Decision support experiments and evaluations using seasonal to ...

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FEDERAL EXECUTIVE TEAM EDITORIAL TEAM Director, Climate Change Science Program .............................................William J. Brennan Chief Editor: ..................................................................................XXX Director, Climate Change Science Program Office ..................................Peter A. Schultz Lead Associate Agency Editors: Principal Representative .........................................................................xxx to CCSP; Deputy Under Secretary of Commerce for Oceans and Atmosphere, National Graphic Oceanic Design: and Atmospheric ............................................................................xxx Administration .................................Mary M. Glackin Product Technical Lead, Support: National Oceanic ........................................................................xxx and Atmospheric Administration ..........Nancy Beller-Simms Synthesis and Assessment Product Advisory Group Chair; Associate Director, EPA National Center for Environmental Assessment ......................................................Michael W. Slimak FEDERAL EXECUTIVE TEAM Synthesis and Assessment Product Coordinator, Climate Director, Change Climate Science Change Program Science Office Program: .................................................Fabien ................................t J.G. Laurier Special Advisor, National Oceanic and Acting Atmospheric Director, Administration Climate Change ..............................................................Chad Science Program Office: .........Peter A. McNutt A. Schultz Lisa Dilling to provide content for this page EDITORIAL NOAA Assistant AND Administrator, PRODUCTION TEAM Program Planning and Integration Office: ....................................Mary M. Glackin Chair ..........................................................................................................Nancy Beller-Simms, NOAA Scientific Director, Editor NOAA ........................................................................................Jessica Climate Goal: .....................................................Chester Blunden, J. Koblinsky STG, Inc. Scientific Editor ........................................................................................Anne M. Waple, STG, Inc. Scientific Director, Editor NOAA ........................................................................................Christian National Climatic Data Center; Zamarra, STG, Inc. Technical Advisor .....................................................................................David J. Dokken, USGCRP NOAA Program Manager for Climate Production Team Lead ............................................................................. Sara W. Veasey, NOAA Graphic Observations Design Co-Lead and Analysis: ......................................................................... ............................................................Thomas Deborah B. Riddle, R. KarlNOAA Designer ................................................................................................... Brandon Farrar, STG, Inc. Designer Program ................................................................................................... Manager of the NOAA Climate Program Glenn M. Hyatt, NOAA Designer Office ................................................................................................... Climate Change Data and Detection Program; Deborah Misch, STG, Inc. Copy Federal Editor Advisory .............................................................................................. Committee Designated Federal Official: ............Christopher Anne Markel, STG, D. Miller Inc. Copy Editor .............................................................................................. Lesley Morgan, STG, Inc. Copy Editor .............................................................................................. Susan Osborne, STG, Inc. Copy Editor .............................................................................................. Susanne Skok, STG, Inc. Copy Editor .............................................................................................. Mara Sprain, STG, Inc. Copy Editor .............................................................................................. Brooke Stewart, STG, Inc. Technical Support..................................................................................... Jesse Enloe, STG, Inc. This This document, Synthesis and the Assessment first of the Synthesis Product, described and Assessment in the U.S. Products Climate described Change in Science the U.S. Program Climate (CCSP) Change Strategic Science Program Plan, was (CCSP) prepared Strategic in accordance Plan, was with prepared Section in 515 accordance of the Treasury with Section and General 515 of Government the Treasury Appropriations and General Act Government for Fiscal Year Appropriations 2001 (Public Act Law for 106-554) Fiscal Year and 2001 the information (Public Law quality 106-554) act guidelines and the information issued by quality the Department act guidelines of Commerce issued and by NOAA the Department pursuant to of Section Commerce 515 and . NOAA pursuant to Section 515 ). Interagency Committee relies The on CCSP Department Interagency of Commerce Committee and relies NOAA on Department certifications of regarding Commerce compliance and NOAA with certifications Section 515 and regarding Department compliance guidelines with as Section the basis 515 for and determining Department that guidelines this product as the conforms basis for with determining Section 515. that For this purposes product of conforms compliance with with Section Section 515. 515, For this purposes CCSP of Synthesis compliance and Assessment with Section Product 515, this is CCSP an “interpreted Synthesis and product” Assessment as that Product term is is used an “interpreted in NOAA guidelines product” and as that is classified term is used as “highly in NOAA influential”. guidelines This and is document classified does as “highly not express influential”. any regulatory This document policies does of the not United express States any or regulatory any of its policies agencies, of the or provide United States recommendations or any of its for agencies, regulatory or action. provide recommendations for regulatory action.
Decision-Support Experiments and Evaluations using Seasonal-to- Interannual Forecasts and Observational Data: A Focus on Water Resources Synthesis and Assessment Product 5.3 Report by the U.S. Climate Change Science Program and the Subcommittee on Global Change Research EDITED BY: Executive Editor: Nancy Beller-Simms, Contributing Editors: Helen Ingram, David Feldman, Nathan Mantua, Katharine L. Jacobs, and Anne Waple
Page 1: Decision-Support Experiments and Ev
Page 5 and 6: TABLE OF CONTENTS Abstract ........
Page 7 and 8: TABLE OF CONTENTS 5................
Page 9 and 10: ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS The authors would
Page 11 and 12: ABSTRACT Faced with mounting pressu
Page 13 and 14: Decision-Support Experiments and Ev
Page 15 and 16: PREFACE Report Motivation and Guida
Page 17 and 18: EXECUTIVE SUMMARY ES.1 WHAT IS DECI
Page 19 and 20: • Improved bias corrections in ex
Page 21 and 22: • • ness with customized produc
Page 23 and 24: CHAPTER 1 1.1 INTRODUCTION Increasi
Page 25 and 26: western United States and is the ba
Page 27 and 28: Decision-Support Experiments and Ev
Page 29 and 30: Study or Experiment Chapter CPC Sea
Page 31 and 32: Study or Experiment Chapter Interpr
Page 33 and 34: Study or Experiment Chapter Integra
Page 35 and 36: Study or Experiment Chapter Regiona
Page 37 and 38: Study or Experiment Chapter Murray-
Page 39 and 40: Study or Experiment Chapter Integra
Page 41 and 42: Study or Experiment Chapter Regiona
Page 43 and 44: Study or Experiment Chapter Murray-
Page 45 and 46: CHAPTER 2 KEY FINDINGS Decision-Sup
Page 47 and 48: 2.1 INTRODUCTION In the past, water
Page 49 and 50: data and forecast products that sup
Page 51 and 52: BOX 2.2: Forecast Approaches Decisi
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cal elements, including models, dat
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a sub-seasonal lead time, the singl
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The hydrologic and water resources
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forecasts link to CPC drought produ
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losses of snowpack and the tendenci
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At NCEP, the dynamical tool, CFS, i
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Decision-Support Experiments and Ev
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2.4.1 Improving Seasonal-to- Intera
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climate variations. The rationale f
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2.4.2.2 improvementS in hydrologic
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BOX 2.3: The CPC Seasonal Drought O
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Koch’s research to operational pr
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BOX 2.4: What Role Can a "Testbed"
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satisfy all users. The Advanced Hyd
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CHAPTER 3 KEY FINDINGS Decision-Sup
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discuss impediments to forecast inf
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Commission (SRBC) to pave the way f
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BOX 3.1: Georgia Drought Decision-S
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Figure 3.1 Water resources decision
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frameworks for decision making are
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Adaptive capacity is the least expl
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tions, discussion, feedback, and re
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water quality in downstream reservo
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25 years, as predicted by the Energ
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forecasting, however, is hampered b
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3.2.5 Reliability and Trustworthine
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mental conditions (e.g., demands fo
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it must involve an extended group o
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egional population and economic gro
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Page 113 and 114:
to the gravity of its consequences.
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Page 117 and 118:
CHAPTER 4 KEY FINDINGS Decision-Sup
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including ecological restoration, r
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For example, observed global sea-le
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into the Pacific Ocean. The Norther
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leaders in considering climate chan
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and communities vulnerable to wildf
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tion patterns. There are concerns t
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forecasts in the region also enhanc
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knowledge, as well as development o
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obust communication in which each s
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Organizational measures to hasten,
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and, thus, able to span the domains
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in climate and weather (Garfin and
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local water supply sector: the grow
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investment” efforts and their eff
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time by the interest of groups to c
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Case Study F: Southeast Climate Con
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ect application of climate science
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a receptive audience for new tools
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strength offered by the case study
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CHAPTER 5 5.1 INTRODUCTION The futu
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poverty, and resources are required
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Fostering inclusive, equitable acce
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effective in managing problems, or
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5.3.1 A Better Understanding of Vul
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on climate variability and water re
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apid development of better decision
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APPENDIX A Decision-Support Experim
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APPENDIX B Decision-Support Experim
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GLOSSARY AND ACRONYMS adaptive capa
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ACRONYMS AND ABBREVIATIONS ACCAP Al
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REFERENCES References marked with (
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Atger, F., 2003: Spatial and intera
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Hughes, M.K. and P.M. Brown, 1992:
Page 185 and 186:
of seasonal forecasts. Bulletin of
Page 187 and 188:
Brandon, D., B. Udall, and J. Lowre
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Georgia Forestry Commission, 2007:
Page 191 and 192:
Leatherman, S.P. and G. White, 2005
Page 193 and 194:
Pringle, C.M., 2000: Threats to U.S
Page 195 and 196:
Yarnal, B., A.L. Heasley, R.E. O’
Page 197 and 198:
Gallaher, B.M. and R.J. Koch, 2004:
Page 199 and 200:
McNie, E.C., 2007: Reconciling the
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* Trimble, P.J., E.R. Santee, and C
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Hartmann, H., 2001: Stakeholder Dri
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PHOTGRAPHY CREDITS Cover/Title Page
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Global Change Research Information
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