Decision support experiments and evaluations using seasonal to ...

strength offered by the case study approach
is that “…only when we confront specific
facts, the raw material on the basis of which
decisions are reached—not general theories
or hypotheses—do the limits of public policy
become apparent (Starling, 1989)”. In short,
case studies put a human face on environmental
decision making by capturing, even if only in a
temporal “snapshot”, the institutional, ethical,
economic, scientific, and other constraints and
factors that influence decisions.
4.5.3 Public Pressures, Social
Movements and Innovation
The extent to which public pressures can compel
innovation in decision-support development
and use is an important area of prospective
research. As has been discussed elsewhere
in this Product, knowledge networks—which
provide linkages between various individuals
and interest groups that allow close, ongoing
communication and information dissemination
among multiple sectors of society involved in
technological and policy innovations—can be
sources of non-hierarchical movement to impel
innovation (Sarewitz and Pielke, 2007; Jacobs,
2005). Such networks can allow continuous
feedback between academics, scientists, policymakers,
and NGOs in at least two ways:
(1) by cooperating in seeking ways to foster
new initiatives, and (2) providing means of
encouraging common evaluative and other assessment
criteria to advance the effectiveness
of such initiatives.
Since the late 1980s, there has arisen an extensive
collection of local, state (in the case of
the United States) and regional/sub-national
climate change-related activities in an array of
developed and developing nations. These activities
are wide-ranging and embrace activities
inspired by various policy goals, some of which
are only indirectly related to climate variability.
These activities include energy efficiency and
conservation programs; land use and transportation
planning; and regional assessment.
In some instances, these activities have been
enshrined in the “climate action plans” of socalled
Annex I nations to the UN Framework
Convention on Climate Change (UNCED, 1992;
Rabe, 2004).
Decision-Support Experiments and Evaluations using Seasonal to
Interannual Forecasts and Observational Data: A Focus on Water Resources
An excellent example of an important network
initiative is the International Council of Local
Environmental Initiatives, or ICLEI is a Toronto,
Canada-based NGO representing local
governments engaged in sustainable development
efforts worldwide. Formed in 1990 at
the conclusion of the World Congress of Local
Governments involving 160 local governments,
it has completed studies of urban energy use
useful for gauging growth in energy production
and consumption in large cities in developing
countries (e.g., Dickinson, 2007; ICLEI, 2007).
ICLEI is helping to provide a framework of
cooperation to evaluate energy, transportation,
and related policies and, in the process, may
be fostering a form of “bottom-up” diffusion
of innovation processes that function across
jurisdictions—and even entire nation-states
(Feldman and Wilt, 1996; 1999). More research
is needed on how, and how effectively networks
actually function and whether their efforts can
shed light on the means by which the diffusion
of innovation can be improved and evaluated.
Another source of public pressure is social
movements for change—hardly unknown in
water policy (e.g., Donahue and Johnston, 1998).
Can public pressures through such movements
actually change the way decision makers look
at available sources of information? Given the
anecdotal evidence, much more research is
warranted. One of the most compelling recent
accounts of how public pressures can change
such perceptions is that by the historian Norris
Hundley on the gradual evolution on the part of
city leaders in Los Angeles, California, as well
as members of the public, water agencies, and
state and federal officials—toward diversion of
water from the Owens Valley.
After decades of efforts and pressures from
interested parties to, at first prevent and then
later, roll back, the amount of water taken from
the Owens River, the city of Los Angeles sought
an out-of-court settlement over diversion; in so
doing, they were able to study the reports of environmental
degradation caused by the volumes
of water transferred, and question whether to
compensate the Valley for associated damages
(Hundley, 2001). While Hundley’s chronicling
of resistance has a familiar ring to students of
water policy, remarkably little research has been
done to draw lessons using the grounded theory
While uncertainty
is an inevitable
factor in regards to
climate variability and
weather information,
the communication
of uncertainty—as
our discussion has
shown—can be
significantly improved.
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