The U.S. Climate Change Science Program Preface VIII RECOMMENDED CITATIONS For the Report as a whole: CCSP, 2008: <strong>Decision</strong>-Support Experiments <strong>and</strong> Evaluations <strong>using</strong> Seasonal-<strong>to</strong>-Interannual Forecasts <strong>and</strong> Observational Data: A Focus on Water Resources. A Report by the U.S. Climate Change Science Program <strong>and</strong> the Subcommittee on Global Change Research [Nancy Beller-Simms, Helen Ingram, David Feldman, Nathan Mantua, Katharine L. Jacobs, <strong>and</strong> Anne M. Waple (eds.)]. NOAA’s National Climatic Data Center, Asheville, NC, 192 pp. For the Preface: Beller-Simms, N., H. Ingram, D. Feldman, N. Mantua, <strong>and</strong> K.L. Jacobs, 2008: Preface. In: <strong>Decision</strong>-Support Experiments <strong>and</strong> Evaluations <strong>using</strong> Seasonal-<strong>to</strong>-Interannual Forecasts <strong>and</strong> Observational Data: A Focus on Water Resources. A Report by the U.S. Climate Change Science Program <strong>and</strong> the Subcommittee on Global Change Research [Nancy Beller-Simms, Helen Ingram, David Feldman, Nathan Mantua, Katharine L. Jacobs, <strong>and</strong> Anne M. Waple (eds.)]. NOAA’s National Climatic Data Center, Asheville, NC, pp. XI–XII. For the Executive Summary: Ingram, H., D. Feldman, N. Mantua, K.L. Jacobs, A. M. Waple, <strong>and</strong> N. Beller-Simms, 2008: Executive Summary. In: <strong>Decision</strong>-Support Experiments <strong>and</strong> Evaluations <strong>using</strong> Seasonal-<strong>to</strong>-Interannual Forecasts <strong>and</strong> Observational Data: A Focus on Water Resources. A Report by the U.S. Climate Change Science Program <strong>and</strong> the Subcommittee on Global Change Research [Nancy Beller-Simms, Helen Ingram, David Feldman, Nathan Mantua, Katharine L. Jacobs, <strong>and</strong> Anne M. Waple (eds.)]. NOAA’s National Climatic Data Center, Asheville, NC, pp. 1-6. For Chapter 1: Ingram, H., D. Feldman, N. Mantua, K.L. Jacobs, D. Fort, N. Beller-Simms, <strong>and</strong> A. M. Waple, 2008: The Changing Context. In: <strong>Decision</strong>-Support Experiments <strong>and</strong> Evaluations <strong>using</strong> Seasonal-<strong>to</strong>-Interannual Forecasts <strong>and</strong> Observational Data: A Focus on Water Resources. A Report by the U.S. Climate Change Science Program <strong>and</strong> the Subcommittee on Global Change Research [Nancy Beller-Simms, Helen Ingram, David Feldman, Nathan Mantua, Katharine L. Jacobs, <strong>and</strong> Anne M. Waple (eds.)]. NOAA’s National Climatic Data Center, Asheville, NC, pp. 7-28. For Chapter 2: Mantua, N., M.D. Dettinger, T.C. Pagano, A.W. Wood, K. Redmond, <strong>and</strong> P. Restrepo, 2008: A Description <strong>and</strong> Evaluation of Hydrologic <strong>and</strong> Climate Forecast <strong>and</strong> Data Products that Support <strong>Decision</strong>-Making for Water Resource Managers. In: <strong>Decision</strong>-Support Experiments <strong>and</strong> Evaluations <strong>using</strong> Seasonal-<strong>to</strong>-Interannual Forecasts <strong>and</strong> Observational Data: A Focus on Water Resources. A Report by the U.S. Climate Change Science Program <strong>and</strong> the Subcommittee on Global Change Research [Nancy Beller-Simms, Helen Ingram, David Feldman, Nathan Mantua, Katharine L. Jacobs, <strong>and</strong> Anne M. Waple (eds.)]. NOAA’s National Climatic Data Center, Asheville, NC, pp. 29-64. For Chapter 3: Feldman, D.L., K.L. Jacobs, G. Garfin, A. Georgakakos, B. Morehouse, R. Webb, B. Yarnal, J. Kochendorfer, C. Rosenzweig, M. Sale, B. Udall, <strong>and</strong> C. Woodhouse, 2008: <strong>Decision</strong>-Support Experiments Within the Water Resource Management Sec<strong>to</strong>r. In: <strong>Decision</strong>-Support Experiments <strong>and</strong> Evaluations <strong>using</strong> Seasonal-<strong>to</strong>-Interannual Forecasts <strong>and</strong> Observational Data: A Focus on Water Resources. A Report by the U.S. Climate Change Science Program <strong>and</strong> the Subcommittee on Global Change Research [Nancy Beller-Simms, Helen Ingram, David Feldman, Nathan Mantua, Katharine L. Jacobs, <strong>and</strong> Anne M. Waple (eds.)]. NOAA’s National Climatic Data Center, Asheville, NC, pp. 65-100.
<strong>Decision</strong>-Support Experiments <strong>and</strong> Evaluations <strong>using</strong> Seasonal <strong>to</strong> Interannual Forecasts <strong>and</strong> Observational Data: A Focus on Water Resources For Chapter 4: Feldman, D.L., K.L. Jacobs, G. Garfin, A. Georgakakos, B. Morehouse, P. Restrepo, R. Webb, B. Yarnal, D. Basketfield, H.C. Hartmann, J. Kochendorfer, C. Rosenzweig, M. Sale, B. Udall, <strong>and</strong> C. Woodhouse, 2008: Making <strong>Decision</strong>-Support Information Useful, Useable, <strong>and</strong> Responsive <strong>to</strong> <strong>Decision</strong>-Maker Needs. In: <strong>Decision</strong>-Support Experiments <strong>and</strong> Evaluations <strong>using</strong> Seasonal-<strong>to</strong>-Interannual Forecasts <strong>and</strong> Observational Data: A Focus on Water Resources. A Report by the U.S. Climate Change Science Program <strong>and</strong> the Subcommittee on Global Change Research [Nancy Beller-Simms, Helen Ingram, David Feldman, Nathan Mantua, Katharine L. Jacobs, <strong>and</strong> Anne M. Waple (eds.)]. NOAA’s National Climatic Data Center, Asheville, NC, pp. 101-140. For Chapter 5 Ingram, H., D.L. Feldman, K.L. Jacobs, N. Mantua, M.C. Lemos, B. Morehouse, A. M. Waple, <strong>and</strong> N. Beller-Simms, 2008: Looking Toward the Future. In: <strong>Decision</strong>-Support Experiments <strong>and</strong> Evaluations <strong>using</strong> Seasonal-<strong>to</strong>-Interannual Forecasts <strong>and</strong> Observational Data: A Focus on Water Resources. A Report by the U.S. Climate Change Science Program <strong>and</strong> the Subcommittee on Global Change Research [Nancy Beller-Simms, Helen Ingram, David Feldman, Nathan Mantua, Katharine L. Jacobs, <strong>and</strong> Anne M. Waple (eds.)]. NOAA’s National Climatic Data Center, Asheville, NC, pp. 141-154. For Appendix A Mantua, N., M.D. Dettinger, T.C. Pagano, A.W. Wood, K. Redmond, <strong>and</strong> P. Restrepo, 2008: Transitioning the National Weather Service Hydrologic Research in<strong>to</strong> Operations. In: <strong>Decision</strong>-Support Experiments <strong>and</strong> Evaluations <strong>using</strong> Seasonal -<strong>to</strong>-Interannual Forecasts <strong>and</strong> Observational Data: A Focus on Water Resources. A Report by the U.S. Climate Change Science Program <strong>and</strong> the Subcommittee on Global Change Research [Nancy Beller-Simms, Helen Ingram, David Feldman, Nathan Mantua, Katharine L. Jacobs, <strong>and</strong> Anne M. Waple (eds.)]. NOAA’s National Climatic Data Center, Asheville, NC, pp. 155-156. For Appendix B Mantua, N., M.D. Dettinger, T.C. Pagano, A.W. Wood, K. Redmond, <strong>and</strong> P. Restrepo, 2008: How the National Weather Service Prioritizes the Development of Improved Hydrologic Forecasts. In: <strong>Decision</strong>-Support Experiments <strong>and</strong> Evaluations <strong>using</strong> Seasonal-<strong>to</strong>-Interannual Forecasts <strong>and</strong> Observational Data: A Focus on Water Resources. A Report by the U.S. Climate Change Science Program <strong>and</strong> the Subcommittee on Global Change Research [Nancy Beller-Simms, Helen Ingram, David Feldman, Nathan Mantua, Katharine L. Jacobs, <strong>and</strong> Anne M. Waple (eds.)]. NOAA’s National Climatic Data Center, Asheville, NC, pp. 157-158. IX
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- Page 9 and 10: ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS The authors would
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At NCEP, the dynamical tool, CFS, i
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Decision-Support Experiments and Ev
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2.4.1 Improving Seasonal-to- Intera
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climate variations. The rationale f
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2.4.2.2 improvementS in hydrologic
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BOX 2.3: The CPC Seasonal Drought O
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Koch’s research to operational pr
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BOX 2.4: What Role Can a "Testbed"
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satisfy all users. The Advanced Hyd
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CHAPTER 3 KEY FINDINGS Decision-Sup
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discuss impediments to forecast inf
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Commission (SRBC) to pave the way f
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BOX 3.1: Georgia Drought Decision-S
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Figure 3.1 Water resources decision
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frameworks for decision making are
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Adaptive capacity is the least expl
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tions, discussion, feedback, and re
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water quality in downstream reservo
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25 years, as predicted by the Energ
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forecasting, however, is hampered b
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3.2.5 Reliability and Trustworthine
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mental conditions (e.g., demands fo
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it must involve an extended group o
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egional population and economic gro
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Decision-Support Experiments and Ev
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to the gravity of its consequences.
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Decision-Support Experiments and Ev
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CHAPTER 4 KEY FINDINGS Decision-Sup
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including ecological restoration, r
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For example, observed global sea-le
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into the Pacific Ocean. The Norther
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leaders in considering climate chan
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and communities vulnerable to wildf
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tion patterns. There are concerns t
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forecasts in the region also enhanc
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knowledge, as well as development o
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obust communication in which each s
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Organizational measures to hasten,
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and, thus, able to span the domains
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in climate and weather (Garfin and
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local water supply sector: the grow
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investment” efforts and their eff
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time by the interest of groups to c
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Case Study F: Southeast Climate Con
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ect application of climate science
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a receptive audience for new tools
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strength offered by the case study
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CHAPTER 5 5.1 INTRODUCTION The futu
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poverty, and resources are required
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Fostering inclusive, equitable acce
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effective in managing problems, or
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5.3.1 A Better Understanding of Vul
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on climate variability and water re
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apid development of better decision
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APPENDIX A Decision-Support Experim
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APPENDIX B Decision-Support Experim
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GLOSSARY AND ACRONYMS adaptive capa
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ACRONYMS AND ABBREVIATIONS ACCAP Al
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REFERENCES References marked with (
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Atger, F., 2003: Spatial and intera
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Hughes, M.K. and P.M. Brown, 1992:
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of seasonal forecasts. Bulletin of
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Brandon, D., B. Udall, and J. Lowre
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Georgia Forestry Commission, 2007:
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Leatherman, S.P. and G. White, 2005
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Pringle, C.M., 2000: Threats to U.S
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Yarnal, B., A.L. Heasley, R.E. O’
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Gallaher, B.M. and R.J. Koch, 2004:
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McNie, E.C., 2007: Reconciling the
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* Trimble, P.J., E.R. Santee, and C
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Hartmann, H., 2001: Stakeholder Dri
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PHOTGRAPHY CREDITS Cover/Title Page
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Global Change Research Information