Decision support experiments and evaluations using seasonal to ...

The U.S. Climate Change Science Program
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Figure 4.1 Map of Sacramento and San Joaquin River Delta.
upgrading or constructing new roadways, airport
runways, or wastewater treatment plants,
which may already include flood protection;
project managers now recognize the need to
consider sea-level rise in planning activities
(i.e., OFCM, 2002).
In order to incorporate new sources of risk
into engineering analysis, the meteorological
and hydrology communities need to define
and communicate current and increasing risks
clearly, and convey them coherently, with explicit
consideration of the inherent uncertainties.
Research needed to support regional stakeholders
include: further reducing uncertainties
associated with sea-level rise, providing more
reliable predictions of changes in frequency and
intensity of tropical and extra-tropical storms,
and determining how saltwater intrusion will
impact freshwater. Finally, regional climate
model simulations and statistical techniques
being used to predict long-term climate change
impacts could be down-scaled to help manage
projected SI climate variability. This could
be especially useful for adaptation planning
(OFCM, 2007a).
Experiment 3:
Integrated Forecast and Reservoir Management
(INFORM)—Northern California
The Experiment
The Integrated Forecast and Reservoir Management
(INFORM) project aims to demonstrate
the value of climate, weather, and hydrology
forecasts in reservoir operations. Specific
objectives are to: (1) implement a prototype
integrated forecast-management system for the
Northern California river and reservoir system
in close collaboration with operational forecasting
and management agencies, and (2) demonstrate
the utility of meteorological/climate and
hydrologic forecasts through near-real-time
tests of the integrated system with actual data
and management input.
Background and Context
The Northern California river system (Figure
4.1) encompasses the Trinity, Sacramento,
Feather, American, and San Joaquin river systems,
and the Sacramento-San Joaquin Delta
(see: Experiment 7, CALFED) 2 . The Sacramento
and San Joaquin Rivers join to form an
extensive delta region and eventually flow out
2 CA. Gov. Welcome to Calfed Bay-Deltas Program.
http://calwater.ca.gov/index.aspx
Chapter 4