by the US administration are both thesame aspect of an overall US policy, namely theUS leadership in space activities, obviouslyincluding launch services.But protectionism has its limitations and can bedetrimental to industrial interests and competitivenessand therefore, the US policy encouraged the USindustry to become a launch operator of Russian orUkrainian launchers. This is the only slight differencebetween the governmental and the commercial marketin the US: the governmental market is reserved for the
EXPANDING GLOBAL LAUNCH SERVICES 49US launchers and the commercial market is orientedtowards the US operators.Therefore I would like to express my reservationregarding the comparison made bv the author betweenthe US policy regarding the launch of US governmentsatellites exclusively on US manufactured launchvehicles which has been made compulsory throughvarious legislative acts, and the European policyregarding the preferential use of the Ariane launchvehicle as stated in Article VIII of the ESA Conventionand in the Ariane Production Declaration, which is notcompulsory and which leaves the door open to otherchoices. As a matter of fact between the period 1981 -2008,75 European governmental missions have been orwill be launched by Ariane and 20 Europeangovernmental missions have been or will be launched byanother launcher than Ariane which represents apercentage of almost 30 % of the total 95 Europeangovernmental missions launched or to be launchedbetween 1981 and 2008. As stated by the author, "bycontrast, the US government agencies have so far feltobliged, by law and policy to use domestic launchvehicles and launch providers and have actedaccordingly".The restrictive US policy in the field of launchersis based on national security reasons regarding Chinawith the "China Affair" and is based on US leadershipconsiderations with respect to Europe.4. So after having made these remarks, I would askwhat is the future of global launch services industryand the possible involvement of internationalorganizations and institutions?In the immediate future and considering theimportance of the government involvement in the globallaunch services, I would think that only concertedactions between the governments and industrialoperators might be the way to alleviate the heavyconsequences of this domination by governments on thefree market. A good example of this type of action isthe very recent (June 1999) lobbying by Arianespaceand the ESA Member States in the United States within particular the release to the US press of a "whitepaper" issued by Arianespace, entitled "EuropeanSatellite Services and the US Export controls", whichreacts to the recent changes in the US Export Controlregime resulting from the so called "China Affair" andwhich might in its view affect the normal interactionbetween launch providers and satellite builders.Meanwhile I share the view of the author regardingthe proposal to start a dialogue within the frame of UNCOPUOUS involving in particular the industries andorganizations engaged in private, commercial spaceactivities, with the purpose of reviewing and analyzingthe way in which the present regulatory regime affectstheir present and future operations. This type of forumwould certainly contribute to improve the mutualunderstanding of the new requirements of the globallaunch services and their potential consequences for allcountries looking for taking benefit of the application ofspace technologies.However it is only when the commercial marketwill have become significantly larger than, thegovernmental market, that global launch services havea chance to reasonably evolve towards a free market.This important expansion of the commercial market iscertainly linked to a dramatic reduction of launch costs,and therefore probably to the existence of anoperational reusable launch vehicle. The developmentof such a vehicle relies itself on significanttechnological progress and therefore on heavyinvestments coming from governments themselves.This might not happen in the near future but whenthis will occur then the questions of internationalcooperation and of safety in space referred to by theauthor in his conclusion, will certainly become crucialand meanwhile the possible debate within aninternational forum would certainly have proven useful.
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SESSION EIGHTMaintaining the Space
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