Decision support experiments and evaluations using seasonal to ...

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The U.S. Climate Change Science Program Appendices 156 Hydrology projects, the Statement of Need requires the endorsement of a field office. The Concept Exploration and Definition stage requires the preparation of the following documents: 1. The Exploratory Research Results Document which, as required for research projects, documents the results from exploratory research to determine effectiveness, use, or concept for associated need or opportunity, and documents the availability of already-developed solutions that will meet the Statement of Need; 2. The Concept of Operations and Operational Requirements Document, which describes how the system operates from the perspective of the user in terms that define the system capabilities required to satisfy the need; and 3. An updated OSIP Project Plan. During the Applied Research and Analysis stage, the team conducts applied research, development, and analysis; identifies possible solutions; defines and documents the technical requirements; prepares a Business Case Analysis (BCA) to present a detailed comparison of the potential alternative solutions, with the recommendation of the working team as to which alternative is preferred. The BCA is a critical element in demonstrating to NWS, NOAA, and Department of Commerce management that a program is a prudent investment and will support and enhance the ability of the NWS to meet current and planned demand for its products and services. This stage requires the preparation of four documents: 1. The Applied Research Evaluation, which documents how the research was carried out, how the processes were validated, and the algorithm description for operational implementation; 2. The Technical Requirements document, which states what the operational system must explicitly address; 3. The Business case, which collects the business case analysis that describes how the system will be used; and 4. An updated OSIP Project Plan. During the Operational Development stage, the team performs the operational development activities summarized in the approved Project Plan as described in the Operational Development Plan. The purpose of this stage is to fully implement the previously selected solution, to verify that the solution meets the operational and technical requirements, to conduct preparations to deploy the solution to operations, and to carry out the actions stated in the Training Plan. During this stage, the team prepares: 1. The Deployment Decision Document, which summarizes the results of the development and verification activities and presents the results of preparations for deployment, support, and training; 2. The Deployment, Maintenance and Assessment Plan, which is the plan for the final OSIP stage; and 3. An updated OSIP Project Plan and other documentation as needed. During the final stage, Deploy, Maintain and Assess, the team performs the deployment activities summarized in the approved Project Plan as described in the Deployment, Assessment, and Lifecycle Support Plan. The primary purpose of this stage is to fully deploy the developed and verified solution.
APPENDIX B Decision-Support Experiments and Evaluations using Seasonal to Interannual Forecasts and Observational Data: A Focus on Water Resources How the National Weather Service Prioritizes the Development of Improved Hydrologic Forecasts Convening Lead Author: Nathan Mantua, Climate Impacts Group, Univ. of Washington Lead Authors: Michael D. Dettinger, U.S. Geological Survey, Scripps Institution of Oceanography; Thomas C. Pagano, National Water and Climate Center, NRCS/USDA; Andrew W. Wood, 3TIER, Inc/Dept. of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Univ. of Washington; Kelly Redmond, Western Regional Climate Center, Desert Research Institute Contributing Author: Pedro Restrepo, NOAA (Adapted from Mary Mulluski’s Hydrologic Services Division [HSD] Requirements Process: How to Solicit, Collect, Refine, and Integrate Formal Ideas into Funded Projects, NWS internal presentation, 2008.) There are three sources of requirements toward the development of improved hydrologic forecasts at the National Weather Service: internal and external forecast improvements, and Web page information improvement. All improvements are coordinated by the National Weather Service Hydrologic Services Division (HSD). • • Biennial National Hydrologic Program Manager’s Conference (HPM) Training classes, workshops, and customer satisfaction surveys A flow diagram of the internal hydrologic forecast process is shown in Figure B.1. The internal hydrologic forecast improvement re- The external requirements for hydrologic forecast imquirements at the National Weather Service are a provements are the results of: result of one of more of these sources: • Congressional mandates • HSD routine support • Office of Inspector General (OIG) requirements • Proposed research and research-to-operations • National Research Council (NRC) recommendaprojects by annual planning teams, with the tions participation of HSD, the Office of Hydrologic • NOAA Coordination Development (OHD), River Forecast Center and Weather Forecast Offices employees • Biennial customer satisfaction surveys • Teams chartered to address specific topics • The result of service assessments • Solicitation by the National Weather Service (NWS) Regions of improved forecast requirements to services leaders • Semi-annual Hydrologists-incharge (HIC), Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service (AHPS) Review Committee (ARC), and HSD Chiefs coordination meetings • Monthly hydro program leader calls • Monthly ARC calls Figure B.1 Hydrologic forecast improvement: internal requirements process. 157
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Decision-Support Experiments and Ev
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TABLE OF CONTENTS Abstract ........
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TABLE OF CONTENTS 5................
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ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS The authors would
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ABSTRACT Faced with mounting pressu
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PREFACE Report Motivation and Guida
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EXECUTIVE SUMMARY ES.1 WHAT IS DECI
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• Improved bias corrections in ex
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• • ness with customized produc
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CHAPTER 1 1.1 INTRODUCTION Increasi
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western United States and is the ba
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Study or Experiment Chapter CPC Sea
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Study or Experiment Chapter Interpr
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Study or Experiment Chapter Integra
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Study or Experiment Chapter Regiona
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Study or Experiment Chapter Murray-
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Study or Experiment Chapter Integra
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Study or Experiment Chapter Regiona
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Study or Experiment Chapter Murray-
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CHAPTER 2 KEY FINDINGS Decision-Sup
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2.1 INTRODUCTION In the past, water
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data and forecast products that sup
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BOX 2.2: Forecast Approaches Decisi
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cal elements, including models, dat
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a sub-seasonal lead time, the singl
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The hydrologic and water resources
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forecasts link to CPC drought produ
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losses of snowpack and the tendenci
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At NCEP, the dynamical tool, CFS, i
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2.4.1 Improving Seasonal-to- Intera
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climate variations. The rationale f
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2.4.2.2 improvementS in hydrologic
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BOX 2.3: The CPC Seasonal Drought O
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Koch’s research to operational pr
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BOX 2.4: What Role Can a "Testbed"
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satisfy all users. The Advanced Hyd
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discuss impediments to forecast inf
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Commission (SRBC) to pave the way f
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BOX 3.1: Georgia Drought Decision-S
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Figure 3.1 Water resources decision
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frameworks for decision making are
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Adaptive capacity is the least expl
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tions, discussion, feedback, and re
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water quality in downstream reservo
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25 years, as predicted by the Energ
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forecasting, however, is hampered b
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3.2.5 Reliability and Trustworthine
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mental conditions (e.g., demands fo
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it must involve an extended group o
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egional population and economic gro
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to the gravity of its consequences.
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including ecological restoration, r
Page 121 and 122: For example, observed global sea-le
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Page 149 and 150: Case Study F: Southeast Climate Con
Page 151 and 152: ect application of climate science
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Page 157 and 158: CHAPTER 5 5.1 INTRODUCTION The futu
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Page 165 and 166: 5.3.1 A Better Understanding of Vul
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Page 169 and 170: apid development of better decision
Page 171: APPENDIX A Decision-Support Experim
Page 175 and 176: GLOSSARY AND ACRONYMS adaptive capa
Page 177 and 178: ACRONYMS AND ABBREVIATIONS ACCAP Al
Page 179 and 180: REFERENCES References marked with (
Page 181 and 182: Atger, F., 2003: Spatial and intera
Page 183 and 184: Hughes, M.K. and P.M. Brown, 1992:
Page 185 and 186: of seasonal forecasts. Bulletin of
Page 187 and 188: Brandon, D., B. Udall, and J. Lowre
Page 189 and 190: Georgia Forestry Commission, 2007:
Page 191 and 192: Leatherman, S.P. and G. White, 2005
Page 193 and 194: Pringle, C.M., 2000: Threats to U.S
Page 195 and 196: Yarnal, B., A.L. Heasley, R.E. O’
Page 197 and 198: Gallaher, B.M. and R.J. Koch, 2004:
Page 199 and 200: McNie, E.C., 2007: Reconciling the
Page 201 and 202: * Trimble, P.J., E.R. Santee, and C
Page 203 and 204: Hartmann, H., 2001: Stakeholder Dri
Page 205 and 206: PHOTGRAPHY CREDITS Cover/Title Page
Page 207 and 208: Global Change Research Information
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