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The U.S. Climate Change Science Program Chapter 3 100
CHAPTER 4 KEY FINDINGS Decision-Support Experiments and Evaluations using Seasonal to Interannual Forecasts and Observational Data: A Focus on Water Resources Making Decision-Support Information Useful, Useable, and Responsive to Decision-Maker Needs Convening Lead Authors: David L. Feldman, Univ. of California, Irvine; Katharine L. Jacobs, Arizona Water Institute Lead Authors: Gregg Garfin, Univ. of Arizona; Aris Georgakakos, Georgia Inst. of Tech.; Barbara Morehouse, Univ. of Arizona; Pedro Restrepo, NOAA; Robin Webb, NOAA; Brent Yarnal, Penn. State Univ. Contributing Authors: Dan Basketfield, Silverado Gold Mines Inc.; Holly Hartmann, Univ. of Arizona; John Kochendorfer, Riverside Technology, Inc.; Cynthia Rosenzweig, NASA; Michael Sale, ORNL; Brad Udall, NOAA; Connie Woodhouse, Univ. of Arizona Decision-support experiments that apply seasonal and interannual climate variability information to basin and regional water resource problems serve as test beds that address diverse issues faced by decision makers and scientists. They illustrate how to identify user needs, overcome communication barriers, and operationalize forecast tools. They also demonstrate how user participation can be incorporated into tool development. Five major lessons emerge from these experiments and supporting analytical studies: • The effective integration of seasonal-to-interannual climate information in decisions requires long-term collaborative research and application of decision support through identifying problems of mutual interest. This collaboration will require a critical mass of scientists and decision makers to succeed and there is currently an insufficient number of “integrators” of climate information for specific applications. • Investments in long-term research-based relationships between scientists and decision makers must be adequately funded and supported. In general, progress on developing effective decision-support systems is dependent on additional public and private resources to facilitate better networking among decision makers and scientists at all levels as well as public engagement in the fabric of decision making. • Effective decision-support tools must integrate national production of data and technologies to ensure efficient, cross-sector usefulness with customized products for local users. This requires that tool developers engage a wide range of participants, including those who generate tools and those who translate them, to ensure that specially-tailored products are widely accessible and are immediately adopted by users insuring relevancy and utility. • The process of tool development must be inclusive, interdisciplinary, and provide ample dialogue among researchers and users. To achieve this inclusive process, professional reward systems that recognize people who develop, use and translate such systems for use by others are needed within water management and related agencies, universities and organizations. Critical to this effort, further progress is needed in boundary spanning—the effort to translate tools to a variety of audiences across institutional boundaries. • Information generated by decision-support tools must be implementable in the short term for users to foresee progress and support further tool development. Thus, efforts must be made to effectively integrate public concerns and elicit public information through dedicated outreach programs. 101
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Decision-Support Experiments and Ev
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TABLE OF CONTENTS Abstract ........
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TABLE OF CONTENTS 5................
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ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS The authors would
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ABSTRACT Faced with mounting pressu
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PREFACE Report Motivation and Guida
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EXECUTIVE SUMMARY ES.1 WHAT IS DECI
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• Improved bias corrections in ex
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• • ness with customized produc
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CHAPTER 1 1.1 INTRODUCTION Increasi
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western United States and is the ba
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Study or Experiment Chapter CPC Sea
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Study or Experiment Chapter Interpr
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Study or Experiment Chapter Integra
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Study or Experiment Chapter Regiona
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Study or Experiment Chapter Murray-
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Study or Experiment Chapter Integra
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Study or Experiment Chapter Regiona
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Study or Experiment Chapter Murray-
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CHAPTER 2 KEY FINDINGS Decision-Sup
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2.1 INTRODUCTION In the past, water
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data and forecast products that sup
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BOX 2.2: Forecast Approaches Decisi
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cal elements, including models, dat
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a sub-seasonal lead time, the singl
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The hydrologic and water resources
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forecasts link to CPC drought produ
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losses of snowpack and the tendenci
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At NCEP, the dynamical tool, CFS, i
Page 65 and 66: Decision-Support Experiments and Ev
Page 67 and 68: 2.4.1 Improving Seasonal-to- Intera
Page 69 and 70: climate variations. The rationale f
Page 71 and 72: 2.4.2.2 improvementS in hydrologic
Page 73 and 74: BOX 2.3: The CPC Seasonal Drought O
Page 75 and 76: Koch’s research to operational pr
Page 77 and 78: BOX 2.4: What Role Can a "Testbed"
Page 79 and 80: satisfy all users. The Advanced Hyd
Page 81 and 82: CHAPTER 3 KEY FINDINGS Decision-Sup
Page 83 and 84: discuss impediments to forecast inf
Page 85 and 86: Commission (SRBC) to pave the way f
Page 87 and 88: BOX 3.1: Georgia Drought Decision-S
Page 89 and 90: Figure 3.1 Water resources decision
Page 91 and 92: frameworks for decision making are
Page 93 and 94: Adaptive capacity is the least expl
Page 95 and 96: tions, discussion, feedback, and re
Page 97 and 98: water quality in downstream reservo
Page 99 and 100: 25 years, as predicted by the Energ
Page 101 and 102: forecasting, however, is hampered b
Page 103 and 104: 3.2.5 Reliability and Trustworthine
Page 105 and 106: mental conditions (e.g., demands fo
Page 107 and 108: it must involve an extended group o
Page 109 and 110: egional population and economic gro
Page 111 and 112: Decision-Support Experiments and Ev
Page 113 and 114: to the gravity of its consequences.
Page 115: Decision-Support Experiments and Ev
Page 119 and 120: including ecological restoration, r
Page 121 and 122: For example, observed global sea-le
Page 123 and 124: into the Pacific Ocean. The Norther
Page 125 and 126: leaders in considering climate chan
Page 127 and 128: and communities vulnerable to wildf
Page 129 and 130: tion patterns. There are concerns t
Page 131 and 132: forecasts in the region also enhanc
Page 133 and 134: knowledge, as well as development o
Page 135 and 136: obust communication in which each s
Page 137 and 138: Organizational measures to hasten,
Page 139 and 140: and, thus, able to span the domains
Page 141 and 142: in climate and weather (Garfin and
Page 143 and 144: local water supply sector: the grow
Page 145 and 146: investment” efforts and their eff
Page 147 and 148: time by the interest of groups to c
Page 149 and 150: Case Study F: Southeast Climate Con
Page 151 and 152: ect application of climate science
Page 153 and 154: a receptive audience for new tools
Page 155 and 156: strength offered by the case study
Page 157 and 158: CHAPTER 5 5.1 INTRODUCTION The futu
Page 159 and 160: poverty, and resources are required
Page 161 and 162: Fostering inclusive, equitable acce
Page 163 and 164: effective in managing problems, or
Page 165 and 166: 5.3.1 A Better Understanding of Vul
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on climate variability and water re
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apid development of better decision
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APPENDIX A Decision-Support Experim
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APPENDIX B Decision-Support Experim
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GLOSSARY AND ACRONYMS adaptive capa
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ACRONYMS AND ABBREVIATIONS ACCAP Al
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REFERENCES References marked with (
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Atger, F., 2003: Spatial and intera
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Hughes, M.K. and P.M. Brown, 1992:
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of seasonal forecasts. Bulletin of
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Brandon, D., B. Udall, and J. Lowre
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Georgia Forestry Commission, 2007:
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Leatherman, S.P. and G. White, 2005
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Pringle, C.M., 2000: Threats to U.S
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Yarnal, B., A.L. Heasley, R.E. O’
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Gallaher, B.M. and R.J. Koch, 2004:
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McNie, E.C., 2007: Reconciling the
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* Trimble, P.J., E.R. Santee, and C
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Hartmann, H., 2001: Stakeholder Dri
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PHOTGRAPHY CREDITS Cover/Title Page
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