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346M. B. S. F. COSTA ET ALLIlevel increase. From a historical-cultural perspective,we highlight the potential flooding of part of a greenarea of 33,000 m 2 set apart for leisure and a culturalcenter in the Boa Viagem neighborhood (DonaLindu Park). In the optimistic and critical scenarios,the impacted areas would be of approximately 3,100m 2 and 13,200 m 2 in area, respectively.In terms of coastal resources endangered byflooding in Olinda, in an optimistic scenario of sealevel increase, it was mostly the smallerconstructions that were found to be at risk. In acritical scenario, though, taller buildings (>3 stories)are included in the vulnerable area.Among the vulnerable areas of Paulista,Maria Farinha Headland demands attention since itis an area of great ecological and economicimportance. From a historical and culturalperspective, Pau Amarelo Fort and a water parkrelevant for the tourism industry near the MariaFarinha Beach represent potentially impactedpatrimonies.Area (10 5 m 2 )14121086420Paulista (O)Pau lista (C)Olin da (O)Olin da (C)Recife (O)Recife (C)Jaboatão (O)Jaboatão (C)Unoccupied land Beach Wetland Buildings (< 3 levels) Buildings (> 3 levels)Figure 7. Resources at risk in each city for bothscenarios: optimistic and critical.DiscussionThe present analysis was restricted to coastaland estuarine areas, which are the most affected byan increase in the sea level. For this reason it shouldbe made clear that the numbers and debate herepresented are underestimated and that the potentialflood zones in the studied area are even greater,bearing in mind the low altitude of the terrain andvast drainage network that bathes the region andbranches out to other estuarine areas.In terms of environmental impact, weemphasize that important ecological losses mayoccur not only along the estuary – a rich andimportant ecosystem – but also to the south portion,beyond the area studied, to the Paiva Beach. Thissite, as previously mentioned, is a restinga rich inflowers and with typical morphological aspects, withecological potential that justifies better protection ofthis ecosystem (Sacramento et al. 2007).On the coast of Jaboatão dos Guararapes, theloss of beaches and damage to constructions by theshoreline, due to its exposure to the energy of theocean, are common. For this reason, there arecurrently ten coastal defense construction sites alongthe shore, among them seawalls, groins, revetmentsand breakwaters (FINEP/UFPE, 2008). Asmentioned previously, the shoreline of the citypresents a high degree of verticalization, whichincreases the magnitude of the impact caused bycoastal flooding.For Recife, among the areas prone toflooding in both scenarios, attention is drawn toRecife Antigo (Old Recife). It represents animportant economic and administrative center of thecity with great historical and cultural value since it isthe origin of the city of Recife. It is currently ofgreat significance for cultural and artistic activities.Attention should also be given to the factthat the largest estuarine complex in the studied areais located in the city and includes the Pina Basin, theCapibaribe and Beberibe Rivers. The Port of Recifeis also located in the city. This Port, along with thePort of Suape, handles all cargo movements in theState of Pernambuco. The region has sufferedflooding since the beginning of its occupation, butthe intensification of the phenomenon makes anincrease in the silting rate a possibility throughoutthe port area. This would increase the demand fordredging and would potentially be detrimental toport operations.Although the potential flood area is narrowin the coastal strip, the intensification of the erosiveprocess is notable, considering that there arebuildings located very close to the beach, leavinglittle room for morphodynamic processes. As inJaboatão dos Guararapes, the Recife shorelinepresents a high degree of verticalization, to such anextent that the small area of land lost, or endangeredby erosion, would imply in large economic lossesand social disorganization. Additional disturbancecould be implied by the fact that countlessinhabitants use water extracted from the water tableusing wells, which could become unfeasible becauseof saline intrusion.In the sandy coastal regions, it is now wellestablishedthat sea-level rise leads, in average, toerosion and consequent recession of the shoreline(Snoussi & Niazi 2007). Sea-level rise is the maincause of shoreline retreat in coastal areas underdynamic equilibrium, i.e., where the natural sandsupply allows the potential and the effective littoraldrift to be equal. However, on sandy shores, wherethis supply has been strongly reduced (as alreadydiscussed), the main cause of shoreline retreat isPan-American Journal of Aquatic Sciences (2010) 5(2): 341-349