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210L. F. D. FARACO ET ALLIfocused on observing changes in the distribution ofmangroves as a response to relative sea-level rise(Almeida et al. 2008). Gathering results from thisand other studies, Soares (2009) has proposed aconceptual model for the study of the response ofmangroves to climate change, but it focuses,fundamentally, on biophysical aspects.In the extensive mangrove forests of thenorthern coast of Brazil, many long-term studieshave been developed, especially as part of theMADAM project (Berger et al. 1999). Some ofthese focused on biophysical dynamics, such as thetemporal analysis of mangrove distribution byCohen & Lara (2003), who concluded that mangrovestands are losing area in the seaward margin andmigrating landward, possibly as a response torelative sea level rise, but that this migration islimited by local topography. Other studies analyzedthe dependency of local populations on mangroveresources (Glaser 2003), while there were alsostudies that related the response of mangroves tosea-level rise to socioeconomic matters such as landuse and occupation (Lara et al. 2002). In otherregions of the Brazilian coast, studies have measuredextension, retraction and migration of mangroveforests, but without relating them directly to climatechange (e.g. Lacerda et al. 2007).The coast of the Brazilian southern state ofParaná is dominated by the Paranaguá EstuarineComplex (PEC), whose physical, chemical andbiological properties were described by Lana et al.(2001). It has extensive intertidal flats, whichtotalize around 295 km 2 , mostly covered bymangroves (Fig. 1). The whole region is part of aBiosphere Reserve and of the Atlantic RainforestBiome. Around 70% of the region’s surface area isstill covered by this type of forest and associatedecosystems, in stark contrast with most of theBrazilian coast, where this ecosystem has beenlargely destroyed (SOS Mata Atlântica/INPE 2009).The study case site (Fig. 1) is centeredaround the northern part of the PEC, in themunicipality of Guaraqueçaba, where there are twocoastal protected areas (PAs), managed by theBrazilian Federal Government: GuaraqueçabaEcological Station (created in 1982, it encompassesFigure 1. The Paranaguá Estuarine Complex, its extensive mangroves, numerous fishing villages and the no-takeprotected areas that dominate the northern part of the estuary. Source: Adapted from an original map designed by Prof.Mauricio A. Noernberg, CEM/UFPR.Pan-American Journal of Aquatic Sciences (2010), 5(2): 205-223