Decision support experiments and evaluations using seasonal to ...

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Decision-Support Experiments and Ev
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TABLE OF CONTENTS Abstract ........
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TABLE OF CONTENTS 5................
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ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS The authors would
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ABSTRACT Faced with mounting pressu
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PREFACE Report Motivation and Guida
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EXECUTIVE SUMMARY ES.1 WHAT IS DECI
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• Improved bias corrections in ex
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• • ness with customized produc
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CHAPTER 1 1.1 INTRODUCTION Increasi
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western United States and is the ba
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Study or Experiment Chapter CPC Sea
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Study or Experiment Chapter Interpr
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Study or Experiment Chapter Integra
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Study or Experiment Chapter Regiona
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Study or Experiment Chapter Murray-
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Study or Experiment Chapter Integra
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Study or Experiment Chapter Regiona
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Study or Experiment Chapter Murray-
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CHAPTER 2 KEY FINDINGS Decision-Sup
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2.1 INTRODUCTION In the past, water
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data and forecast products that sup
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BOX 2.2: Forecast Approaches Decisi
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cal elements, including models, dat
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a sub-seasonal lead time, the singl
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The hydrologic and water resources
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forecasts link to CPC drought produ
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losses of snowpack and the tendenci
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At NCEP, the dynamical tool, CFS, i
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2.4.1 Improving Seasonal-to- Intera
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climate variations. The rationale f
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2.4.2.2 improvementS in hydrologic
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BOX 2.3: The CPC Seasonal Drought O
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Koch’s research to operational pr
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BOX 2.4: What Role Can a "Testbed"
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satisfy all users. The Advanced Hyd
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discuss impediments to forecast inf
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Commission (SRBC) to pave the way f
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BOX 3.1: Georgia Drought Decision-S
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Figure 3.1 Water resources decision
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frameworks for decision making are
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Adaptive capacity is the least expl
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tions, discussion, feedback, and re
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water quality in downstream reservo
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25 years, as predicted by the Energ
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forecasting, however, is hampered b
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3.2.5 Reliability and Trustworthine
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mental conditions (e.g., demands fo
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it must involve an extended group o
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egional population and economic gro
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to the gravity of its consequences.
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including ecological restoration, r
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For example, observed global sea-le
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into the Pacific Ocean. The Norther
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leaders in considering climate chan
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and communities vulnerable to wildf
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tion patterns. There are concerns t
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forecasts in the region also enhanc
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knowledge, as well as development o
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obust communication in which each s
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Organizational measures to hasten,
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and, thus, able to span the domains
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in climate and weather (Garfin and
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local water supply sector: the grow
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investment” efforts and their eff
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time by the interest of groups to c
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Case Study F: Southeast Climate Con
Page 151 and 152: ect application of climate science
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Page 155 and 156: strength offered by the case study
Page 157 and 158: CHAPTER 5 5.1 INTRODUCTION The futu
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Page 161 and 162: Fostering inclusive, equitable acce
Page 163 and 164: effective in managing problems, or
Page 165 and 166: 5.3.1 A Better Understanding of Vul
Page 167 and 168: on climate variability and water re
Page 169 and 170: apid development of better decision
Page 171 and 172: APPENDIX A Decision-Support Experim
Page 173 and 174: APPENDIX B Decision-Support Experim
Page 175 and 176: GLOSSARY AND ACRONYMS adaptive capa
Page 177 and 178: ACRONYMS AND ABBREVIATIONS ACCAP Al
Page 179 and 180: REFERENCES References marked with (
Page 181 and 182: Atger, F., 2003: Spatial and intera
Page 183 and 184: Hughes, M.K. and P.M. Brown, 1992:
Page 185 and 186: of seasonal forecasts. Bulletin of
Page 187 and 188: Brandon, D., B. Udall, and J. Lowre
Page 189 and 190: Georgia Forestry Commission, 2007:
Page 191 and 192: Leatherman, S.P. and G. White, 2005
Page 193 and 194: Pringle, C.M., 2000: Threats to U.S
Page 195 and 196: Yarnal, B., A.L. Heasley, R.E. O’
Page 197 and 198: Gallaher, B.M. and R.J. Koch, 2004:
Page 199 and 200: McNie, E.C., 2007: Reconciling the
Page 201: * Trimble, P.J., E.R. Santee, and C
Page 205 and 206: PHOTGRAPHY CREDITS Cover/Title Page
Page 207 and 208: Global Change Research Information
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