131 LA UR 03 5862 - National Nuclear Security Administration ...

4.0 Trend AnalysisBeginning in 1999 the Yearbook included a new chapter that examined trends by comparing actual LANLoperating conditions to SWEIS ROD projections. Where the 1999 Yearbook was restricted to waste data,subsequent Yearbooks also included land use and utilities information. Additional information has been addedin this edition of the Yearbook so that SWEIS ROD projections can be applied to a wider range of data. Manyof these comparisons are qualitative due to the nature of the data collected. The purpose of these additionalcomparisons is to allow a more comprehensive review of the SWEIS projections compared to actual LANLoperating parameters over the years in which data were available, usually about five years.In preparing this chapter, it became obvious that not all data collected lend themselves to this type ofanalysis. First, some data consist mostly of estimates (i.e., historical NPDES outfall flows) where variationsbetween years may be nothing more than an artifact of the methodology used to make estimates. These datadid not depict environmental risk, and any evaluation between years would be meaningless. Second, somedata were so far below SWEIS ROD projections (i.e., air quality and high explosive production), that evensignificant increases in measured quantities would not cause LANL to exceed the risks evaluated in theSWEIS, and such a comparison would have served no practical purpose for the development of a SWEIS inthe future. Finally, some data did not represent site impacts, were inherently variable, and did not representutilization of onsite natural resources (i.e., ER Project exhumed material shipped offsite).The data conducive to numerical analysis represent real numbers of two distinct types. First, data thatdemonstrate cumulative effects across years where summed quantities could approach or exceed SWEIS RODprojections or regulatory limits or create negative environmental impacts (e.g., waste disposed at LANL).Or, second, data that represent, on an annual basis, measured quantities that approach limits established byagreement and/or regulation (i.e., gas, electric, and water consumption). Specific factors that influenced thenumerical values are found in previous Yearbooks and in Chapter 3 of this Yearbook. Where quantitativecomparisons are not appropriate, this chapter attempts to summarize the relationship of LANL’s operations tothe SWEIS projections qualitatively.4.1 Air EmissionsAir emissions continue to be within regulatory limits. LANL continues to be in compliance with air qualitystandards and the region continues to be an attainment area for air quality under the Clean Air Act.4.1.1 Radioactive Air EmissionsThe SWEIS projected annual radioactive stack emissions for LANL at 21,700 curies per year. Since 1998LANL’s radioactive stack emissions have not exceeded 15,400 curies in a single year (see Table 3.1.1-1).LANSCE, the largest contributor to LANL radioactive stack emissions, has consistently emitted fewer curiesof radioactive material than was projected by the SWEIS. Consequently LANL is still operating within theparameters that the SWEIS analyzed (Figure 4-1). This is likely due to the conservative nature of the SWEISprojections and to a lower level of operations than was considered in the SWEIS.Tritium emissions are the largest contributor to LANL’s overall radioactive emissions (see Table 3.1.1-1).Tritium emissions from Key Facilities have, with one exception (2001), also been within the projections ofthe SWEIS. The single exception was a one-time release of 7,600 curies. The effect of this single release hasbeen to raise the average annual emissions of tritium to about 25 percent above the SWEIS projections. If thissingle event is deducted from the tritium emissions for 2001, tritium emissions from Key Facilities are lessthan half what the SWEIS projected (Figure 4-2). The SWEIS parameter for tritium emissions from the Non-Key Facilities is 910 curies per year based on the index year of 1994 (SWEIS Table 3.6.1-31). The averageannual emissions of tritium from Non-Key Facilities has exceeded that value slightly in three of the fourSWEIS Yearbook—2002 4-1