Decision support experiments and evaluations using seasonal to ...

The U.S. Climate Change Science Program
Much more needs
to be known about
how to make
decision makers
aware of their
possible vulnerability
from climate
variability impacts
to water resources.
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do not have the same access or the consequent
ability to respond (Hartmann, 2001). This is
especially true where there are no alternatives to
private competitive markets where asymmetries
of economic buying power may affect information
access. Scientific information that is not
properly disseminated can inadvertently result
in windfall profits for some and disadvantage
others (Pfaff et al., 1999; Broad and Agrawalla,
2000; Broad et al., 2002). Access and equity issues
also need to be explored in more detail.
4.5.1 Understanding Decision-Makers’
Perceptions of Climate Vulnerability
Much more needs to be known about how to
make decision makers aware of their possible
vulnerability from climate variability impacts
to water resources. Research on the influence of
climate science on water management in western
Australia, for example, (Power et al., 2005)
suggests that water resource decision makers
can be persuaded to act on climate variability
information if a strategic program of research
in support of specific decisions (e.g., extended
drought) can be wedded to a dedicated, timely
risk communication program.
While we know, based on research in specific
applications, that managers who find climate
forecasts and projections to be reliable may be
more likely to use them, those most likely to use
weather and climate information are individu-
als who have experienced weather and climate
problems in the recent past. The implication of
this finding is that simply delivering weather
and climate information to potential users
may be insufficient in those cases in which
the manager does not perceive climate to be a
hazard—at least in humid, water-rich regions of
the United States that we have studied 5 .
We also need to know more about how the financial,
regulatory, and management contexts
influence perceptions of usefulness (Yarnal et
al., 2006; Dow et al., 2007). Experience suggests
that individual responses, in the aggregate, may
have important impacts on one’s capacity to use,
access, and interpret information. Achieving
a better understanding of these factors and of
the informational needs of resource managers
will require more investigation of their working
environments and intimate understanding of
their organizational constraints, motivations,
and institutional rewards.
4.5.2 Possible Research Methodologies
Case studies increase understanding of how
decisions are made by giving specific examples
of decisions and lessons learned. A unique
5 Additional research on water system manager
perceptions is needed, in regions with varying hydrometeorological
conditions, to discern if this finding is
universally true.
Chapter 4