Decision support experiments and evaluations using seasonal to ...

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II TABLE OF CONTENTS 3.......................................................................................................................................................... 65 Decision-Support Experiments Within the Water Resource Management Sector ................................................................................................................. 65 Key Findings ...................................................................................................................................... 65 3.1 Introduction ............................................................................................................................... 66 3.2 What Decisions Do Water Users Make, What are Their Decision-Support Needs, and What Roles Can Decision-Support Systems Play in Meeting These Needs? ......... 67 3.2.1 Range and Attributes of Water Resource Decisions ....................................................... 67 3.2.2 Decision-Support Needs of Water Managers for Climate Information ....................... 73 3.2.3 How Does Climate Variability Affect Water Management? .......................................... 75 3.2.4 Institutional Factors That Inhibit Information Use in Decision-Support Systems ....... 85 3.2.5 Reliability and Trustworthiness as Problems in Collaboration ....................................... 87 3.3 What are the Challenges in Fostering Collaboration Between Scientists and Decision Makers? ............................................................................................................................. 90 3.3.1 General Problems in Fostering Collaboration ................................................................... 90 3.3.2 Scientists Need to Communicate Better and Decision Makers Need a Better Understanding of Uncertainty—it is Embedded in Science. ................................................... 96 3.4 Summary ..................................................................................................................................... 98 4........................................................................................................................................................ 101 Making Decision-Support Information Useful, Useable, and Responsive to Decision-Maker Needs .................................................................................................... 101 Key Findings .................................................................................................................................... 101 4.1 Introduction ............................................................................................................................. 102 4.2 Decision-Support Tools for Climate Forecasts: Serving End-user Needs, Promoting User Engagement and Accessibility ..................................................................... 102 4.2.1 Decision-Support Experiments on Seasonal-to-Interannual Climate Variability ........102 4.2.2 Organizational and Institutional Dimensions of Decision-Support Experiments .......113 4.3 Approaches to Building User Knowledge and Enhancing Capacity Building ............115 4.3.1 Boundary-Spanning Organizations as Intermediaries Between Scientists and Decision Makers ...........................................................................................................................115 4.3.2 Regional Integrated Science and Assessment Teams (RISAs)—An Opportunity for Boundary Spanning, and a Challenge ..................................................................................118 4.3.3 Developing Knowledge-Action Systems—a Climate for Inclusive Management ....... 119 4.3.4 The Value of User-Driven Decision Support .................................................................. 121 4.3.5 Proactive Leadership—Championing Change ............................................................... 122 4.3.6 Funding and Long-Term Capacity Investments Must Be Stable and Predictable ...... 125 4.3.7 Adaptive Management for Water Resources Planning—Implications for Decision Support ......................................................................................................................... 125 4.3.8 Integrated Water Resources Planning—Local Water Supply and Adaptive Management ................................................................................................................................ 126 4.3.9 Measurable Indicators of Progress to Promote Information Access and Use ............ 130 4.3.10 Monitoring Progress ........................................................................................................ 132 4.4 Summary Findings and Conclusions ................................................................................... 136 4.5 Future Research Needs and Priorities .............................................................................. 137 4.5.1 Understanding Decision Makers’ Perceptions of Climate Vulnerability ...................... 138 4.5.2 Possible Research Methodologies .................................................................................... 138 4.5.3 Public Pressures, Social Movements and Innovation .................................................... 139
TABLE OF CONTENTS 5........................................................................................................................................................ 141 Looking Toward The Future ............................................................................................... 141 5.1 Introduction ............................................................................................................................. 141 5.2 Overarching Themes and Findings ..................................................................................... 141 5.2.1 The “Loading Dock Model” of Information Transfer is Unworkable .......................... 141 5.2.2 Decision Support is a Process Rather Than a Product ................................................. 142 5.2.3 Equity May Not Be Served .............................................................................................. 142 5.2.4 Science Citizenship Plays an Important Role in Developing Appropriate Solutions........................................................................................................................................ 145 5.2.5 Trends and Reforms in Water Resources Provide New Perspectives ......................... 146 5.2.6 Useful Evaluation of Applications of Climate Variation Forecasts Requires Innovative Approaches ................................................................................................................ 148 5.3 Research Priorities ................................................................................................................. 148 5.3.1 A Better Understanding of Vulnerability is Essential..................................................... 149 5.3.2 Improving Hydrologic and Climate Forecasts ................................................................ 149 5.3.3 Better Integration of Climate Information into Decision Making ............................... 150 5.3.4 Better Balance Between Physical Science and Social Science ..................................... 151 5.3.5 Better Understanding of the Implications of Small-Scale, Tailored Decision-Support Tools is Needed............................................................................................. 152 5.4 The Application of Lessons Learned from this Report to Other Sectors .............. 153 Appendix A ................................................................................................................................... 155 Transitioning National Weather Service Hydrologic Research Into Operations Appendix B ................................................................................................................................... 157 How the National Weather Service Prioritizes the Development of Improved Hydrologic Forecasts Glossary and Acronyms ......................................................................................................... 159 References ..................................................................................................................................... 163 III
Page 1 and 2: Decision-Support Experiments and Ev
Page 5: TABLE OF CONTENTS Abstract ........
Page 9 and 10: ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS The authors would
Page 11 and 12: ABSTRACT Faced with mounting pressu
Page 15 and 16: PREFACE Report Motivation and Guida
Page 17 and 18: EXECUTIVE SUMMARY ES.1 WHAT IS DECI
Page 19 and 20: • Improved bias corrections in ex
Page 21 and 22: • • ness with customized produc
Page 23 and 24: CHAPTER 1 1.1 INTRODUCTION Increasi
Page 25 and 26: western United States and is the ba
Page 29 and 30: Study or Experiment Chapter CPC Sea
Page 31 and 32: Study or Experiment Chapter Interpr
Page 33 and 34: Study or Experiment Chapter Integra
Page 35 and 36: Study or Experiment Chapter Regiona
Page 37 and 38: Study or Experiment Chapter Murray-
Page 39 and 40: Study or Experiment Chapter Integra
Page 41 and 42: Study or Experiment Chapter Regiona
Page 43 and 44: Study or Experiment Chapter Murray-
Page 45 and 46: CHAPTER 2 KEY FINDINGS Decision-Sup
Page 47 and 48: 2.1 INTRODUCTION In the past, water
Page 49 and 50: data and forecast products that sup
Page 51 and 52: BOX 2.2: Forecast Approaches Decisi
Page 53 and 54: cal elements, including models, dat
Page 55 and 56: a sub-seasonal lead time, the singl
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The hydrologic and water resources
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forecasts link to CPC drought produ
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losses of snowpack and the tendenci
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At NCEP, the dynamical tool, CFS, i
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Decision-Support Experiments and Ev
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2.4.1 Improving Seasonal-to- Intera
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climate variations. The rationale f
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2.4.2.2 improvementS in hydrologic
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BOX 2.3: The CPC Seasonal Drought O
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Koch’s research to operational pr
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BOX 2.4: What Role Can a "Testbed"
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satisfy all users. The Advanced Hyd
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CHAPTER 3 KEY FINDINGS Decision-Sup
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discuss impediments to forecast inf
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Commission (SRBC) to pave the way f
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BOX 3.1: Georgia Drought Decision-S
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Figure 3.1 Water resources decision
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frameworks for decision making are
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Adaptive capacity is the least expl
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tions, discussion, feedback, and re
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water quality in downstream reservo
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25 years, as predicted by the Energ
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forecasting, however, is hampered b
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3.2.5 Reliability and Trustworthine
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mental conditions (e.g., demands fo
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it must involve an extended group o
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egional population and economic gro
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to the gravity of its consequences.
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CHAPTER 4 KEY FINDINGS Decision-Sup
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including ecological restoration, r
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For example, observed global sea-le
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into the Pacific Ocean. The Norther
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leaders in considering climate chan
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and communities vulnerable to wildf
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tion patterns. There are concerns t
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forecasts in the region also enhanc
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knowledge, as well as development o
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obust communication in which each s
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Organizational measures to hasten,
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and, thus, able to span the domains
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in climate and weather (Garfin and
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local water supply sector: the grow
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investment” efforts and their eff
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time by the interest of groups to c
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Case Study F: Southeast Climate Con
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ect application of climate science
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a receptive audience for new tools
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strength offered by the case study
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CHAPTER 5 5.1 INTRODUCTION The futu
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poverty, and resources are required
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Fostering inclusive, equitable acce
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effective in managing problems, or
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5.3.1 A Better Understanding of Vul
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on climate variability and water re
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apid development of better decision
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APPENDIX A Decision-Support Experim
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APPENDIX B Decision-Support Experim
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GLOSSARY AND ACRONYMS adaptive capa
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ACRONYMS AND ABBREVIATIONS ACCAP Al
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REFERENCES References marked with (
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Atger, F., 2003: Spatial and intera
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Hughes, M.K. and P.M. Brown, 1992:
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of seasonal forecasts. Bulletin of
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Brandon, D., B. Udall, and J. Lowre
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Georgia Forestry Commission, 2007:
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Leatherman, S.P. and G. White, 2005
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Pringle, C.M., 2000: Threats to U.S
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Yarnal, B., A.L. Heasley, R.E. O’
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Gallaher, B.M. and R.J. Koch, 2004:
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McNie, E.C., 2007: Reconciling the
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* Trimble, P.J., E.R. Santee, and C
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Hartmann, H., 2001: Stakeholder Dri
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PHOTGRAPHY CREDITS Cover/Title Page
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